Keeneland Spring notes

[philcski]

Day 1 4/2/10: Strong speed bias on the main track. Other than the McGaughey/Janney in the 5th who would have won by a pole otherwise, and the 10th where there was a runoff longshot leader by 4 (the eventual winner was in a 3 horse pack for 2nd at that point) every other winner was within a length of the lead at the 1/2 mile call.
Upgrade these horses next out: SOUTHERN EXCHANGE (hopped at the start, as well), YUKON PETE (made a good move on the inside on the turn before flattening out), OLD MAN BUCK (unless of course they decide to send the poor guy over jumps again), and TOUCH OF SUCCESS (who was one of the only horses to rally on the outside all day.)

[philcski]

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.

The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

[philcski]

Day 3 4/7/10: Strong closers' bias, which makes sense as there was a strong south wind so the frontrunners were running into it all the way down the backstretch and at 7F or the Beard course that is the majority of the race. Upgrade runners that ran on the pace especially those that stayed on well.

R2: Strong performance from winner FORTHEBOYSATTHEBAR, discount 3rd place finisher LOVEYOU EVERYBODY who was especially dull at 4/5.

R3: Upgrade TAHOE LAKE, who made a strong move down the backstretch while wide before flattening out. Probably not good enough to win a MSW at KEE but would be tough on a drop.

R4: Discount the performances of TANGLED SHEETS and BENTON DRIVE, who basically rode the bias to the win and show. Upgrade TAIF who made multiple moves while contending the pace.

R6: Upgrade MOYERS POND, who put in a strong move from the front of the pack while 4 wide to finish 2nd, and SHORE DO who took over the front and held well after the runaway speed collapsed. Discount TEND, who clunked up for 4th but the running line looks better than it really was.

R7: Moderate pace on the turf course meant the front runners held reasonably well, but upgrade the winner MISS KELLER who was dynamite and should be a stakes horse in the future. CONSEQUENCE was easily best of the speed; SWEETEST SONG and LA MOUSSE should be discounted.

R8: Strong performance from FRANNY FREUD, the only wire to wire/pace winner all day. Obviously she's among the top 2-3 3yo filly sprinters so this isn't a revelation. None of the other runners will win at this level.

R9: Huge performance from the Sam Houston shipper ZIPPIN E at 44-1, moved too early and still managed a strong 2nd. Wins next out with a more patient trip.

[chucklestheclown]

All these views and no replies...so thanks philcski.

[pweizer]

This is very good stuff. I thank you as well.

Paul

[philcski]

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

[chucklestheclown]

Do not worry...I saw today...except for the Wiley which got lost when I went to record NBC.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by philcski

Thanks guys. Thurs-Fri-Sat up tomorrow morning. Still reviewing tape because the RaceReplays website has been really bad lately, and even I can't remember every horse's trip...

I appreciate your efforts very much.

Paul

[philcski]

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

[philcski]

Day 5 4/9/10: Several multiple length winners on the day, which goes against the standard on poly where most races have less than a length finishes. I do think speed was good, but several of the runners that got away were just much the best which puts the opinion in question. Performance of the day goes to RAHYSTRADA, who took up exiting the turn, lacked room on the rerally, finally got clear behind the pace horses in a merry go round race and ran by them standing still. He won a G3 at 40-1 last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a huge run at big odds on Derby Day in the Woodford Reserve if they decide to go that route.

Like Thursday, not a whole lot of passing went on, so upgrade SHE'LL HEIR (who blew up the tote at $44 despite about as precocious breeding as you can find), KAREN ANN (wide throughout and green), INDIAN LADY (lost all chance at start), and CLOCKWORK ANGEL (who ran a remarkably good race despite being dismissed at 53/1 with form that fit with the group.)
Downgrade MARIA DARLIN (who packed it in despite a perfect trip), DERBY LANE'S SONG (who probably just isn't very good), LEAVENWORTH, COGNITO, and BIMINI (who inherited 2nd after the previous two just quit).

