Track Bias thread

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Anytime you think you see a track bias - post about it in this thread. Even if its at an obscure small home track that only you think you play.

Anyone could have ID'd the never ending severe gold rails at PID last summer - or the months and months of non-stop dead rails at Philly Park recently... but it would be kind of cool if people call even more subtle stuff to attention.

In terms of a lot of subtle and debatable biases - here is what Mike Welsch has for GP...

Wednesday, Jan. 5: gorgeous weather, The main track was fast with outside running stalkers and closers having the most success; the paths nearest the rail seemed deepest. The turf was good with the rail set out at 36 and 96 feet; each course yielded a wire-to-wire winner.


Thursday, Jan. 6: Clouds rolled in, and rain was in the forecast. The main track was even sealed before the first of the three straight grass races during the middle of the card, but the wet weather held off, and the track remained fast and the turf firm throughout the program. Once again, the inside part of the strip appeared deeper, and outside stalkers held an edge, although Apriority beat the bias by outlasting 9-5 Groomedforvictory in a wire-to-wire win in the featured eighth race.


Friday, Jan. 7: A change in the wind direction, and with it a change in the track bias. The fast main track suddenly became conducive to speed after favoring outside stalkers and closers the first two days. The turf remained fast and relatively bias-free.

Saturday, Jan. 8: The main track was fast, turf firm, and once again it appeared the rail was back to being the deeper part of the going on the dirt. The only wire-to-wire winner over the main course was the favored Candyman E. in a 3-year-old maiden-special weight dash.

Sunday, Jan. 9: Fast and firm with no real bias over either surface, although speed does continue to perform well on the grass.

Wednesday, Jan. 12: A cold, blustery wind out of the north to open the week. The main track that did not play kindly to front-runners, and outside stalkers and closers dominated the proceedings throughout the card.

Thursday, Jan. 13: The wind again blew hard out of the north, and the headwind down the backstretch once again was the likely culprit for another track biased against speed, especially front-runners racing near the rail. The turf was firm and was also unkind to pace-setting types.

Friday, Jan. 14: A little moderation in the wind and, consequently, the bias against speed and rail runners over the main track.

Saturday, Jan. 15: The rail was again a little boggy over the fast main track, and speed horses and stalkers had a good day if they were kept off the inside.

Sunday, Jan. 16: The rail over the main course was especially dead. The only horse to lead at every call was the 1-5 Dubai's Connection in the opener, and even he was kept out in the three path and beyond the entire trip.

Monday, Jan. 17: It rained for the first time this meet, appearing just before the opener and turning the sealed track from fast to sloppy by the fourth race. Outside paths seemed best early, but speed dominated from the fifth race on.

Wednesday, Jan. 19: The turf course was closed because of early-morning rain, The main track was listed as muddy early on but appeared to be no worse than "good" with some moisture leaking through in spots. Bottom-level maiden claimers ran six furlongs in 1:11.10 in the opener. There was no real bias over the drying-out track, although horses on or near the lead did seem to hold the advantage.

Thursday, Jan. 20: Back on the grass with the turf listed as "good." Closers won both races over the inner course; one speed (at five furlongs) and one stalker won over the outer course. The main track was fast and played to speed not only in shorter sprints but out of the mile chute, as well.

Friday, Jan 21: Early-morning showers doomed turf racing for the day, and heavy rain before the second race kept the main track sloppy throughout the card. Speed fared well over the wet going, especially as the dismal day wore on.

Saturday, Jan. 22: More rain, and as a result turf racing was lost again, save for the feature. The main track was muddy and definitely favored horses racing from off the pace and away from the rail.

Sunday, Jan 23: The main track dried out nicely overnight and was fast for the first time in several days. The turf course was listed as "good" but probably could have been called "firm," with all four grass races decided over the outer course with the rail out 72 feet.

