Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender? Part II.

[moses]

I'm curious to see how everyone's thoughts have changed. Last time, Essential Quality got 1 vote and Concert Tour led the way with 6 votes. Of course, that was before Concert Tour's big disappointment in the Arkansas Derby.

Now that all the derby preps are in the books, who do you have as the top Derby contender?

[moses]

The first poll had 18 votes, with 1 for Essential Quality. This poll currently has 18 votes, with 2 for Essential Quality.

For a horse expected to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, that's pretty lukewarm.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

The first poll had 18 votes, with 1 for Essential Quality. This poll currently has 18 votes, with 2 for Essential Quality.

For a horse expected to be the Kentucky Derby favorite, that's pretty lukewarm.

I’m shocked Rock Your World has 7 votes.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’m shocked Rock Your World has 7 votes.

Every horse seems to have a few question marks so I think people are gravitating to the one horse that really wowed in his last derby prep. I also have no clue if people are factoring in expected odds when they're voting (possibly explaining why Essential Quality has the same number of votes as Soup and Sandwich.)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’m shocked Rock Your World has 7 votes.

It makes handicapping the race much easier

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Every horse seems to have a few question marks so I think people are gravitating to the one horse that really wowed in his last derby prep. I also have no clue if people are factoring in expected odds when they're voting (possibly explaining why Essential Quality has the same number of votes as Soup and Sandwich.)

Yeah hard to know the reasons, but it seems like he will be an underlay, IMO. Maybe he’s a freak, but I thought the day of the SA Derby was very kind to inside speed and those in the outer paths seemed to be struggling. I don’t think he’s fast enough to make the front in the Derby and I’m interested to see if he can take kickback.

[ninetoone]

I'm pretty interested in Highly Motivated & I think he's got the potential to get somewhat lost on the board, especially considering some of love the others are likely to get. I'll be watching his training very closely in the weeks ahead.

[cakes44]

How the heck are we supposed to know this without the dapple report on Derby Week?

[knickslions2]

This is a nice complicated race for sure like derby should be. Hot Rod Charlie looks to be sitting on a big one and ONeill knows how to win this race. Would rather Rosario then Prat. Essential Quality is a winner and I loved his last gutty win against a real tough horse in highly motivated who had everything go his way. Known Agenda is at top form but pletcher always concerns me in derby as I feel his horses tend to peak in preps to get into derby but should get a nice setup in this race. Rock your world looked awesome in Santa Anita race and distance shouldn’t be a concern. One race only on dirt and this race should be quick up front. As for the rest most look the same but will watch works and look closer as derby gets here.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah hard to know the reasons, but it seems like he will be an underlay, IMO. Maybe he’s a freak, but I thought the day of the SA Derby was very kind to inside speed and those in the outer paths seemed to be struggling. I don’t think he’s fast enough to make the front in the Derby and I’m interested to see if he can take kickback.

To be honest, I'm very intrigued by Rock Your World. Even if he did benefit from some type of track bias, isn't he eligible to improve upon that in his 2nd start on dirt? I think he could make the front in the Derby. I'm just not sure it gives him his best shot to win, especially if the pace heats up as expected.

The rest of the field is just very uninspiring. Essential Quality can't be totally dismissed and Known Agenda seems to be coming on at the right time...but I can't really get excited about any of the other horses.

[moses]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

This is a nice complicated race for sure like derby should be. Hot Rod Charlie looks to be sitting on a big one and ONeill knows how to win this race. Would rather Rosario then Prat. Essential Quality is a winner and I loved his last gutty win against a real tough horse in highly motivated who had everything go his way. Known Agenda is at top form but pletcher always concerns me in derby as I feel his horses tend to peak in preps to get into derby but should get a nice setup in this race. Rock your world looked awesome in Santa Anita race and distance shouldn’t be a concern. One race only on dirt and this race should be quick up front. As for the rest most look the same but will watch works and look closer as derby gets here.

Hot Rod Charlie has me mixed because I really just don't know how good any of those Fair Grounds horses are. Mandaloun didn't show up in the Louisiana Derby and Proxy needed a break, I think. Midnight Bourbon is an alright horse, I guess but I'm not sold on him as a legitimate derby horse. Then again, Hot Rod Charlie ran pretty well off the layoff in the Robert Lewis and ran even better in the Louisiana Derby, so maybe he is going to run even bigger on May 1. Hard to know.

[King Glorious]

I'm one of the two that has Essential Quality. The only other one I can see is Rock Your World but I think it's really Essential Quality's race to lose. Having said that, even he didn't impress me last out.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm one of the two that has Essential Quality. The only other one I can see is Rock Your World but I think it's really Essential Quality's race to lose. Having said that, even he didn't impress me last out.

I like the same two but until the post draw I don't think about it much. If the fav is in the 1 hole I'm not betting on him.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse who has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who came up just a nose shy of winning the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of 58 horses that left those gates won, giving the gates a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 1.01% (1-for-99).

[jms62]

Originally Posted by richard burch

I like the same two but until the post draw I don't think about it much. If the fav is in the 1 hole I'm not betting on him.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand in 1986. The only horse who has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since then is Real Quiet, the 1998 Derby winner who came up just a nose shy of winning the Triple Crown. Before 1987, 19 of 58 horses that left those gates won, giving the gates a 10.9% win rate. Since 1987, the win rate for posts 1, 2, or 3 is just 1.01% (1-for-99).

These kind of stats kept me off Justify and Big Brown

[moses]

Timeform released an early pace projector and it has Rock Your World able to get the lead and only Caddo River anywhere close to him. It's way early, but I've got to think Cox runs Caddo River or else this race could set up perfectly for Rock Your World.

[Kasept]

[Dahoss]

I’m going to respectfully disagree that Rock Your World is going to be ahead of Caddo River early

[wac]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It makes handicapping the race much easier

You dont like rock your world i take it? I thought his race in SA derby was pretty good but if im missing something let me know b/c i know you are a really good handicapper. thanks

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by wac

You dont like rock your world i take it? I thought his race in SA derby was pretty good but if im missing something let me know b/c i know you are a really good handicapper. thanks

Seems like he won the SA Derby under ideal circumstances, controlled the pace ( which is highly unlikely to happen in the KY Derby ) and ran on the inside which seems to have been a distinct advantage that day. I suppose he can win, but he’s a bit dressed up by circumstance, and he looks like a potential dramatic underlay.

I rarely pick the Derby winner. My Preakness record is MUCH stronger:-)

[wac]

thank you for the response. he did control the pace that day but i guess i have put to much into his races before the SA derby just thought they looked good and the way he quickened was good. I will agree that he is going to be bet and depress any good odds.