Receipt

jcs11204 · #1 06-20-2008, 09:05 PM

Today at Belmont Race #8... this horse was full of run, one of the absolute worst trips i have seen in a while.... read the comments in the result charts, it says it all...

jcs11204 · #2 06-20-2008, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not sure it was one of the worst trips in awhile, but he did get shut off pretty good. I imagine he's 4-5 next out.

yea well i saw it different, i had her and the 7 in the pick 4.... i kept my eyes on receipt the whole race, because she was longer odds, and i snuck in a small win bet on her.... anyway, she was full of run, i think she wins easily with a clear trip.

jcs11204 · #3 06-20-2008, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What did you see different? I said she was shut off pretty good. And that she'll probably be 4-5 next out.

you could be right on this one, i think i was just trying to disagree... im getting bored, and i have to stay up till 1230 for my late pick 3 at hollywood....

blackthroatedwind · #4 06-20-2008, 10:22 PM

Here's what really happened in the race.....a strong pace was set with three horses near the lead who all collapsed. The eventual winner was best as she moved earliest, while sitting reasonably close to the collapsing pace, and was still able to hold off the horses that took advantage of the race dynamics. Of course Reciept was closing....she saved all the ground and the race came back to her. She most likely wouldn't have won had she not been shut off, but even if she had, she would need to be downgraded because she would have taken advantage of a dream set up.

Receipt is Fool's Gold.

GPK · #5 06-20-2008, 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

Today at Belmont Race #8... this horse was full of run, one of the absolute worst trips i have seen in a while.... read the comments in the result charts, it says it all...

She wasn't getting by the winner anyways. Tough to bet her trying winners today after that dream trip last out breaking her maiden.

GPK · #6 06-20-2008, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's what really happened in the race.....a strong pace was set with three horses near the lead who all collapsed. The eventual winner was best as she moved earliest, while sitting reasonably close to the collapsing pace, and was still able to hold off the horses that took advantage of the race dynamics. Of course Reciept was closing....she saved all the ground and the race came back to her. She most likely wouldn't have won had she not been shut off, but even if she had, she would need to be downgraded because she would have taken advantage of a dream set up.

Receipt is Fool's Gold.

same thing I said...just more eloquently put

jcs11204 · #7 06-20-2008, 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's what really happened in the race.....a strong pace was set with three horses near the lead who all collapsed. The eventual winner was best as she moved earliest, while sitting reasonably close to the collapsing pace, and was still able to hold off the horses that took advantage of the race dynamics. Of course Reciept was closing....she saved all the ground and the race came back to her. She most likely wouldn't have won had she not been shut off, but even if she had, she would need to be downgraded because she would have taken advantage of a dream set up.

Receipt is Fool's Gold.

every good trip is a dream setup ? its part of racing... she had tons of horse, i have watched the replay 5 times, she is a winner, at worst second if she gets through....

jcs11204 · #8 06-20-2008, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

She wasn't getting by the winner anyways. Tough to bet her trying winners today after that dream trip last out breaking her maiden.

it was not tough for me to bet her, i went 2 deep in the late pick 4, a pick 4 that i hit..... and she was right there IMO....

GPK · #9 06-20-2008, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

it was not tough for me to bet her, i went 2 deep in the late pick 4, a pick 4 that i hit..... and she was right there IMO....

Keep firing away at horses like her...please.

blackthroatedwind · #10 06-20-2008, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

every good trip is a dream setup ? its part of racing... she had tons of horse, i have watched the replay 5 times, she is a winner, at worst second if she gets through....

Sorry for wasting my time trying to help someone as knowledgable as you.

jcs11204 · #11 06-20-2008, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sorry for wasting my time trying to help someone as knowledgable as you.

no.. its not that, it just feels like everything is a attack from you.
and i watched the race 5 times we can have different opinions cant we ? we could both be correct, maybe she is not very good, and also had a horrible trip today

jcs11204 · #12 06-20-2008, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Keep firing away at horses like her...please.

ok

the_fat_man · #13 06-20-2008, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Here's what really happened in the race.....a strong pace was set with three horses near the lead who all collapsed. The eventual winner was best as she moved earliest, while sitting reasonably close to the collapsing pace, and was still able to hold off the horses that took advantage of the race dynamics. Of course Reciept was closing....she saved all the ground and the race came back to her. She most likely wouldn't have won had she not been shut off, but even if she had, she would need to be downgraded because she would have taken advantage of a dream set up.

Receipt is Fool's Gold.

I agree, for the most part, except for the bolded section. If Receipt either gets through or inside-outs entering the stretch, she wins for fun.

The problem I have, however, is that, at least lately, it seems that pretty much every horse that wins on the turf does so with a either a dream setup or good fortune, when the probable winner has trouble. Has me wondering whether any of these ****ers is able to win without getting lucky or a perfect trip. And, more importantly, how predictable the game really is.

blackthroatedwind · #14 06-20-2008, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

no.. its not that, it just feels like everything is a attack from you.
and i watched the race 5 times we can have different opinions cant we ? we could both be correct, maybe she is not very good, and also had a horrible trip today

It's not an attack....it's an actual attempt to try to smarten you up. We aren't " both correct. "

You are in such a hurry to react to what you think you see that you have no ability to step back from any situation and analyze it as a whole. If horse racing was as simplistic as you seem to think it is then it wouldn't be interesting and everything would be obvious. The opposite, in both cases, is true.

The only mistake I make, I guess, is wasting my time trying to explain something that took me over 20 years of my life to understand.

blackthroatedwind · #15 06-20-2008, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I agree, for the most part, except for the bolded section. If Receipt either gets through or inside-outs entering the stretch, she wins for fun.

The problem I have, however, is that, at least lately, it seems that pretty much every horse that wins on the turf does so with a either a dream setup or good fortune, when the probable winner has trouble. Has me wondering whether any of these ****ers is able to win without getting lucky or a perfect trip. And, more importantly, how predictable the game really is.

I don't think the winner had a perfect trip and I think she was the best horse in the race.

As you clearly understand, our job as a horseplayer is hardly to figure out the best horse in any race, it is the figure out the best horse that figures to benefit the most from the way the race will be run.

jcs11204 · #16 06-20-2008, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's not an attack....it's an actual attempt to try to smarten you up. We aren't " both correct. "

You are in such a hurry to react to what you think you see that you have no ability to step back from any situation and analyze it as a whole. If horse racing was as simplistic as you seem to think it is then it wouldn't be interesting and everything would be obvious. The opposite, in both cases, is true.

The only mistake I make, I guess, is wasting my time trying to explain something that took me over 20 years of my life to understand.

why is it a mistake ? if it took you 20 years, i have only been at it for 10, so i have at least another 10 to understand it, just keep working with me