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Terrible analysis/interpretation of this race. Try to understand why these two set the race up for the winner and why, if there were a bias, they're supposed to hold on. I mean, one being a plug is possible, both being plugs kind of makes you wonder about the setup.

OK, I disagree completely. I wouldn't bet those horses back in similar conditions under any circumstances. Four Paws could not have had it any easier based on the bias setting easy fractions in the middle of the track, and while Cat Hop moved somewhat early from 3rd if you drop a horse like they did Rose Medallion on a speed biased track under no reasoning should you let that horse rerally AFTER she's already been in a drive, let alone let a Magical Prize type get by, especially considering that on paper they were the two to beat.

[philcski]

Day 6 4/10/10: Clear and warm for Blue Grass Stakes Day. No apparent pace or path biases.
Impressive debut from MUFFIN TOP, who went off favored against a moderate group and handled being pinned down on the inside and a stretch battle well only to lose a tough photo. I don't think much of anyone else in the race, though.
Downgrade WANDAFUL WANDAFUL, who got a pretty good trip sitting just behind the threesome dueling for the lead and showed very little resistance when EMPIRE SPRING went right by (got a perfect setup and ride by Gomez but was still a good win.)
FORDANGSHORE had to use a lot of energy early after missing the break but that was an ultimate hang job at 2/5. Credit FIVE STAR DAVID for battling back but I don't think I want anyone out of this race going forward, especially if FORDANGSHORE is a short price again.
Extremely impressive debut from DISCO TROOP who just crushed these, and no excuse for GALIENTOS who had everything his way. Big trip for HOOLIHAN who broke very slow then rushed up and couldn't sustain, would definitely bet this one back.
Probably the worst group of G2 older sprinters I've ever seen in the Commonwealth. In no circumstance would I bet any of these in a graded stake ever again.
Tough to really endorse anyone in the Blue Grass, either. Every horse in the race got the trip they needed except perhaps PADDY O' PRADO, who got a bit of pressure early from Odysseus before that one ultimately stopped and was injured. STATELY VICTOR obviously relished the poly and the only one that did any running at the end, but when INTERACTIF is your favorite, gets a perfect trip, and finishes 4th, what does that say? I'm going to say not a whole lot for anybody else. All are more likely to finish 20th than 1st in the Derby.

[philcski]

Day 7 4/11/10: Stalkers/closers had a good day, but those close to the pace who tucked in did OK. Those running directly into the wind with no cover seemed to struggle.

Strong performance from DIAMOND SONG, who did all the heavy lifting and fought off multiple challengers before finally giving it up late in the lane.

Upgrade HAWAIIAN SKY, who was wide the whole way and moved a bit too early. Would win with the same move at CD. Downgrade FLAT CHANCE who basically sucked up for 2nd with no real excuse against a moderate group.

Remarkable race from EXCITABLE BOY, who was the only pace horse around at the end and was bothered multiple times in the stretch yet still managed to rerally and finish 3rd. Downgrade the top two who got an ideal pace setup given the bias and the hot pace.

Upgrade FLASHY'S SONG, who fought off 3 challenges before succumbing late in the lane while 5 clear of 3rd. Winner DUOMO had an ideal trip and would need to improve to win at N1X. Lot of bumping between Genisa and Lookn Even Finer, but both just looked very tired.

HERE COMES BEN's performance looks a lot better on paper than it really was; very pedestrian fractions and was gifted the lead after breaking 4th because the other riders took back. Upgrade CALIMONCO who rallied wide late despite the slow fractions.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.

The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

First bet back wins and pays $9.40.

[philcski]

Day 8 4/14/10: Several wire jobs and those that weren't were pretty heavy favorites; I think it's fair to say speed was good again at least at sprints. The one route race was inconclusive and should probably be reviewed on its own.

