Two at Toga (2022)

[theguarantee]

I hear you - I love horses like Ruse though that get forced wide on the turf chasing pace and then make that move still turning for home then get caught. Now moves inside and I think is a very likely winner today, though I hear your concerns. Good luck with Cotton if you play…I liked her two back and I don’t know if it’s just in my head but kind of felt like that was the time and now I’ve moved on.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

I hear you - I love horses like Ruse though that get forced wide on the turf chasing pace and then make that move still turning for home then get caught. Now moves inside and I think is a very likely winner today, though I hear your concerns. Good luck with Cotton if you play…I liked her two back and I don’t know if it’s just in my head but kind of felt like that was the time and now I’ve moved on.

I am playing a trifecta in that race, I’ll post it to a thread.

I think we are all taking a shot in race 10. Just seems like a good race to take a stab. No horse stands out imo.

[moses]

Well I was wrong. Heartbreaker for Ruse right there.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Be the Boss was overbet and ran poorly. Running Bee was never really in doubt, though only went off at 2/1 returning $10.40 total.

Total wagered: $160.00
Total returned: $125.90

Thursday, August 11.

Best bet: Race 9 - #10 Derrynane 5/1 ML, Clement/Rosario. I suspect that Poppyflower and Empress Tigress will be the two horses people look at from the Coronation Cup and both those horses ran well and deserve that interest. But I thought Derrynane just had a really awkward trip. There were multiple spots where she came close to steadying, just didn't seem comfortable for most of the race, then lacked room at the top of the stretch and had to awkwardly move out to get running room. I think breaking from the outside, she'll hopefully not have to deal with any of that. The chart says she made up almost 53 lengths in the stretch and while we know that's wrong, she did put in a strong effort once she got into the clear. Looking for her to run big here at a square price.

Best value: Race 10 - #10 Bavarian Creme 8/1 ML, Hennig/Prat. I don't know if this horse is going to go off at 8/1 a few of the horses from that MSW turf race on May 30th have come back to win, including Dream Central who has won two stakes races since then. Plus, Prat is aboard. This one did seem to have another gear that it kicked into in the stretch and I liked the professionalism she showed when asked for more. Not seeing any horse that really stands out in this group, I think she's worth a stab at 8/1.

Well, I've lost my last dollar betting on Derrynane and Bavarian Creme was just not very good after being bet down.

Total wagered: $168.00
Total returned: $125.90

Best bet: Race 3 - #1 Saint Selby 4/1 ML, Atras/Carmouche. Conventional wisdom here is that there is a lot of speed which should set up for a stalker or closer but I'm going to buck that here and hope for a nice price on what I think is a pretty nice horse. Carmouche is going to have to get this horse forward from the start but that's basically what he does best. Note, closers are not running particularly well at 6 furlongs at Saratoga so while My Boy Tate may seem appealing, I'm not sure I want to bet money on him. Ny Traffic could be tough but I don't want any part of him at what will likely be very short odds. Looking for a wire to wire winner here.

Best value: Race 10 - #4 Sinfully Sweet 10/1 ML, Casse/McCarthy. I don't see a ton of pace in here so while Sinfully Sweet has generally run in turf sprints, I think this could turn into a turf sprint when they hit the stretch. If that's the case, I want her as I believe she is the most talented turf horse in this field and I'm willing to overlook my lukewarm feelings about Casse/McCarthy to take a shot on a talented horse that should be a nice price.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet - Race 5 #6 Eagle in Love.
Feels like the Atras barn is starting to wake up and the last at this distance was too bad to be true. Obviously had the issues at the break and the fact that they are wheeling back at the same distance tells me that’s a line through race.

Best Value - Race 7 #8 Storm Kiss
Not surprised Corrales was switched to Johnny V but happily surprised they did it early enough for bettors to take note. Will say Corrales being named is what first drew my eyes here even though I probably should’ve realized it was typical Ward…that said after rewatching the replays and checking the pedigree I kept coming back to this one. I’m a little concerned about the distance but I think the turf is going to be much better off that dirt effort which looked to me like she didn’t really handle it but her speed carried her a bit. I also thought she broke a little sharper in there and if she can do that again today whereas she was a touch tardy in her synth starts before rushing up showing bigtime speed…she could prove tough to catch in here.

[moses]

The weekends have been tough for me to find time so here are two longshots that I like tomorrow:

Best bet: Race 8 - #3 Overbore 15/1 ML, Ward/Prat. In his only start on turf, Overbore was just edged by Artos - who has gone on to place in multiple stakes turf sprints since then. The 3rd place finisher Seize the Treasure returned to win a turf sprint. But Overbore took a different route and broke his maiden in the Tremont back in June of last year. He's only raced on dirt since then with mild success...but he's been training very, very well on turf in the last month and you've got to wonder if turf is really his preferred surface. Out of Speightstown, I don't expect too much stamina from him but note his dam did win or place in multiples stakes races on synthetic at 8.5 furlongs.

