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#1
07-13-2022, 12:25 PM
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Two at Toga (2022)
Tomorrow is Saratoga opening day. I’ll be posting my top picks each day with a mythical $2WP bet on each. Let’s see if I can end up with a positive return this year.
There are a few interesting horses on the card for me but one horse I was very impressed with makes it as my best bet. Best bet: Race 8 - #1 Canisy 4/1 ML, Clement/Castellano. Lost as the favorite last time out but once she got running room, she showed that she can really move. This race has a lot of interesting horses so I wouldn’t want to take less than 4/1 on her…but I plan on building a couple tickets around her as I think she is the one to beat. Best value: Race 7 - #4 Angitude 8/1 ML, Cox/Rosario. I guess we will see what price she goes off at but 8/1 would be pretty nice for a horse that I think may set a moderate pace or work out a perfect trip by sitting right off of it. I’m not sure if she wants to go a mile but if she does, she’s a major player here. 
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#3
07-13-2022, 12:31 PM
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#4
07-13-2022, 12:34 PM
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Overcame a wide trip and came home fast to win her debut. Waited for room last time, switched out and finished very well, only to get swooped by a runner who was left at the gate and came rolling. To be fair though, she was 2nd best. I'm still in her corner...hoping she gets a better trip from the inside tomorrow. Good Luck
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#5
07-13-2022, 12:45 PM
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#6
07-13-2022, 01:16 PM
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#7
07-13-2022, 02:09 PM
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#9
07-13-2022, 07:08 PM
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Glad to see you posting Moses. I think Dahoss deserves his own thread (if he chooses) but hope you’ll let me tag on here to avoid too much clutter in the forum.
I think last year I posted about 116 worth of wagers that returned around 132 but I missed a bunch of days. My goal this year is to post everyday and post a profit. Pretty sure I already know my plays for tomorrow but have a few more replays to watch and will be back in the morning. I will say I do think Canisy is interesting...won’t be my pick but I totally get it. That said I think the 12 Linda’s Gift is a little interesting at a much bigger price...and wondering if the 13 draws in and presumably Prat jumps on there maybe Lezcano climbs back aboard and drifts up from the 10/1 ML? I get that Canisy found trouble and ran right past her in the last but Linda was rank early and Jose totally strangled. Slow pace, still ran faster than the 1 who I think gets bet off that trip....
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#10
07-14-2022, 10:26 AM
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Best Bet - Race 7) 7 Tarabi - Tepid morning line favorite but I really liked her comeback race despite disappointing as the favorite. Looked like she would need one and couldn’t run down the sharp front runner...like the small stretch out and think she’s primed for a peak effort today.
Best Value - Race 8) 12 Linda’s Gift - Originally was going to go with Snow’s Island but I see dahoss already pointed that one out and as I noted I just feel like with Prat jumping off to the Chad runner that this one is going to get lost in the wagering. I think that last effort was sneaky good as nothing really went right and while I do like Canisy and will probably have some exactas using both, Linda’s Gift seems likely to be a much better price today. Good luck to everyone, always awesome when Saratoga is back.
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#11
07-14-2022, 10:29 AM
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Going to post my early picks for Friday and Saturday today. I'll have to check back on scratches. It looks like my picks for opening day are set to go. Here are the picks for Friday.
Friday, July 15 Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie. Coming from the Finger Lakes, I fully expect this horse to get overlooked but he's run fairly well in his most recent two starts and I think may have a pace/style advantage in a race that doesn't seem to have much early speed. I respect a horse like American Pure who has some competitive figures heading into the race, good workouts, and is likely an improving 3 year old...not to mention the connections and what seems like quite a bit of class relief here from at least his last start. But, I don't think he or any of the other likely favorites tower over anyone and this seems like a race where it wouldn't be shocking to see a longshot steal it. Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche. I've lost a lot of money banking on turf races to have an honest pace only for the horses to jog around the track. But...I think there is enough pace presence here not to worry about that. There should be some decently fast fractions set early. That sets up one of the favorites Set Piece...but also sets up a horse like Sanctuary City, who has shown a nice closing kick at times, though not necessarily consistently. I don't love Carmouche aboard or totally trust him to work out a great trip...but the horse is 20/1 on the morning line, definitely has some talent, and I think will get the pace setup. I'm against Mira Mission here and will probably combo Sanctuary City with some horses like Set Piece, Atone, Public Sector, and Wolfie's Dynaghost. I haven't figured that out yet.
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#12
07-14-2022, 10:36 AM
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On Linda's Gift, note that Prat is off and Franco is on now. Aside from that, I almost ended up on her when first looking at the card. She passed Canisy in the stretch but once Canisy got into open space, she blew by Linda's Gift like she was standing still. I couldn't get past that...although I think she's got a shot and definitely do like the price she'll be at, I just couldn't end up on her.
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#13
07-14-2022, 04:16 PM
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Nice call on best bet 
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#14
07-14-2022, 04:17 PM
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#15
07-14-2022, 04:29 PM
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Smart ride by Javi to jump that field early, esp after the #4 scratched. Nice pick.
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#16
07-14-2022, 06:49 PM
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#17
07-14-2022, 06:52 PM
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#18
07-15-2022, 08:17 AM
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#19
07-15-2022, 08:55 AM
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After Day 1 Record: 2 1-0-1 Total wagered: $8.00 Total returned: $14.30 Last edited by moses : 07-15-2022 at 03:38 PM.
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#20
07-15-2022, 11:27 AM
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Reiterating my picks for today and posting Saturday's picks:
Friday, July 15 Best Bet: Race 7 - #6 I Am the Cash Man 8/1 ML, Progno/Worrie. Best Value: Race 9 - #12 Sanctuary City 20/1 ML, Ferraro/Carmouche. (Commentary above) Saturday, July 16 Best Bet: Race 9 - #4 Analogy 10/1 ML, Pletcher/Carmouche. I'm not sure exactly what this horse's preferred running style is as he won on the lead two back but looked pretty good coming from off the pace in his last race. The versatility is a plus. Note that the runner up two back broke his maiden next time out (including over yesterday's winner Snow's Island) and followed that up with an allowance win over Easter (who Motion thought highly enough of to run in the Man O War.) I don't see much difference between this horse and a horse like Credit Event - although Credit Event will be a shorter price. ML favorite Fort Ticonderoga may be tough as the runner up from last time out, Growth Capital, seems to be a pretty good horse. But I think is worth taking a shot against. Best Value: Race 3 - #11 Jocosity 10/1 ML, Mott/I.Ortiz. I know that conventional wisdom is to bet against Mott first time starters but I'm playing this horse off of a gut instinct that Mott has brought a talented group of horses to Saratoga and is looking to make some noise. Chad Brown's Robyn and Eli may be the horse to beat here and far be it for me to question Chad Brown's strategy, but I'm not crazy about her being moved from sprint to route to sprint...now back to a route. Last out, she lost to a 40/1 horse that had only finished in the money one other time in her career. So I'm not really crazy about betting her. Seeing Mott and Irad team up here, I'm banking on this horse having some talent.
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