11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

I do like Blind Luck. I projected her to be the best 3yo filly going into this year from last. I just don't think this crop of 3yo fillies is very good.

Besides Champagne, the sprint field is a lot tougher, and for lack of a better word, saltier.

She never has shown a propensity for sprinting, and cutting her back after a year of running long, seems, well, a bit far fetched to me.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

There's one Euro that no one has mentioned that I am really looking fwd to betting. On another note, I wonder if Stoute will truly scratch Workforce if the course remains too hard this week.

Don't forget, that a hard turf course here, in Europe, it means it's got six inches of water floating on top of the grass.

[RockHardTen1985]

Im falling truly madly deeply in love with Unrivaled Belle. In her last 4 starts she has.... Defeated every ones WORLD BEATER ON THE SQUARE... Then 3 times in a row, was put on the total chase in 5,5 and 6 horse fields. She was forced to chase/press early, and one could argue all 3 of the track she caught on those days were playing 2 speed. She did all the dirty work in those races and a lot of her kick was sucked out of her. She draws perfect, absolutely perfect in this race. I pray Kent does not ingage Malibu Prayer... Let Life At Ten, Havre De Grace or Acting Happy engage that one early. Maybe this is the same situation, just a bigger field, but I just hope Kent has learned and stalks, instead of pressing. The fact is, she will likely be 10x the price that she was in her last race. How can she be bet? She has lost on the square to the Pletcher filly's who both show up in this spot..... Maybe Joey S is wrong again, but the bottom line is at 10x the price of her last race, and maybe 10x the price of the chalk who needs to come from the clouds Im giving UB a giant shot to get first jump and win this race.

[hockey2315]

What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

Shes just chasing and pressing these short fields... Grant it, it could happen again, but is L@T gonna let MP go? Why does he even enter both?
I just think based on price, shes worth a play... She draws perfect.

[hockey2315]

She had an easy trip last time and came up empty. She's been dull.

[Dahoss]

Why does he enter both? Why not? Don't you think they learned their lesson with Life At Ten in the Personal Ensign, thus the rating in the Beldame?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Why does he enter both? Why not? Don't you think they learned their lesson with Life At Ten in the Personal Ensign, thus the rating in the Beldame?

L@T not more accomplished? Is she not the one that they want to win this with? PE was a one time situation, you know better. 10f and an insane ride. She flew early at Belmont when she popped UB.
My 2 things with UB are, a much better price. Not a little better, we are talking like 10x better. And hopefully a better trip in a bigger field, where shes not forced to press.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Shes just chasing and pressing these short fields... Grant it, it could happen again, but is L@T gonna let MP go? Why does he even enter both?
I just think based on price, shes worth a play... She draws perfect.

Different owners dude. And obviously, like Hoss said, they're not sending Life At Ten again. . .

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

L@T not more accomplished? Is she not the one that they want to win this with? PE was a one time situation, you know better. 10f and an insane ride. She flew early at Belmont when she popped UB.
My 2 things with UB are, a much better price. Not a little better, we are talking like 10x better. And hopefully a better trip in a bigger field, where shes not forced to press.

This is very sound thinking. Bet on a horse that only can with an absolutely perfect trip. Not only does there need to be a strong front duel but none of the closers can fire.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

L@T not more accomplished? Is she not the one that they want to win this with? PE was a one time situation, you know better. 10f and an insane ride. She flew early at Belmont when she popped UB.
My 2 things with UB are, a much better price. Not a little better, we are talking like 10x better. And hopefully a better trip in a bigger field, where shes not forced to press.

Your theory is they only want to win the race with Life At Ten? I would hope you know better than that. How many horses does Pletcher have with Evans? You don't think he'd like to win a Breeders Cup race for him?

Don't you think they learned from the PE? Why rate last time if they weren't trying to do something different? If you think the plan is to have them dueling with each other...I don't know what to say. That's insane.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Different owners dude. And obviously, like Hoss said, they're not sending Life At Ten again. . .

I know who the owners are.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I know who the owners are.

How many times has Pletcher run two horses in a race?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Your theory is they only want to win the race with Life At Ten? I would hope you know better than that. How many horses does Pletcher have with Evans? You don't think he'd like to win a Breeders Cup race for him?

Don't you think they learned from the PE? Why rate last time if they weren't trying to do something different? If you think the plan is to have them dueling with each other...I don't know what to say. That's insane.

Fine I dont like her, Ill take BL at 8-5 in a decent at best paced race.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is very sound thinking. Bet on a horse that only can with an absolutely perfect trip. Not only does there need to be a strong front duel but none of the closers can fire.

Who do you like?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Fine I dont like her, Ill take BL at 8-5 in a decent at best paced race.

Haha...dude, like who you want. I just don't understand your thinking in regards to the Pletcher horses and instead of providing a cogent arguement, it's like you're throwing crap at the wall.

I like Malibu prayer a bit and most think she has no shot. Who cares? Stop taking EVERYTHING personally.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Haha...dude, like who you want. I just don't understand your thinking in regards to the Pletcher horses and instead of providing a cogent arguement, it's like you're throwing crap at the wall.

I like Malibu prayer a bit and most think she has no shot. Who cares? Stop taking EVERYTHING personally.

Im tossing Blind Luck.
Im using MP also.
Might stand w/ MP and UB.

[hockey2315]

I'd hate to be alive in any kind of meaningful Pk4 and not have the two three-year-olds.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'd hate to be alive in any kind of meaningful Pk4 and not have the two three-year-olds.

I don't see how you could not have at least one if not both covered in any multi race exotic. Especially because the F&M Turf doesn't seem like a race you need to spread too much.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I don't see how you could not have at least one if not both covered in any multi race exotic. Especially because the F&M Turf doesn't seem like a race you need to spread too much.

All my Pk4s will finish Red Desire, Plumania w/ Blind Luck, Havre de Grace.

I'll probably regret chucking Midday, but love Red Desire to the point where I'm basically singling her and only using Plumania because she's a high price.