Tenfold

[moses]

Every time I look at Tenfold, I like him more and more for the Belmont. Can somebody tell me I’m crazy or missing something?

He runs well in the slop and on a dry surface. He seems to get better with every race. He finished 3rd in the Preakness but I thought his performance was at least better than Bravazo who edged him out to get 2nd.

And the pedigree - Curlin on one side and Tapit as the damsire.

Am I looking too much into the pedigree or are we all going to be looking back at Tenfold and saying, “Yeah, that makes sense. His pedigree is phenomenal for the distance.”

[Lava]

I don't think you are crazy, I really like him and Hofburg. I maybe the crazy one as I really think Justify won't hit the board.

[pb72vett]

Thats called living a dream.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Lava

I don't think you are crazy, I really like him and Hofburg. I maybe the crazy one as I really think Justify won't hit the board.

EXACTA - ly what I'm looking for!

[moses]

Originally Posted by richard burch

EXACTA - ly what I'm looking for!

My exacta wagers will make up the bulk of my bets. If we can get Justify out of the top 2, there should be some pretty good value there. I’m hesitant to exclude Justify from my trifecta wagers though. Could this be a California Chrome situation? Sure. That’s what I’m hoping for. But I think he’s too good to completely exclude.

I’m hoping to see Tenfold at 15-1 or higher. He’s 12-1 in the morning line but I think that could go up a little. I expect Gronkowski to get much more money put on him than he deserves, so hopefully that’ll inflate some of the odds for the choices in the middle of the pack.

[moses]

Originally Posted by pb72vett

Thats called living a dream.

Haha, maybe. I just can’t bring myself to bet on Justify, not with him almost getting caught in the Preakness. I thought he would win a lot more convincingly there. Had him keyed on top in my trifecta and superfecta. I expected him to win by a couple lengths. Three horses within 1 of him and a fourth horse 1 back made him look very beatable, especially at 12 furlongs.

[Alabama Stakes]

^

[Snapshot]

You might be a little optimistic about Justify running away with it. Besides at 3-5 or so there isn't much value there. I really believe Hofburg and Tenfold will give him all he can handle.

[moses]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

I mean think about it for a minute, A hand ride too victory in a grade 1! Really


Great big Majestic Beast trouncing 4 legged animals at the big sandy!

It’s possible. He’s a great horse. But plenty of great horses have struggled in the Belmont. Is he the same horse he was at Santa Anita or Churchill? He didn’t look it in the Preakness, though still besting the field. But I wonder — if Bravazo had somehow managed to edge Justify out at Pimlico, would Justify even be running tomorrow? And would he be a below-even-money favorite? I guess we’ll never know but it’s amazing how much half a length can change our view on things.

[moses]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

I never said anything about odds or value, there is more value at 3/5 than wiping your rear end with a win ticket on any other horse. My Optimism.... my opinion has to do with the facts.

Had a similar discussion before the Derby on the difference between Bolt-D and Justify. fact was Desourmeax beat the living hell out of Bolt-D, and had no chance at hanging with Justify who won having fun. The retort was that Bolt D wasn’t beaten like a step child and was la D off with a furlong to go. A complete blind observation. Do people really actually watch a race? Anyway, check my post as I tries to help the poor lad out. I think we all saw what happened to the Bolt.

Finally. Really watch the Preakness. When Smith decided to make his move, it was a hand ask, and Justify dropped his rear end and excellerated like a Porsche from 5th to 3rd gear. He swallowed Magic like he was moving backwards. At that point you can observe Smith ride that momentum to the extent it became the necessary lead to set up a big punch from the whip. When cracked Justify poped again and Smith rode it out. Horses closing or not, Smith (not a fan) is still a HoF jockey who is very much aware of where the wire is at. Very smart and experienced move that demonstrates the confidence he had in the abilities of this Beast, and the fact that he knew the big one was still to come.

Justify opens up to a one, two, now 3 length lead, it’s alll Justification at this point as JUSTIFY wins the triple crown in a jaw dropping performance.

Good luck

You may be right and thanks for the input, it’s appreciated. It seems like there are two factions: those who think Justify will win easily and those who think he won’t even hit the board. I guess I’m in the middle. I think he’s the best horse in the race but I think he’s tired and I’m willing to bet against him with history on my side. Regardless of his resume, it’s hard to win the Triple Crown. I think this will be a tough race for him. I’m happy to place some bets against him. If he beats me, I’ll just have to tip my cap to him.

