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  #1  
Old 04-09-2018, 12:24 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Arrow 5/5 (CD): 144th Kentucky Derby Day





5/5/18 ~ Kentucky Derby (1 1/4M) Churchill Downs

1. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez (50-1)
2. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado (30-1)
3. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanarie (30-1)
4. Flameaway-$ 70 (John Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano (30-1)
5. Audible 110 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano (8-1)
6. Good Magic 134 (e Five, Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz (12-1)
7. Justify 100 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith (3-1)
8. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham (50-1)
9. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
10. My Boy Jack 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife, Monomoy) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux (30-1)
11. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza (8-1)
12. Enticed 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado (30-1)
13. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras (50-1)
14. Mendelssohn 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore (5-1)
15. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke (50-1)
16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)
17. Solomini 54 (Zayat Stables, Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat (30-1)
18. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole, St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez (12-1)
19. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar, Repole) Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux (12-1)
20. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana (30-1)
AE-21. Blended Citizen-$ 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey (50-1)
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Last edited by Kasept : 05-01-2018 at 03:38 PM.
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  #2  
Old 04-09-2018, 12:55 PM
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Gotta think JJC had first choice there.

Who jumps on BDO?
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  #3  
Old 04-09-2018, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Gotta think JJC had first choice there.

Who jumps on BDO?
Not so sure of that.
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Old 04-09-2018, 02:44 PM
cal828 cal828 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Gotta think JJC had first choice there.

Who jumps on BDO?
Espinoza, Van Dyke, Bejarano? Do any of these already have a KD mount? Thought about Gary Stevens too, but he have may have already committed to Lukas?

Last edited by cal828 : 04-09-2018 at 02:55 PM.
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  #5  
Old 04-09-2018, 03:25 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post
Gotta think JJC had first choice there.

Who jumps on BDO?
Javier almost surely stuck with the trainer he needs to ride for over the long haul. It is highly unlikely he believes Audible is more likely to win the Derby than Bolt D'Oro.
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Old 04-09-2018, 03:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Javier almost surely stuck with the trainer he needs to ride for over the long haul. It is highly unlikely he believes Audible is more likely to win the Derby than Bolt D'Oro.
I agree. I was surprised that the bettors in Pool 4 considered Audible a more likely winner than Bolt D'Oro.
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  #7  
Old 04-09-2018, 03:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cakes44 View Post

Who jumps on BDO?
Thinking perhaps Victor.......
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Old 04-09-2018, 03:55 PM
Holybull1 Holybull1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Javier almost surely stuck with the trainer he needs to ride for over the long haul. It is highly unlikely he believes Audible is more likely to win the Derby than Bolt D'Oro.

Then why take the Bolt mount in the first place? It seems unlikely Ruis would have given the mount to JJC without an understanding that the Derby was a part of the deal.
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Old 04-09-2018, 06:59 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Then why take the Bolt mount in the first place? It seems unlikely Ruis would have given the mount to JJC without an understanding that the Derby was a part of the deal.
Well, apparently he didn't.

It's a reasonable question but it's also not unreasonable to suggest that two months ago that Todd wouldn't have needed Javier.
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Old 04-10-2018, 09:41 AM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
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If i had to choose, it would be Vino of the Pletcher horses. Seems to be putting it together, and an argument can be made he just disliked Tampa. Seemed to be spinning his wheels late in races after being perfectly placed.
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  #11  
Old 04-10-2018, 10:14 AM
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If i had to choose, it would be Vino of the Pletcher horses. Seems to be putting it together, and an argument can be made he just disliked Tampa. Seemed to be spinning his wheels late in races after being perfectly placed.
I'm interested to see Magnum Moon run this weekend again. Ran big in the rebel and if he improves will be very dangerous in the derby. In my opinion Todd's best horse.
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Old 04-10-2018, 10:29 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
If i had to choose, it would be Vino of the Pletcher horses. Seems to be putting it together, and an argument can be made he just disliked Tampa. Seemed to be spinning his wheels late in races after being perfectly placed.
The problem with that argument is his race in the Sam Davis. He can't like it one day and then not on another.
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Old 04-10-2018, 11:04 AM
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Javier realizes that Bolt Was no match for Justify and as least has a chance with Audible who has been brilliant so far. As cool as some of the contenders are, they are all running for second money as it is clear that Justify is the goods.
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Old 04-10-2018, 11:42 AM
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what are the chances that TP's horses don't hit the board, ala Zito's fivesome years ago ? Just sayin' --
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  #15  
Old 04-10-2018, 07:32 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes View Post
Javier realizes that Bolt Was no match for Justify and as least has a chance with Audible who has been brilliant so far. As cool as some of the contenders are, they are all running for second money as it is clear that Justify is the goods.
I have Justify at 30/1 I just vomited in my mouth and ripped my ticket up. Come on Kryptonite...DOOMED
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  #16  
Old 04-10-2018, 08:50 PM
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Quote:
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I have Justify at 30/1 I just vomited in my mouth and ripped my ticket up. Come on Kryptonite...DOOMED
If you're saying that to make me feel good, it worked.
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  #17  
Old 04-17-2018, 11:52 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Jon White's Early Kentucky Derby Odds

3-1 Justify
6-1 Magnum Moon
6-1 Mendelssohn
8-1 Audible
8-1 Bolt d'Oro
8-1 Good Magic
15-1 Vino Rosso
20-1 Enticed
20-1 Flameaway
20-1 Noble Indy
20-1 My Boy Jack
20-1 Quip
30-1 Free Drop Billy
30-1 Gronkowski
30-1 Hofburg
30-1 Solomini
50-1 Bravazo
50-1 Firenze Fire
50-1 Lone Sailor
50-1 Promises Fulfilled
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #18  
Old 04-23-2018, 07:56 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #19  
Old 04-23-2018, 12:04 PM
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Quip will bypass Derby, try Preakness.. Combatant moves into field.. Instilled Regard now on deck..
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #20  
Old 04-23-2018, 02:52 PM
-BT- -BT- is offline
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Quote:
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Quip will bypass Derby
Madonamia, it's almost like these horses know i have a futures wager on them.


-bt-
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