11/21: Aquedect ($263k P6 C/O; $37k NYRA Bets P5 C/O)

[Kasept]

AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$263k P6 C/O starts here..

Complex sequence(s) start with this MDN turf puzzle where those with experience are OK and firsters from Brown (Demarchelier), Casse (Lisbon), Pletcher (Dr. English), Clement (Sea of Hope) and Wayne Potts (American Commander) add to the confusion. Mott (Seismic Wave) and Clement (A.P. Indian half Malthael) players start the discussion and though Handel (Bronxville) isn't strong getting runners to win moving to grass, note that sire He's Had Enough is having success with his progeny trying the lawn (4/18 for 22% first turf)..

Best Value: #3 Seismic Wave 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Malthael 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Demarchelier 7-2 WON ($6.30)
Super Add: #7 Bronxville 15-1 8th


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-T/Outer (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

$37k NYRA Bets P5 C/O starts here..

P5 starts with 7-5 fave Mrs. Ramona G. who looks vulnerable. Eloweasel constantly loses ground under Johnny, but is the right key. Nomorerichblondes could move up for Rice moving to turf..

Best Value: #7 Eloweasel 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Nomorerichblondes 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Mrs. Ramona G. 7-5 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #5 Annie Rocks 5-1 3rd


6th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

This is the kind of race that can make or break P6's with a small budget single like Okeamo (MSW to MCLM) knocking out many if he falters. Problem is that the rest of this lineup is a cast of very shaky suspects. Millies Party Boy, Clonedsimmard and Dublin Leprechaun have races within range of the favorite and slowish router Local Edition is trying dirt for the first time while adding blinkers for Tom Bush..

Most Likely: #7 Okeamo 6-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #8 Local Edition 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Millies Party Boy 5-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Raging Fire 15-1 3rd


7th: MSW, 3+, 9.5f-T/Outer (P3, DD)

Here's a gallopers event to start the second half of the P6 and it looks like they'll be chasing Chantry Flats who just missed in similar gambit 10/25. Rhode Island, Argonne and Mini P are the nearest pursuers and newly gelded Azzedine (20-1) is far from impossible getting back to lawn for turf route upsetter-by-appointment Naipaul Chatterpaul..

Best Value: #3 Rhode Island 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #1a Argonne 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Chantry Flats 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Mini P 7-2 WON ($11.60)


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD)

If you've made it this far, the nominal feature will give you a headache with not a single cast member an easy toss. Pace looks legit and potentially swift, so stalker/closers will have their shot. Cerretalto, 2/2 this strip, not only returns to state bred company, but runs for the $40k tag having cleared the NY/N2X in February. Gets 5-9 pounds on field with Reylu and should get nice behind-the-speed trip. And he's 8-1. T Loves a Fight (12-1) & Sicilia Mike (8-1) are also prices that look to run. Benevolence has been consistent for 'Aqueduct Mike' Tannuzzo. Blewitt returns but feels like an underlay (9-5) against field of hard hitters..

Best Value: #8 Cerretalto 8-1 WON ($11.80)
Next Best: #6 Benevolence 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Sicilia Mike 8-1 4th-DH
Super Add: #1 T Loves a Fight 12-1 7th


9th: NY-CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Tricky nightcap with 9yo war horse Fox Rules up front and blinkered stretchout player Tiz a Chance potentially pressing. Macagone feels likely to draft close and Mobridge should enjoy a cozy inside suck-along voyage. With Exultation and Cloontia merit looks..

Most Likely: #1 Mobridge 3-1 2nd-DH
Best Value: #9 With Exultation 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Cloontia 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Macagone 5-2 9th
Super Add: #2 Fox Rules 8-1 2nd-DH


P6 Grid:

4: 3-8 (A), 1 (B), 5-7-9 (C)
5: 7 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
6: 7 (A), - (B), 1-5-8 (C)
7: 1-3 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)
8: 6-8 (A), 4 (B), 1-2-7-9 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), 2-4-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x1x2x3x5 = 90 x $2 = $180
All A's: 2x1x1x2x2x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


P6 P5 Grid:

5: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
6: 7 (A), - (B), 1-5-8 (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-6 (C)
8: 4-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-7-9 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), 2-4-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x4x3x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

6: 7 (A), 8 (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
7: 1-2-3-7 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
8: 4-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-7-9 (C)
9: 1-9 (A), 2-4-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x4x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


Good luck!
Steve

[moses]

Thanks Steve! Appreciate the analysis.

For Race 5, you said that #7 Eloweasel is the right key but you’ve got #2 Mrs. Ramona G singled in your Pick 6. Is that right?

A little bit interested in the #9 Sea of Hope for race 4. Irad gets the mount and the workouts have been looking pretty good and wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run well on turf.

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks Steve! Appreciate the analysis.

For Race 5, you said that #7 Eloweasel is the right key but you’ve got #2 Mrs. Ramona G singled in your Pick 6. Is that right?

A little bit interested in the #9 Sea of Hope for race 4. Irad gets the mount and the workouts have been looking pretty good and wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run well on turf.

THX Moishe..

Eloweasel the single. Agree Sea of Hope lurks. Could only get him in as a C though.

Good luck! Fun card..