Who is your top Kentucky Derby contender?

[moses]

We are only a month away from the Kentucky Derby and should hopefully get some clarity after the April 3rd prep races. I know what the futures odds say but I'm sort of curious to see who everyone sees as the top Derby horse at this moment.

[moses]

Thanks for anyone who voted so far.

A little surprised to see only one vote for Essential Quality so far. Though I don't like him at the odds he's been in the future wagers, I still consider him pretty close to the top of this list.

I've been high on Concert Tour for a couple months now but still waiting for that "wow" moment from him. The Rebel was a very nice win but I think he's got another level in him that we haven't seen yet.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

We are only a month away from the Kentucky Derby and should hopefully get some clarity after the April 3rd prep races. I know what the futures odds say but I'm sort of curious to see who everyone sees as the top Derby horse at this moment.

I’m not sure we got any clarity after today’s races.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m not sure we got any clarity after today’s races.

You can cross out Prevalence, Weyburn, and the NY Chad Brown horses from the Derby.

A couple new shooters in Rock Your World and Highly Motivated. Personally, I wouldn't put them high up on the list especially with extra distance to deal with, but if they go to Churchill at least we can have more confidence in a contested early pace.

Medina Spirit suddenly becomes interesting at a price. Is he tailing off? Is he a cut below? Or will he be another Real Quiet, where everything falls into place on Derby Day (bolstered perhaps by his status as the "other Baffert")?

[Dahoss]

Still feels like Known Agenda is the now horse.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

You can cross out Prevalence, Weyburn, and the NY Chad Brown horses from the Derby.

Personally, I had already written off 3 of those 4 horses, though I guess I can chisel it in stone now.

A couple new shooters in Rock Your World and Highly Motivated. Personally, I wouldn't put them high up on the list especially with extra distance to deal with, but if they go to Churchill at least we can have more confidence in a contested early pace.

So you’re saying Greatest Honour fans will be around for another 4 weeks?

Medina Spirit suddenly becomes interesting at a price. Is he tailing off? Is he a cut below? Or will he be another Real Quiet, where everything falls into place on Derby Day (bolstered perhaps by his status as the "other Baffert")?

He is an interesting horse. I tend to think he is a cut below the top horses. But then I look at the top horses and I’m not really sold on any of them. Essential Quality is the most consistent but he certainly doesn’t tower over the competition. I need to watch the Santa Anita Derby again. At first glance, Rock Your World seemed pretty impressive.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

PAt first glance, Rock Your World seemed pretty impressive.

Definitely a talented horse given his record and pedigree. Had to work a bit to establish the lead entering the backstretch but still was able to bust the race open heading to the 1/4 pole. Medina Spirit was the only thing in there with any foundation that could have conceivably reeled him in after that.

On the negative side, he struggled to switch leads entering the stretch, drifted in, then switched back to his left lead at the 1/16th pole. Rispoli was a bit over-animated on the horse down the lane (something else to worry about on Derby Day) so maybe that accounts for some of the awkwardness of the stretch run.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Definitely a talented horse given his record and pedigree. Had to work a bit to establish the lead entering the backstretch but still was able to bust the race open heading to the 1/4 pole. Medina Spirit was the only thing in there with any foundation that could have conceivably reeled him in after that.

On the negative side, he struggled to switch leads entering the stretch, drifted in, then switched back to his left lead at the 1/16th pole. Rispoli was a bit over-animated on the horse down the lane (something else to worry about on Derby Day) so maybe that accounts for some of the awkwardness of the stretch run.

The Twitterverse seems to love that he was many, many lengths ahead with his gallop out. That might suggest that the late lead switch isn't something to be too concerned about?

I'm not sure. I'm wondering if Medina Spirit and Dream Shake have simply not improved.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

The Twitterverse seems to love that he was many, many lengths ahead with his gallop out. That might suggest that the late lead switch isn't something to be too concerned about?

I'm not sure. I'm wondering if Medina Spirit and Dream Shake have simply not improved.

Never impressed with gallop outs. Velasquez wrapped up on Medina Spirit late and Dream Shake has done nothing in the stretch in either of his routes. Dream Shake's connections better regroup with that horse else he's not going to fulfill any of the promise he's shown.

The late lead switch isn't as concerning as the struggle to switch leads appropriately entering the stretch. But Justify did something similar in his Santa Anita Derby with just 2 starts under his belt, so maybe you can chalk it up to greeness (although at the same time Justify wasn't particularly sound, either).

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Never impressed with gallop outs. Velasquez wrapped up on Medina Spirit late and Dream Shake has done nothing in the stretch in either of his routes. Dream Shake's connections better regroup with that horse else he's not going to fulfill any of the promise he's shown.

The late lead switch isn't as concerning as the struggle to switch leads appropriately entering the stretch. But Justify did something similar in his Santa Anita Derby with just 2 starts under his belt, so maybe you can chalk it up to greeness (although at the same time Justify wasn't particularly sound, either).

I'd like to see Dream Shake cut back to one turn again and see how he does. He also has some successful turf runners in his family so maybe that's an option for him at some point. Whatever they do, hopefully they figure it out.