Wednesday, Jan. 26: Heavy rains overnight created a sloppy track to open the week, forcing turf racing to be canceled once again. Speed fared well early on over the main track, although stalkers won the last four races

Thursday, Jan. 27: Back on the grass, which was rated good. Management moved the day's lone five-furlong race from the inner to the outer course. The main track yielded a couple of front-running winners

Friday, Jan. 28: An unseasonably cool afternoon, with the main track fast and the turf listed as good. Speed and stalkers fared well over the main, and front-runners also accounted for both five-furlong sprints decided over the outer course.

Saturday, Jan. 29: The main track was fast and speed-conducive, the turf was firm, and the weather was perfect

Sunday, Jan. 30: Another gorgeous day, with the main track fast and turf firm and no apparent bias over either surface.

Wednesday, Feb. 2: Speed was boss over a fast main track as well as over the firm, outer turf course.

Thursday, Feb. 3: The speed bias on the main track was gone; the dirt course played evenly, with winners coming from up front, just off, and well behind the pace. The same was true on the turf.

Friday, Feb. 4: Another glorious day, with the track fast and turf firm again. Any thoughts of what seemed to be an early speed bias on the main were erased after Capt. Bullet Bob rallied from mid-pack and King Kitten from well off the pace to win races 6 and 8.

Saturday, Feb. 5: Fast and Firm for Donn Handicap day. A fairly strong headwind through the stretch may have been responsible for the front-runners' struggles over both surfaces.

Sunday, Feb. 6: More of the same, with beautiful weather, a strong headwind down the stretch, and trouble for front-runners on turf and dirt.

Not looking for that type of detail - a simple "good rail" "dead rail" "speed" or "anti-speed" label with the date and racetrack will do.

[pweizer]

Doug--Welsch is one of the best. But, how many people do you think could really recognize a track bias when they see one? I think the info would be very useful but am doubtful that many know how to watch races well enough to detect a real bias.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

Even if it is Doug posting his thoughts and anyone else wanting to chime in to generate a discussion that couldn't hurt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Doug--Welsch is one of the best. But, how many people do you think could really recognize a track bias when they see one? I think the info would be very useful but am doubtful that many know how to watch races well enough to detect a real bias.

Well - it can be a tricky subject.

I've had many disagreements about a bias a on specific day with guys I consider to be extremely competent and some very sharp at watching races. So, even among people with the skill to detect bias ... there's not always going to be a strong consensus.

There are obvious days ... like some on the dirt at old Keeneland ... where pretty much anyone here who isn't a certified tard or named PG 1985 could have detected a rail bias.

[MISTERGEE]

still a great idea, and at least the heads up is something anyone can double check for themselves

[VOL JACK]

Welsch always thinks there is a bias.
I don't see it.

He also thinks outside closers at GP are at an advantage.
All the races I watch there...if they out side the two path and more than two off the lead at the top of the stretch, they have no shot.

[Kasept]

Going to move this to the TRIP NOTES ROOM but will leave the re-direct up.

On the bias front, I started a thread about the AQU gold rail from Wednesday 2/9 (Link to charts)... Horses from those races should start coming back to run over the next 7-21 days. Andy and Eric covered these races in TRIPS & TRAPS. I'll put up a link to it.

T&T-2/17 (Part I)

[JJP]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Welsch always thinks there is a bias.
I don't see it.

He also thinks outside closers at GP are at an advantage.
All the races I watch there...if they out side the two path and more than two off the lead at the top of the stretch, they have no shot.

I agree. I think there's going to be some good betbacks from GP when they go to other tracks. A perfect example was Saturday, a horse named Simbamaya (sp?) who had the far outside post, sat not too far off the pace and made a big wide move on the turn and finally got the lead after the turn for home. But one of the horses he passed, and who saved more ground, came back toward his inside and put him away by open lengths. Seems like we see a lot of inside speeds get passed only to have them come back and prevail.

[hockey2315]

Simbamangu. . . He'll be 3-5 next out.