Summer Bird could be HOY

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

I wouldn't agree that the obvious hot pace in last year's Woodward really hurt Curlin's chances or led to him running a sub-par race. It only made him finish very slow .. though still faster than how all the others finished.

The 112 Beyer he got in that race was actually outright the 3rd best of his entire career.

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

In one extreme example, you're talking about a 3yo going 10fs in May while hung very wide on both turns chasing a scorching fast pace in a huge field very deep in talent.

In the Curlin Woodward example, you're talking about an older horse going 9fs chasing a very strong pace in a smaller field pretty much void of any other real Grade 1 talent.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

On the refusal to address issues, I wrote you a nice long reply yesterday you ignored, you out of smart replies? Other than 'you make no sense'. Just brillant!

I must have missed it.

I guess I'm not as brillant as you.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin's a naturally fast horse who won his debut wire-to-wire sprinting with a triple digit Beyer ... laying 5.5 lengths off of razor sharp alw horses rolling along up front should hinder them more so than him.

I don't think it's a case like a Point Given in the Ky Derby... because PG didn't have quite the raw speed of a Curlin.

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

OK, so how do you explain Zenyatta beating that slug last out by a nose if the slow pace didn't matter?

I'm sorry you don't understand how it can work both ways. It is pretty obvious when you make pace figures for a living. In the Past the Point race, Curlin ran about 10 Beyer points faster to the pace call than he did any other route race in his life to maintain his usual stalking position. Of course he wasn't going to have his usual finishing kick.

Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That Curlin was long gone by the Derby. If I recall correctly, you posted quite extensively on PA about how Asmussen had taken all the speed out of him with all those long, slow gallops.

He didn't exactly train him the way Baffert would - that much is for sure.

Christ, he was only a length in front of AP Arrow after a half mile in that race. The whole field was going too fast. It's not like a case in this year's Woodward where you had one rider smart enough to position his horse WAY behind everyone else.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin's North American wins.... and how his winning Beyer compares with other editions of the race this decade...


7f 3yo MSW at GP 102 Beyer (outright fastest 3yo MSW at GP going 7fs this decade)

Rebal Stakes at OP 99 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 highest Beyers this decade)

Arkansas Derby at OP 105 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Preakness Stakes - 111 Beyer (tied for 5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold - 114 Beyer (3 way tie for 4th fastest of 10 this decade)

Breeders Cup Classic - 119 Beyer (tied for 2nd fastest of 9 this decade)

Stephen Foster - 110 Beyer (tied for 6th fastest of 10 this decade)

Woodward - 112 Beyer (5th fastest of 10 this decade)

Jockey Club Gold Cup - 111 Beyer (tied for 8th fastest of 10 this decade)


The only two winning figures he's earned that aren't your middle of the road par type numbers for the class ... are his debut win and his blowout BC Classic win.

Not to take anything away from his dynamite race in the Classic .. but it did come over a very wet Monmouth race track that tends to produce exaggerated large margins of victory.

Ghostzapper ran a very conservative 128 Beyer on a wet Monmouth track - Rachel Alexandra's 116 over a wet Monmouth track is the fastest Haskell ever .. even including Holy Bull's and Skip Away's... and Phil seems to think her number could have been a lot faster. Curlin's 119 wasn't a conservative number imo.. but probably wasn't too high either.

Curlin was basically an excellent 3yo and a pretty good older horse who didn't develop and improve a whole lot from 3 to 4. He benifited from being the best 3yo of a solid enough but very overrated 3yo crop.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Zenyatta is an out the back of the pack dead closer. Curlin wasnt.

While I can understand that he didnt have his usual closing kick, he barely had enough to outfinish the horse who set that wicked pace.

All I am saying is that Curlin was not nearly as great as his overzealous owner and fans seem to think and that his less than fantastic final race lowered his stature enough that he has already seemingly been passed by RA.

Anyone that thinks his race on rubber proved anything about the kind of horse he was knows nothing about betting this sport. I don't really care what "fans" think, they don't bet anyway.

Barely outfinish? He won by a length and a quarter, not a desperate nose.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin's North American wins.... and how his winning Beyer compares with other editions of the race this decade...

I understand Jerry Brown is way over the top on how he thinks horses have gotten faster the last 10 years or whatever it is. But I think Beyer is going overboard the opposite way. What has happened to the average Beyer in top class races the last five years? I have to imagine it has shrunk.

It has a lot to do with the differences between claimers and stakes horses in my opinion. It has changed quite a bit with the proliferation of slots. Notice how the stakes Beyers have shrunk at the big tracks for stakes races, while at the slots tracks they always seem to come back too high for their big money races?

Think on that for a few days before posting these historical comparisons.

One side note, it makes what Rachel is doing more impressive in my mind.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.

i agree. fwiw.

