Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Breeders' Cup Archive
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #101  
Old 11-02-2016, 10:30 PM
taxicab's Avatar
taxicab taxicab is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 484
Default

I've been reading a lot lately about Songbird running slower than what she'll be facing Friday.
So I figured I would look up the 2015 BC @ Keenland and see how slow she was back then by comparison.
As a 2yo Filly this is how she shook out.......slower...huh ?

BC Juvy Filly:[Songbird] 23.60/47.15(23.55)/111.42(24.27)/1:36.33(24.91)/1:42.73(6.40).

BC Distaff:[Stellar Wind 2nd/Curalina 3rd/ I'm A Chatterbox 8th]
23.57/47.28(23.71)/111.49(24.21)/1:36.36(24.89)1:48.98(12.62).

BC Juvy:[Nyquist winner] 23.49/47.62(24.13)/112.14(24.52)/137.26(25.12)/1:43.79(6.53).

BC Classic:{AP}23.99/47.50(23.51)/111.21(24.26)/1:35.47(24.60)/2:00.07.

So time wise Songbird pretty much ran equal to SW/CUR/IAC did in the Distaff......while setting quicker fractions for the half/3/4's.
In the Distaff the 3 pacemakers all finished up the track.....SW/CUR benefitted from speed duel fractions that were slower then what Songbird set and drew out with.........all things considered,Songbird's Juvy was better than the Distaff.

Nyquist,the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner ran a much slower race up/down than Songbird......a full second+ slower than Songbird.

Now factor in a bigger,stronger....... undefeated in 7 Graded Stakes this year Songbird and I strongly suggest the word slower should never be used in the same sentence as Songbird.
Can Songbird get beat Friday?...........of course she can.
But it won't have a thing to do with her "numbers" or her "slower" way of going.
Reply With Quote
  #102  
Old 11-02-2016, 11:52 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by taxicab View Post
I've been reading a lot lately about Songbird running slower than what she'll be facing Friday.
So I figured I would look up the 2015 BC @ Keenland and see how slow she was back then by comparison.
As a 2yo Filly this is how she shook out.......slower...huh ?

BC Juvy Filly:[Songbird] 23.60/47.15(23.55)/111.42(24.27)/1:36.33(24.91)/1:42.73(6.40).

BC Distaff:[Stellar Wind 2nd/Curalina 3rd/ I'm A Chatterbox 8th]
23.57/47.28(23.71)/111.49(24.21)/1:36.36(24.89)1:48.98(12.62).

BC Juvy:[Nyquist winner] 23.49/47.62(24.13)/112.14(24.52)/137.26(25.12)/1:43.79(6.53).

BC Classic:{AP}23.99/47.50(23.51)/111.21(24.26)/1:35.47(24.60)/2:00.07.

So time wise Songbird pretty much ran equal to SW/CUR/IAC did in the Distaff......while setting quicker fractions for the half/3/4's.
In the Distaff the 3 pacemakers all finished up the track.....SW/CUR benefitted from speed duel fractions that were slower then what Songbird set and drew out with.........all things considered,Songbird's Juvy was better than the Distaff.

Nyquist,the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner ran a much slower race up/down than Songbird......a full second+ slower than Songbird.

Now factor in a bigger,stronger....... undefeated in 7 Graded Stakes this year Songbird and I strongly suggest the word slower should never be used in the same sentence as Songbird.
Can Songbird get beat Friday?...........of course she can.
But it won't have a thing to do with her "numbers" or her "slower" way of going.
I am confident in saying this is among the worst posts in the history of this message board.
Reply With Quote
  #103  
Old 11-03-2016, 12:05 AM
Alabama Stakes's Avatar
Alabama Stakes Alabama Stakes is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: suffolk downs
Posts: 5,353
Default

Elaborate.... you opened the clam
__________________
We’ll be back in just a little bit..
Reply With Quote
  #104  
Old 11-03-2016, 12:09 AM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
I am confident in saying this is among the worst posts in the history of this message board.
Apparently you forgot smooth operator and that insane vet from ky. You also forgot about pg1985.
Reply With Quote
  #105  
Old 11-03-2016, 12:56 AM
Conrad Conrad is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 995
Default Songbird

Never seen an undefeated multiple Gr1 winner so summarily dismissed by many big names in this game....okay, I remember Zenyatta

Pundits are quick to point out that she doesn't match up on speed figures.
But how does she match up on pace figures? According to BRISnet figures, she has a huge advantage over everyone at the first call.
Yes I know - the latest race between Beholder and Stellar Wind has nice pace numbers, but that E1 split (which is a 1/2m into the race) is more of an outlier than the norm.
It's entirely plausible that Songbird gets clear after a 1/2m and the other two big players wind up racing one another for the better part of this race. The challenge will come at some point from one or both (and ain't this why we love the sport?) and we may have a war for the ages.
Can't say who wins it, and I won't be betting it (unless Forever Unbridled goes off at a silly price) but I don't think Songbird will just wilt and close up shop when the big girls come calling.
Reply With Quote
  #106  
Old 11-03-2016, 02:08 AM
taxicab's Avatar
taxicab taxicab is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 484
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
I am confident in saying this is among the worst posts in the history of this message board.
I didn't realize you were so sensitive.
I apologize for making you cry.
Reply With Quote
  #107  
Old 11-03-2016, 09:50 AM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 7,441
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post
Apparently you forgot smooth operator and that insane vet from ky. You also forgot about pg1985.
And cannot leave out KentuckyRosesInMay, Sumitas, and Pedigree Ann.

