3/20: Fair Grounds ~ Derby Day (6th-14th)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Has the look of a very productive group..

Most Likely: #2 Tulane Tryst 3-1: Exits serious try; Wins with repeat of it.. WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #8 Mr Sippi 6-1: 1st time as 3yo after useful fall tries.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Wild for Wycliff 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Find New Roads 12-1 9th


6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Those with experience appear modest, opening the door for well bred (well meant?) firsters from Sharp (Win Worthy) & Cox (Snow House). McGee's Amerman-home bred Temple City Blvd ~ pedigreed top/bottom for lawn ~ was rained off for debut and is 20-1. Casse exasperated by Commited, but has talent and is liable to connect dots at some point..

Most Likely: #6 Win Worthy 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Snow House 4-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Temple City Blvd 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Committed 6-1 7th


7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Grant Forster turns back Bold Confection, Jose Ortiz signs on and eschews Lasix after tying up post race of her first 2 races. Not losing..

Best Value: #8 BOLD CONFECTION 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Speightharmony 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Rookery 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #7 Firingtothefront 8-1 7th


8th: Costa Rising-LA, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 No Parole 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 Monte Man 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Classy John 12-1 WON ($61.00)
Exotics Use: #14 Bertie's Galaxy SCR


9th: Crescent City Derby-LA, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Who Took the Money 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #7 Unanimously 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Wrongwayhighway 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Highland Creek 6-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

6: 4-6-7 (A), 5-8-9 (B), - (C)
7: 8 (A), - (B), 3-5-7 (C)
8: 2-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-7 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x3x2 = $36 ($18 for .50)
All A's: 3x1x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backups: $27 (3-5-7) + $9 (1-6)


10th: Tom Benson, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Thoroughly impossible with slow-paced Al Stall Memorial the basis for the group with several season-starters looking to interlope. No combination appears outlandish for the pay slots..

Best Value: #5 Winter Sunset 20-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Temple City Terror 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #13 Summer in Saratoga 10-1 WON ($20.20)
Super Add: #10 Winning Envelope 8-1 3rd


11th: New Orleans Classic (G2), 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Owendale feels very likely, but given the lack of pace signed on, Chess Chief looks like a sneaky possibility..

Most Likely: #2 Owendale 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Chess Chief 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #8 Sonneman 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Enforceable 8-1 3rd


12th: Muniz Memorial (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

As discussed Friday, Colonel Liam just gets better and better. Far from a slam dunk though with many solid hard hitters involved..

Most Likely: #5 Colonel Liam 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #6 Logical Myth 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Peace Achieved 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Two Emmys 20-1 2nd


13th: Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Top 3 should cover it, but Li'l Tootsie can take them a long way if left alone..

Best Value: #5 Obligatory 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Clairiere 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Travel Column 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #4 Li'l Tootsie 4-1 5th


14th: Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9.5f

Excellent local group that exchanged blows in Lecomte & Risen Star is enhanced by invasion of Hot Rod Charlie and presence of breakthrough type Run Classic..

Most Likely: #6 Mandaloun 8-5 6th
Next Best: #5 Hot Rod Charlie 3-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #3 Run Classic 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Midnight Bourbon 5-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

10: 5-6-10-13 (A), 3-4-7-12 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
14: 5-6 (A), 3 (B), 4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x1x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $24 (6) + $8 (4) + $24 (4-7)

$0.50 Pick-5 (13/6/1,4,5/2,8/5) Paid $1,133.05


P4 Grid:

11: 2 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
12: 5-6 (A), - (B), 7-9-10-12 (C)
13: 5-6-8 (A), 4 (B), - (C)
14: 3-5-6 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x4x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A's: 1x2x3x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backups: $9 (6) + $24 (7-10)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/1,4,5/2,8/5) Paid $98.85


Good luck!
Steve

[57rick]

Good luck everyone 🐎💰 https://youtu.be/cVnbiYHCb1A

[Kasept]

FG SCR/CHG'S

[moses]

Factor This and Cross Border both scratched. Hmm. So who is the pace in that race with Factor This out? This sequence is frustrating to figure out the pace for races 11 and 12.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by moses

Factor This and Cross Border both scratched. Hmm. So who is the pace in that race with Factor This out? This sequence is frustrating to figure out the pace for races 11 and 12.

Race 11 expect 6 to be on lead and think the 1 will press pace possibly but 6 could get frisky out front.

Race 12 expect 7 and 10 to push pace and go pretty far. Think 8 has a shot here at decent number. Fun betting race

Good luck

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Race 11 expect 6 to be on lead and think the 1 will press pace possibly but 6 could get frisky out front.

Race 12 expect 7 and 10 to push pace and go pretty far. Think 8 has a shot here at decent number. Fun betting race

Good luck

Agreed about race 11. Might be right on race 12. The 9 or 11 could be involved as well.

[goodcopy]

Good luck!
Steve[/quote]
You said when its Easter start to paint eggs

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Race 11 expect 6 to be on lead and think the 1 will press pace possibly but 6 could get frisky out front.

Race 12 expect 7 and 10 to push pace and go pretty far. Think 8 has a shot here at decent number. Fun betting race

Good luck

Got the result you wanted but not how you drew it up!

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Got the result you wanted but not how you drew it up!

Ya was yelling at saez during race lol

[knickslions2]

Nice pick 5 steve

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Nice pick 5 steve

Thanks Tom. Really fun afternoon. Hope many benefitted.

[moses]

Steve you are on fire!

[ontheoutside]

i had a little extra with the stimulas tickling my bank acct this week,,so instead of my usuall a//b plays following steve,,i went all in and played whatever he posted a.b.c plays cost me144 6th pk 4///360 10th pk 5///100 11th pk 4 total cost 604 hit all 3 with payouts of 266/1333/99,for a total of 1698 a plus for the day of 1094,,thank you steve, on another note,,this hot rod charlie horse could have it all,,,, did anyone get the feel watching hid last race,, that his last was even better then this was today? he to me just is kind of horse that WANTS to battle to that wire,,a very good trait

[Kasept]

Nice work Tom! It was a good day. Happy to help.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Steve you are on fire!

THX Mose. Have seen things well past several weeks and made some good choices yesterday on the multis. Needed to have been on board with that Asmussen Galileo in the 6th ~ or less brazen about Grant Forster's filly in the 7th. That was a miscue. But no complaints on the day. Hope everyone got something!

[Bogey]

Steve, excellent work. Congrats!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Steve, excellent work. Congrats!

Gus. Thanks buddy.. Hope you had a good day!