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  #1  
Old 09-02-2018, 02:00 PM
ontheoutside ontheoutside is offline
Hollywood Park
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 964
Default makes no sense to me

why would the best jockey on turf up to a mile
go to the front[and not get it I mite add] when his horse closes 9 lengths last time at 6 in a half
then today moves to a mile and he reverts back to the spped thing
5th race #9 Rosario

foolish after doing what they did last race to do this in this race
esp with added furlongs stupid
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  #2  
Old 09-02-2018, 09:27 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
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He came from 10 lengths back in a sprint where they ran the half mile in :44 4/5. In today's route race, they went the half in :49 3/5. I'm surprised the horse didn't have a 5 length lead. This horse is always up close to the lead in route races, even when they go much quicker than today. The horse went wire to wire once running the half in :48 1/5. This horse has even been up withing a length of the lead routing when they went the half in :45 3/5. And even that day going that fast, she still ran pretty well running 4th and getting beat by only 4 lengths.So I don't know why you would have expected Rosario to come from way out of it when the half was run in :49 3/5. As you said, Rosario is one of the best riders in the country. He is not afraid to come from way out of it when appropriate.
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  #3  
Old 09-02-2018, 11:35 PM
ontheoutside ontheoutside is offline
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Default rupert rupert

let me ask you how does Rosario know the half is going to be run in 49 and change/ I watch over and over and hes 2nd by a half 17 seconds into the race he has no clue its going to be run that slow at that point,
and your point is well taken he goes to the lead all the time
great strategy hes 1 for 6 doing exactly that
he changes around last race and runs his best race lifetime
then goes back to what hes always doing NOT HITTING THE BOARD BY GOING OUT FOR THE LEAD
u have your opinion I have mine
we don't jive
take care
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  #4  
Old 09-03-2018, 03:15 AM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ontheoutside View Post
let me ask you how does Rosario know the half is going to be run in 49 and change/ I watch over and over and hes 2nd by a half 17 seconds into the race he has no clue its going to be run that slow at that point,
and your point is well taken he goes to the lead all the time
great strategy hes 1 for 6 doing exactly that
he changes around last race and runs his best race lifetime
then goes back to what hes always doing NOT HITTING THE BOARD BY GOING OUT FOR THE LEAD
u have your opinion I have mine
we don't jive
take care
The jockey can totally tell how fast he's going 17 seconds into the race. The difference between a :22 second quarter versus a :24 3/5 second quarter is the difference between a horse basically sprinting practically as fast as they can as compared to a horse going at a nice moderate pace. Even a bad jockey can tell the difference between those that. With a filly like this filly, Rosario would pretty much have to be gunning her to get her to go :22. That is about as fast as she can go.

The good jockeys will tell you that they will often times sort of let the horse position himself. Most horses have a comfortable pace that if they are allowed to move at, will maximize that horse's finish. In other words, if you have a horse who likes to move at about a :47 clip, if you gun that horse and make him go :45, he is not going to run as well. He will get very tired and will not run as well as if he is allowed to run the half in :47. And that same horse will also probably not run as well if you take him 15 lengths back and only allow him to go :49 or :50 for the half. So a good jockey will often times try to let a horse sort of position himself at what is a comfortable pace for that horse.

With regard to the filly that Rosario rode, there is no way that you could blame the ride for her poor finish. She has gone much faster than that and won. In addition, the winner in this race was on the lead.

The last time you asked a question and I answered, you got very angry that my opinion was different from yours. There is no reason to get angry. I thought the reason to ask a question is to get opinions. If you have a different opinion that is fine. On this one, I think the vast majority of other posters will agree with me. But that doesn't mean we are right. Horses can change their running styles as they race more. Maybe you are right that this filly has become a filly that likes to come from way out of it, even when the pace is slow. I would say that is very unlikely, but it is certainly possible.

By the way, when she ran in the sprint race and dropped way back, I don't think the jock had much of a choice. She was coming out of route races where she had been running the half mile at an average pace of about :46 or so. Then going back to a sprint where they ran the half in :44 4/5, she couldn't have been on the lead even if Rosario wanted to be. She doesn't really have sprint speed to keep up with a pace like that.

You are correct when you said that she was 1 for 4 going into this race when she was on or near the lead. But in 3 out of those 4 races, she was going very fast. She was running the half in :45 4/5 or :46 1/5 in those defeats. The one time she was on or near the lead with a slow to moderate pace (:48 1/5), she won the race. So she she was actually undefeated in the past when she was on or near the lead with a slow to moderate pace.

Last edited by Rupert Pupkin : 09-03-2018 at 04:32 AM.
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  #5  
Old 09-03-2018, 07:24 PM
ElPrado's Avatar
ElPrado ElPrado is offline
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Oh, Rupert, you're no fun. You make sense.
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