Best value: Race 10 - #5 Get Smokin 8/1 ML, Casse/Castellano. I think this horse is dangerous if left alone on the lead and while the horse in here have good tactical speed, I'm not sure any of them really want the front. I could be wrong but he'll get overlooked at the tote board and I'll take a stab on him.

[theguarantee]

Absolutely brutal between Ruse and Succulent on Thursday. Both beats cost me about a grand each. Yesterday's picks were as bad as bad gets. Finally got around to updating my totals, will be back with picks later...should have more time the remainder of the meet so I'll try to keep the totals rolling up to date daily...

Total Wagered: $172
Total Returned: $155.70

[theguarantee]

Saturday, 8/13
Best Bet - Race 5 #1 Tosconova Beauty 7/2
I am usually very against playing horses shipping in from Finger Lakes, they've popped a few times the last couple years but historically I think it's just such a bad level/speed favoring track that it doesn't translate. That said I think this one actually has the right style and simply seems faster than the rest of these. I like the rail draw in that it simplifies things for Alvarado, just needs to break on out of there any try to take them all the way.

Best Value - Race 11 #8 Strike Price 8/1
Seems like you could throw a blanket over this field so in a race pretty devoid of speed at least Strike Price has some tactical ability. Not sure why the barn change but does come in off a series of drills for Morey who has struggled here but is still very dangerous. Would like to see Trevor get aggressive, go to the front and see if he can hold off several plodders who take a long time to wind up and could be given the slip in my opinion.

[moses]

I may just give up on this. My picks have been awful.

Best bet: Race 1 - #10 Three Zero 8/1 ML

Best value: Race 5 - #3 She’s Stormy 10/1 ML

[theguarantee]

Tosconova Beauty ran OK but ultimately just wasn't good enough. Strike Price got a totally different trip than I envisioned but was brutal anyway so not sure it mattered.

Total Wagered: $180
Total Returned: $155.70

Best Bet - Race 3: #3 Shadolamo 6/1
I think is intriguing in here today getting back to what she does best in my opinion and the form is a bit muddied up.

Best Value - Race 5 #4 Glitter Up 8/1
Not exactly sure why four of her five starts have come on the dirt, especially given the strong performance in the lone turf try but hoping that leads to a little better value today. Not entirely sure what kind of trip she needs in here but trust Dylan to typically get the most out of his horses.

[theguarantee]

Total Wagered: $188
Total Returned: $160.80

Best Bet - Race 6 #3 Seal Beach 5/1
Not usually my favorite type with lots of big names in the running lines now trying something new. Maker had a more ambitious placement originally but I think re-routing here was a much better decision. Some turf ped from the dam and feels like this isn't one where they are out of options on the dirt and just trying something...given the Churchill situation and all today feels like the right spot to take a try on the green.

Best Value - Race 10 #4 Dixie Cannon 8/1
Bit of a total stab with Brittany Russell off the layoff. Cafe Fleur can win but feels like one you want to take on. The other logicals like the 5,7 and 9 aren't exactly win machines. Kind of debated taking a shot with the 4 or 10 and just thought the 4 would offer a better price today.

Good luck.

[theguarantee]

Total Wagered: $196
Total Returned: $160.80

Seal Beach did zero running while Dixie Cannon got loose on the lead setting easy fractions and was no match late. Onto Thursday, 8/18

Best Bet - Race 8 #5 Warrior Johny 9/2
Probably wasn't beating much in the maiden breaker two back but it was quite the performance. I always look for improvement second time this route of ground so think with a better trip in here today can win and might be a decent price with some higher profile connections likely to take money in here.

Best Value - Race 7 #1 Steelersfanforlife 12/1
Just 2 for 30 lifetime - isn't exactly a ton of horse...that said I don't necessarily trust any of the logicals in here and has been at least back to putting in his run since the freshening. Second chance going this short and like the rail draw given his lack of any speed at all, Luzzi should save all the ground and try to make one run. Should be a nice price in with a bit of a shot today.

[moses]

I haven’t had time to post these past couple days. I’m just gonna call it quits for the meet. Oddly, I’m up significantly (relative to me) for the meet so far but have just been awful with the best bet/best value plays.

[theguarantee]

Total Wagered: $204.00
Total Returned: $172.20

Steelersfanforlife was a bad pick, was stretching to find a price I guess. Warrior Johnny buried that field but wasn't near the 9/2 morning line hoped for.

Friday, August 19th

Best Bet - Race 10 #4 No Nay Hudson 4/1
Oxymore may prove tough in here and Appraise looks like no slouch, I just have to bet No Nay off that August 7th turf work. Thought he looked awesome fending off the charge of Asymmetric. I'm not exactly sure why Wesley seemed intent in keeping this one on the dirt given the breeding. The mare improved immediately when moved to the turf and hoping (will need) a similar improvement today. Obviously this one tipped his hand of talent at Keeneland, kind of odd that they didn't send to Ascot, I have no idea why not or if there is a story there...at any rate, if this one is as good of a turf sprinter as I expect today is the day to get some decent value.

