Early Weekend Beyers

[Kasept]

G1 Las Virgenes Stardom Bound 84
G3* Thunder Road H. Matto Mondo 102
G2 R.B. Lewis Pioneerof the Nile 94
G2 Strub S. Cowboy Cal 96

G3 Mineshaft Honest Man 105
G3 Silverbulletday War Echo 95
G3 Risen Star Friesan Fire 96
G3 Fair Grounds H. Diamond Tycoon 96

GP Tallahasee75k Vanquisher 100
FG ColPower75k Chamberlain Bridge 99
OP EssexH100k Prom Shoes 98
AQU Whirlaway100k Haynesfield 90

Originally Posted by Kasept

G1 Las Virgenes Stardom Bound 84
G3* Thunder Road H. Matto Mondo 102
G2 R.B. Lewis Pioneerof the nile 94
G2 Strub S. Cowboy Cal 96

I thought Pioneer of the NIle ran a difficult race.
He got a bit squeezed on the turn and waited,
then swang out very wide and ran down the
leaders against
very moderate fractions.

Tough horse.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Kasept

G1 Las Virgenes Stardom Bound 84
G3* Thunder Road H. Matto Mondo 102
G2 R.B. Lewis Pioneerof the nile 94
G2 Strub S. Cowboy Cal 96

Let the debates begin, LOL.

Eric

[eajinabi]

Our favorite for the SA handicap hasnt even cracked the 100 beyer mark yet.
So sad.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

Our favorite for the SA handicap hasnt even cracked the 100 beyer mark yet.
So sad.

what did magnum get by the way?

[SOREHOOF]

Beyer speed figures mean NOTHING on Poly. Only slightly more on dirt. All Beyer speed figures subject to change! The edge used to be in having them back in the day. Now the edge is in ignoring them almost completely, except for deducing who the favorite may be.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

Beyer speed figures mean NOTHING on Poly. Only slightly more on dirt. All Beyer speed figures subject to change! The edge used to be in having them back in the day. Now the edge is in ignoring them almost completely, except for deducing who the favorite may be.

that doesn't make sense. you can't not use them but then use them to find the fave. if they're good enough to spot the fave, how can you say you can't use them to locate the second or third pick, and so on?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SOREHOOF

Beyer speed figures mean NOTHING on Poly. Only slightly more on dirt. All Beyer speed figures subject to change! The edge used to be in having them back in the day. Now the edge is in ignoring them almost completely, except for deducing who the favorite may be.

You're only half right there. Beyers mean nothing on the poly since the races have the dynamics of turf races yet the figures are calculated like dirt figures. They still mean a ton on the dirt though. And I wish they changed more figures cause I want the most accurate figures possible. I've never understood the ill conceived backlash when they change a figure, it just suggests an ignorance for wanting to know the truth.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

that doesn't make sense. you can't not use them but then use them to find the fave. if they're good enough to spot the fave, how can you say you can't use them to locate the second or third pick, and so on?

I thought it made perfect sense. I took it as meaning that they help you find out who will be favored because so many lazy handicappers will make the favorite the one with the highest Beyer, not because they are the most accurate.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I thought it made perfect sense. I took it as meaning that they help you find out who will be favored because so many lazy handicappers will make the favorite the one with the highest Beyer, not because they are the most accurate.

but if they aren't accurate, how can they properly identify the favorite? i give them a glance, but they're certainly not the only thing i look at-i doubt they are for anyone.

[blackthroatedwind]

The fastest horses, according to speed figures, were favored long before the Beyers were printed publically.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but if they aren't accurate, how can they properly identify the favorite? i give them a glance, but they're certainly not the only thing i look at-i doubt they are for anyone.

For everyone, they aren't. For a lot of people though, they are. The point that I believe the poster wasn't trying to make was not that they properly identify deserving favorites all the time but sometimes false ones that will be favored simply because of their high numbers. It's sort of how back in the day, especially on weekends, Shoemaker would be favored simply because he was Shoemaker and a lot of the novices would bet him for that reason alone. The same thing happened a lot with Pat Day at Oaklawn and Russell Baze gets it often up in Northern Cali.