[moses]

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli

Well if your right, and can catch him in the 3 or 4th spot, you will get paid!

The perfect day for me would be Tenfold then Vino Rosso then Blended Citizen. That seems extremely unlikely but that’s probably the biggest payout for me. I’ll be happy if Tenfold wins it.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

It seems like there are two factions: those who think Justify will win easily and those who think he won’t even hit the board. I guess I’m in the middle.

I guess I'm in the middle, too. I think Justify is by far the most likely winner of the Belmont, but at the same time, I think it's more likely he doesn't win than does win. So if he indeed goes off at 1-1 or lower, which seems likely, I'll be looking to bet some other horses to win.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I guess I'm in the middle, too. I think Justify is by far the most likely winner of the Belmont, but at the same time, I think it's more likely he doesn't win than does win. So if he indeed goes off at 1-1 or lower, which seems likely, I'll be looking to bet some other horses to win.

Glad to know I’m not alone in my thoughts. Are you leaning toward any particular horses?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Glad to know I’m not alone in my thoughts. Are you leaning toward any particular horses?

I won't know until I make a line, and laziness is keeping me from doing that until I'm confident that Justify will be no higher that 1-1. I do hope I'll be able to rationalize bets on Hofburg, Bravazo and/or Tenfold, though. If I could bet on every other horse in the race in amounts that would net me 1-1 no matter which one won, I would. But that's not going to happen.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I won't know until I make a line, and laziness is keeping me from doing that until I'm confident that Justify will be no higher that 1-1. I do hope I'll be able to rationalize bets on Hofburg, Bravazo and/or Tenfold, though. If I could bet on every other horse in the race in amounts that would net me 1-1 no matter which one won, I would. But that's not going to happen.

I think he’ll be under 1-1. Over the last 30 years, the highest odds for a horse that won the first two legs was I believe 8-5 (Charismatic). The others to go off above even money were War Emblem at I believe 6-5 and Silver Charm who was just slightly above even money. I think that’s it. Funny Cide was exactly 1-1.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

I think he’ll be under 1-1. Over the last 30 years, the highest odds for a horse that won the first two legs was I believe 8-5 (Charismatic). The others to go off above even money were War Emblem at I believe 6-5 and Silver Charm who was just slightly above even money. I think that’s it. Funny Cide was exactly 1-1.

It doesn't look like Justify will be wildly overbet. With $2.67 million in the win pool, $1.14 million has been bet on Justify. That's just 43% of the win pool on Justify. 43% is in the ballpark for what I think his chances to win are.

I doubt that there will be a big rush of money on Justify. Justify's odds have been creeping up all day at PinnacleSports, and now stand at 1.10-1. (And if you want to bet that Justify doesn't win, you have to put up 125 to win 100, up from 116 earlier.)

It looks like I'll be a spectator on this one.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It doesn't look like Justify will be wildly overbet. With $2.67 million in the win pool, $1.14 million has been bet on Justify. That's just 43% of the win pool on Justify. 43% is in the ballpark for what I think his chances to win are.

I doubt that there will be a big rush of money on Justify. Justify's odds have been creeping up all day at PinnacleSports, and now stand at 1.10-1. (And if you want to bet that Justify doesn't win, you have to put up 125 to win 100, up from 116 earlier.)

It looks like I'll be a spectator on this one.

Final odds were 4/5 but you were wise not to bet against him.

One note on Tenfold, but it looks like he got stuck between two horses converging early, got pinched a bit, and had to awkwardly pull out and duck inside. Granted, I think that had little impact on the results and I’m not sure if the horses even touched. Maybe talking about him 3rd or 4th instead of 5th, if he improved at all which is debatable. Still, probably a bad move by the jockey to try to out sprint Noble Indy and Restoring Hope.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by moses

Final odds were 4/5 but you were wise not to bet against him.

Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.

If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds.

My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.

If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds.

My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.

Outstanding M/L redboarding, seriously world-class Monday Quarterbacking stuff

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Outstanding M/L redboarding, seriously world-class Monday Quarterbacking stuff

Wow, Freddy, thanks so much for that shrewd observation. Here I thought I was fessing up to some shoddy thinking and writing. Little did I realize that my real goal was to point out that my estimate of Justify's chances, after admittedly slanting them in Justify's favor, lined up with the betting pool.

I'm grateful that you took the time to read it and set me straight.