Best Value - Race 5 #1 Nicholas James 9/2
Not going to get as cute as yesterday with a longshot since I just didn't come up with any on this card I truly believe in. This one has been oddly spotted in my opinion. The 6.5F dirt sprint back in June matches up pretty well with the rest of these however. Not sure why he didn't show more speed last out but breaking from the rail and getting an extra furlong I would expect Jose to put this one on the lead and hope he forgets to stop today.

[theguarantee]

No Nay Hudson looked a winner turning for home but was turned away. Nicholas James was awful.

Best Bet - Race 8 #3 Emminent Victor
Loved the turn of foot/aggressive move in the last and think this one is full of upside. Think Prat will get the jump on the Euro and hopefully can sprint to the wire first.

Best Value - Race 9 #8 Lady Edith
Was flying home in that ridiculously run race last time and I think Miss J MacKay will take all the action given the more obvious trip and Irad…think they both ran equally as well and both have big shots today but one will be a much bigger price. Really fun race

[theguarantee]

Was traveling Sunday and thought I'd have a chance to post but got tied up...don't have much time for thoughts today either..

Wednesday, 8/24:

Best Bet - Race 7 #5 Proven Hope 5/1
Best Value - Race 10 #9 Solib

[theguarantee]

Thursday, 8/25

Best Bet - Race 9 #3 Skims 9/2
I really like her in here today. While there are some progressive types in here that may be ready to go onto bigger and better things, she's just simply been facing much tougher in her last few. Her late kick was a little disappointing last out but I think Rosario kind of let up knowing the race was over. It wasn't the worst trip ever but I think subtly things just did not work out never really saving any ground, being forced wide and a couple nice ones getting the jump on her. Love that she's drawn further inside today and thin she's going to be really tough to beat in here.

Best Value - Race 6 #3 Queen Bourbon 6/1
I've always had a bit of a thing for this one, probably overrating her but I like these longer distances and have to give her a shot today off that last race. I've mentioned it before but I always like these types that chase wide on the turf, make a nice run off the turn and don't quite give up but get caught from the closers. Jose managed to take her from a slow break at the rail to lose ground on all 3 turns, made the premature early move that never works in turf races and all things considered she hung in there pretty well.

[theguarantee]

Friday, 8/26
Not that interested in today's card once it went off the turf.

Best Bet - Race 8 #1 Ice Princess 8/1
Will obviously be much shorter now, seems like the only one I can really make to beat Make Mischief with.

Best Value - Race 9 #10 Quickflash 15/1
Key Point might be a cinch but think Quickflash can outrun odds and maybe hit the board. Not much of a winning type but stranger things have happened.

[theguarantee]

Travers Day Saturday, 8/27

Best Bet - Race 9 #2 Search Results 7/2
Just think this race should set up for her and have always loved this one...Can't see how they go nearly as fast today and I think the way Search Results blew past Letruska was emblematic of her consistent turn of foot for a dirt horse. Not fully confident she will time it perfectly enough to hold off Clairere late but at the expected odds will take a shot.

Best Value - Race 11 #4 Gilded Age 30/1
Probably an insane play and there are some others today I'm intrigued by that I'll list below just for the sake of it. Gilded Age is bred for this through the gills. While Angela Renee was ultimately disappointing and maybe you could make a case he's following suit the breeding is fantastic and the fact is he keeps getting a little better each start. While I do think the winner is most likely Epicenter or Cyberknife I think he can run second or third and will be bomber odds. If they don't show up who knows...he's also been campaigned like he's better than he looks on paper. This is a total stab I admit but seems like an OK enough spot/day to do so.

[theguarantee]

Couple others today:

Race 6 #4 Jet Speed 8/1
Michelle Hemingway has been live in NY this year and certainly has the background to be up and coming, last trip was insane.

Race 8 #1 Conagher 7/2
Between the lasix and the fact that we won't get quite enough price I thought about making him my best bet of the day but couldn't quite get there. He's a serious horse that can really run...totally random comp but kind of reminds me of Flashing in the Test when Cat's Move took all the money, no real knock but this horse is a confirmed runner.

Race 10 #6 Gufo 9/2
I originally kind of thought Broome just towered over this field but I've had a nagging feeling all week that this isn't necessarily ideal for a horse that runs like Broome three turns on the inner...but I couldn't really get behind anyone else and the class just appears pretty daunting...but now I've talked myself back into Gufo, maybe stupidly...that said might be a better price today than usual, I trust Joel in a three turn 1.5 inner turf race than most, and he's probably best at this distance. Just feels like Broome and him are supposed to be the two finishing best in here and I'll take the value on Gufo today, especially since I think there are a couple question marks about whether or not Broome will bring his top form (in which case he likely wins).

Good luck to everyone today.