[Kasept]

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:

*Mineshaft (FG): Honest Man (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 105
*Thunder Road (SA): Matto Mondo - Chi (R. Mandella/M. Smith) - 102
*San Antonio (SA): Magnum - Arg (D. Vienna/J. Rosario) - 100
*Tallahassee (GP): Vanquisher (G. Griffith/A. Garcia) - 100

*Colonel Power (FG): Chamberlain Bridge (W. Calhoun/H. Theriot II) - 99
*Essex (OP): Prom Shoes (W. Fires/C. Emigh) - 98
*Likely Exchange (TP): Unspoken Word (M. Maker/V. Lebron) - 98
*Strub (SA): Cowboy Cal (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 96
*Fair Grounds (FG): Diamond Tycoon (A. McKeever/J. Leparoux) - 96
*Risen Star (FG): Friesan Fire (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 96
*Silverbulletday (FG): War Echo (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 95
*Robert B. Lewis (SA): Pioneerof the Nile (B. Baffert/G. Gomez) - 94
*Super (Tam): Hypocrite (E. Tortora/M. Cruz) - 93
*Premier Night Sprint (FG): John Charles (S. Breaux/G. Melancon) - 92
*Marion County (GP): Scolara (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux) - 92
*Campanile (GG): Victorina (G. Gilchrist/R. Baze) - 92
*Whirlaway (Aqu): Haynesfield (S. Asmussen/R. Dominguez) - 90
*WEBN (TP): Parade Clown (K. Ball/W. Troilo) - 90
*Pan Zareta (FG): Precious Kiss (P. Mouton/J. Jacinto) - 90
*Premier Night Matron (FG): Sax Appeal (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan) - 90

*Get Lucky (Aqu): Awesome I Am (J. Terranova II/E. Castro) - 89
*Budweiser (Sun): Rapper S S (H. Dominguez/A. Medellin) - 89
*Premier Night Championship (FG): Star Guitar (A. Stall Jr./R. Albarado) - 89
*Rough Rogue (Aqu): Manteca (C. Baker/R. Maragh) - 87
*Premier Night Prince (FG): Two Nickel Bud (J. Cart/C. Hernandez) - 87
*Premier Night Distaff (FG): Superior Storm (R. Jackson/J. Jacinto) - 86
*Las Virgenes (SA): Stardom Bound (R. Frankel/M. Smith) - 84
*Premier Night Starlet (FG): Warrior Maid (J. Jones/T. Thompson) - 80

[10 pnt move up]

So Magnum gets a 100, that means the cheapest mdn claimers at the same distance two races before got 94? Wow is all I can say.

[Kasept]

If you have a chance, listen to Darryl Vienna and Bobby Frankel from Monday night's "At the Races" about the way the track is playing, or rather how the jocks are riding it. They both said that riders are using the "Keeneland" method where no one goes fast early and they all try to rally late. This synthetic phenomenon skews the speed figures.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

If you have a chance, listen to Darryl Vienna and Bobby Frankel from Monday night's "At the Races" about the way the track is playing, or rather how the jocks are riding it. They both said that riders are using the "Keeneland" method where no one goes fast early and they all try to rally late. This synthetic phenomenon skews the speed figures.

I know this, thats my point, when you see these figures of horses at Santa Anita you cant really judge them based on them like you would other dirt horses because they are very arbitrary. There is a whole lot of guessing going on.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I know this, thats my point, when you see these figures of horses at Santa Anita you cant really judge them based on them like you would other dirt horses because they are very arbitrary. There is a whole lot of guessing going on.

it's not a dirt track. that would be the same as comparing turf to dirt; an exercise in futility.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Danzig

it's not a dirt track. that would be the same as comparing turf to dirt; an exercise in futility.

but they are being compared all the time, on the triple crown we are hearing horses like Pioneer of the Nile is a nag and to slow, just look at the figures for the Futurity and the Lewis.

[Travis Stone]

I think one of the differentiators is when these horses move to dirt and are forced to run more "dirt-like" than the turf style of sit and run. The "How was the figure earned?" approach...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

but they are being compared all the time, on the triple crown we are hearing horses like Pioneer of the Nile is a nag and to slow, just look at the figures for the Futurity and the Lewis.

The reason Pioneer of the Nile is the most absurd possible Derby horse is that he can't run on the dirt. He is a mediocre turf horse, running on a turf course, that his competition can't particularly handle. My God, Bittel Road finished less than two lengths behind him. Take a step back and look at what is going on here.

And don't give me that " how do we know he can't run on the dirt " crap. We know.....because they know.

The bottom line is that this surface has particularly destroyed the TC prep season. One, it has elevated mediocre turf horses and fooled some people into thinking they are talented dirt horses, two, it has hampered dirt horses from actually getting to showcase their true talents, and three it has made the process of analyzing these preps virtually impossible. But, one thing it hasn't done, is made Pioneer of the Nile a true TC contender.