It's going to take quite a bit more work to get into that hall of fame.
Reply With Quote
  #108  
Old 11-03-2016, 10:03 AM
Pants II's Avatar
Pants II Pants II is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 4,467
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
And cannot leave out KentuckyRosesInMay, Sumitas, and Pedigree Ann.

It's going to take quite a bit more work to get into that hall of fame.
KentuckyRosesInMay was a pioneer of the "this horse looks pretty" post-parade analysis. Except she never was paid for her work like the fine ladies who've carried her torch.
__________________
RIP identity politics 1965-2016
Reply With Quote
  #109  
Old 11-03-2016, 10:53 AM
Sightseek's Avatar
Sightseek Sightseek is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 11,027
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
And cannot leave out KentuckyRosesInMay, Sumitas, and Pedigree Ann.

It's going to take quite a bit more work to get into that hall of fame.
I literally LOL'ed thinking about THE SUMITAS POST.
__________________
Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma
Reply With Quote
  #110  
Old 11-04-2016, 08:52 AM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,961
Default

Here are the best current odds on the Distaff from 2 offshore books, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: (as of 9:45amEST)

Songbird 1.05 to 1, 5D
Lando'Sea 100-1, 5D
Curalina 20-1, 5D
CoronaD'Inca 80.5-1, Bookmaker
StellarWind 3.2-1, Bookmaker
ForeverUnb'd 21-1, Bookmaker
I'mChatterbox 21-1, Bookmaker
Beholder 3.85-1, 5D
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #111  
Old 11-04-2016, 09:45 AM
jms62's Avatar
jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 18,658
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
Here are the best current odds on the Distaff from 2 offshore books, 5Dimes and Bookmaker: (as of 9:45amEST)

Songbird 1.05 to 1, 5D
Lando'Sea 100-1, 5D
Curalina 20-1, 5D
CoronaD'Inca 80.5-1, Bookmaker
StellarWind 3.2-1, Bookmaker
ForeverUnb'd 21-1, Bookmaker
I'mChatterbox 21-1, Bookmaker
Beholder 3.85-1, 5D
Those are US Odds right if not is it a typo on Songbird?
Reply With Quote
  #112  
Old 11-04-2016, 05:52 PM
Dunbar's Avatar
Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,961
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
Those are US Odds right if not is it a typo on Songbird?
Yes, US odds. It was actually +105. 5Dimes has taken down its line for today's BC races (still has matchups, though)

Here are Bookmaker's current odds:

TO WIN LONGINES BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF - RACE 9
Songbird ODDS
+105
Land Over Sea
+8050
Curalina
+1699
Corona Del Inca (ARG)
+8050
Stellar Wind
+287
Forever Unbrindled
+2185
I'm a Chatterbox
+2185
Beholder
+369
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
Reply With Quote
  #113  
Old 11-04-2016, 06:12 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,458
Default

My selection is Songbird to win.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #114  
Old 11-04-2016, 07:11 PM
Sightseek's Avatar
Sightseek Sightseek is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 11,027
Default

After Beholder, I don't care what happens tomorrow!
__________________
Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma
Reply With Quote
  #115  
Old 11-04-2016, 07:28 PM
Rileyoriley's Avatar
Rileyoriley Rileyoriley is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: The Snowy Woods
Posts: 4,484
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek View Post
After Beholder, I don't care what happens tomorrow!



Although CC winning the BCC for Art Sherman would be damn close!
__________________
Hillary Clinton 2016: The "Extremely Careless" Leadership America Needs!
Reply With Quote
  #116  
Old 11-04-2016, 08:04 PM
LITF LITF is offline
Morris Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 128
Default

In a time where hyperbole has become the journalistic norm, I apologize for the following sentence. That was one of, if not, the best horse race I have ever seen.

Two champions just threw down. I'm so appreciative that I was able to see it live.

Thank you to the connections and everyone involved in what turned out to be a stellar race.

Let's think twice when we think about bashing these horses. Both proved their championship metal. Both are champions in my book. Thank you for the memories. That was simply awesome!
Reply With Quote
  #117  
Old 11-05-2016, 06:44 AM
taxicab's Avatar
taxicab taxicab is offline
Ellis Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 484
Default

The connections thoughts,along with the replay.....

http://www.drf.com/news/beholder-nos...rs-cup-distaff
Reply With Quote
  #118  
Old 11-05-2016, 09:58 AM
FATPIANO's Avatar
FATPIANO FATPIANO is offline
Sheepshead Bay
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: nys
Posts: 1,142
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sightseek View Post
After Beholder, I don't care what happens tomorrow!
that is I feel, I have never been happier , love , just love Beholder, gonna miss her
:{>
__________________
Arrogate is the best horse since The Bid, and The Bid was better than Secretariat!!!!
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:21 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.