[TropicalStorm]

Curlin would not have beaten Ravens Pass on the dirt or anything. Maybe earlier in his career but he was nothing special at the end of his 4yr old year. It was a long year that started in Dubai. Ravens Pass could run on anything. His pedigree was fine for dirt. He was a great horse.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Curlin would not have beaten Ravens Pass on the dirt or anything. Maybe earlier in his career but he was nothing special at the end of his 4yr old year. It was a long year that started in Dubai. Ravens Pass could run on anything. His pedigree was fine for dirt. He was a great horse.

How do you possibly know he could run on dirt?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

How do you possibly know he could run on dirt?

Oh gosh, he was by Elusive Quality, doesn't that mean he could run on dirt?

I've learned lately in this place to not step on the toes of the clairvoyant. They're out in abundance.

NT

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by CrossfireHurricane

Curlin would not have beaten Ravens Pass on the dirt or anything. Maybe earlier in his career but he was nothing special at the end of his 4yr old year. It was a long year that started in Dubai. Ravens Pass could run on anything. His pedigree was fine for dirt. He was a great horse.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Anyone that thinks his race on rubber proved anything about the kind of horse he was knows nothing about betting this sport. I don't really care what "fans" think, they don't bet anyway.

Barely outfinish? He won by a length and a quarter, not a desperate nose.

The Breeder's Cup just proved he was over the top since his Dubai race. He was extended to beat Past the Point and extended to beat Wanderin Boy. Thats the view from this betting "fan".

The horse threw a 22 second 4th quarter in the Breeder's Cup and hit the wall at the 1/8 pole. all earmarks of a horse that has seen his best days behind him.

He was a real good horse, not an all time great.

[Travis Stone]

Everyone wants to talk about his 4-year-old year, but how about Curlin's BC Classic performance and his gutsy win over Lawyer Ron at Belmont? Sure, Lawyer was not at his ideal track and was on the way down, but it was still a solid win over a good handicap horse. I thought his Classic win was most impressive visually... he strided-out powerfully against the very underrated Hard Spun. Add to it he wins the Preakness with little experience against Street Sense who was in career form with the better trip to boot.

Yeah, he wasn't Secretariat... but he was talented.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Oh gosh, he was by Elusive Quality, doesn't that mean he could run on dirt?

I've learned lately in this place to not step on the toes of the clairvoyant. They're out in abundance.

NT

I'm impressed. That's quite literate of you!

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Oh gosh, he was by Elusive Quality, doesn't that mean he could run on dirt?

I've learned lately in this place to not step on the toes of the clairvoyant. They're out in abundance.

NT

In a way handicapping is alot like being a clairvoyant. You just have a Potpourri of them here.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Curlin, overrated and all, very likely would have killed those two Euro's and Tiago on dirt.

Not beaten them .... killed them.

The Euros wouldnt have raced if on dirt and Tiago was nothing special period. The only reason the Euros came over is the race was on synthetics. IMO

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Maybe the problem, then, PHil, is what I've been alluding to all along: that the METHODOLOGY is flawed. Since these aren't time trials, with horses running individually or restricted to lanes, maybe the 'fastest' notion in terms of a number is not the way to go. If so many SLOW horses are winning on synthetics, then, I know that if I were a trainer or owner, I'd get my stock over there and win a whole bunch of races with my fast dirt horses. That this isn't happening sort of works against the methodology, don't you think?

I mean, arguing that these horses are SLOW is like the learned Jesuits of Galileo's era arguing for an Aristotelian view of the world because the CHURCH told them to save that view at all cost. What exactly is the excuse for all the BEYERITES here continuing to argue that these horses are SLOW? Time for a paradigm shift when your theory leads to ridiculous results.

Beyer's methodology is flawed in that the projection method has allowed the person in charge of assigning the number at each specific track too much leverage in massaging the numbers to make them "fit" what they think should have happened. If a number comes up "too fast" or "too slow" they allow themselves the liberty of splitting the variant multiple times to move the number. That being said, even if the numbers were accurate, it's up to the handicapper to determine how the prior trip affected the number and what today's trip will project. Betting speed figures, even good ones, blind is a road to the poor house- we agree on that. However, what they are supposed to do is separate the contenders from the pretenders. If a trip horse stepping up in class has never run a race within 5 lengths of a winning one for said new level, is he worth a bet at 3-1? 5-1? 10-1? 20-1? None whatsoever?

The problem I have with polytrack is with horses like Fatal Bullet- a horse I happen to like quite a bit having met the owner & trainer and the horse. He is a remarkably good horse on synthetics, obviously, with a record of 8 wins and 2 seconds in 10 starts including a great 2nd in last year's BC Sprint behind an absolute beast. The problem is, he can't even stand up on real dirt. His last two starts on dirt he's gone off at 5-1 and 6-1 and has been beaten a combined 34 lengths even though his early speed should work well on supposedly speed biased real dirt. How is this stuff supposed to be a replacement for dirt when the best horses in the world on poly can't run on real dirt? Conversely, Fabulous Strike, unquestionably one of the world's best sprinters- and beat Fatal Bullet like a drum at Saratoga on real dirt- clearly has problems on synthetic. There are very few Einsteins that perform admirably on both surfaces and a lot more Fatal Bullets and Fabulous Strikes.