MAX THE KNIFE made a decent rally to get up for 2nd but I believe the margin of victory understates what the true result was; ENNIS was wrapped up and measured while MTK made his final thrust. Would downgrade BLACK PATCH, who just quit after looking comfortable and probably needs to go back to MNR.

Only one worth betting back from the 3rd, FURILLO, who just blew these away with a strong move exiting the turn. Everyone else should be ignored. Asmussen grabbed DUMBLEDORE out of here... I would wonder why.

Would take a strong look at PROUD JARED next out. Got off slow and looked like he didn't know what he was doing out there but then when asked he picked off 4 horses in a flash entering the turn. Flattened out after the big move but would expect major improvement in the second start. DEETS obviously ran well for his debut but have to think some of it was bias aided.

Oddly run race in the seventh, reminiscent of the early Keeneland poly where glacial fractions would still have frontrunners collapse. If anybody still wonders whether Tampa is a good place to winter, the top two were coming out of there. On paper a premature move from GORE BAY, but in truth she stopped running as soon she made the front. Would be hesitant on this one.

[alphanumeric1]

Originally Posted by philcski

First bet back wins and pays $9.40.

Good work. I appreciate your analysis. Thanks.

[philcski]

Some entry notes:


Hyracotherium is entered to run on April 21, 2010, at KEENELAND.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/3 should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch.



Tangled Sheets is entered to run on April 21, 2010, at KEENELAND.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/7 Discount the performance rode the bias to the win



Wandaful Wandaful is entered to run on April 21, 2010, at KEENELAND.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/10 pretty good trip sitting just behind the threesome dueling for the lead and showed very little resistance when EMPIRE SPRING went right by



Holy Moment is entered to run on April 23, 2010, at ATLANTIC CITY.

Your comments for this horse were: 4/3 dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.


Full Entries for Race



Race: 4 - 5:00 PM Exacta / Trifecta

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Purse: $ 27,000. For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 116 Lbs.; Older, 123 Lbs. (horses Which Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000 In Their Last 3 Starts Preferred). One And One Eighth Miles. (Turf)

PP Horse A/S Med Jockey Wgt Trainer
7 Holy Moment 4/F L A. R. Napravnik 123 H. Graham Motion


Looks like HOLY MOMENT may have found an ideal spot for a bet back. Curious to see the PP's for this race.

[philcski]

Day 9 4/15/10: Very warm and not much wind; the track played relatively fair with no apparent pace or path biases.

Pretty impressive performance from PARIOLI'S TRICK, who sustained a long drive to score at 13-1 on the outside. The fractions were pretty average for this level so I think he deserves an upgrade. KATOLAK COWBOY would be tough on a return to Chicago at the same level.

ELLIDAY had to check mildly several times and when a hole finally appeared to open it got shut off and he had to take up a bit and was wrapped up after that; worth a look on a drop to straight claimers where she could get to the front with a cleaner trip.

While I'm sure it's not her best surface and was off a long layoff, HEART ASHLEY was lucky to win a photo after setting very moderate fractions. I'd play against her on any upward class move. BEST LASS was clearly best rallying strongly after those fractions late.

Pretty destructive pace battle between TIZ STORMY NOW, KITTY'S DREAM, and USE SOMEBODY, especially for a group of first time starters. Note the fractions were faster than the previous race... at a longer distance. Would take a long look at any of these at CD.

GOLD MEDALLION is not a router. Not sure what the bettors were thinking when he opened up 4/5 and and ended as 2nd choice; going 5F on the turf at GP to 9F at KEE is just about impossible, and he proved that after setting glacial fractions only to get crushed by MINT CHIP who was very impressive off the layoff.

Dreadful DQ in the last for 4th as JAZZ DANCER bumped HOW ABOUT ALEXIS mildly as the latter was fading and beaten; anyways, SHEZA HEARTBREAKER was certainly that as she ran just as well as the winner at 11-1. Almost a cinch next out at the same level.

[dalakhani]

Good stuff phil.