Two at Toga (2023)

[theguarantee]

Will update records sometime after today's races but both of my picks yesterday were dreadful. Luckily I was also alive to the #11 in the late pick-4 in the last and took some extra 10/1 based on that crazy betting (sorry for the redboard).

Best Value: Race 8 - #2 Sister Annie 20/1 - There's a good bit of speed signed on here but going to take a chance that Kendrick can come through for me again today by getting ultra aggressive and hope the others think it's cheap sprinting speed/let her lope along and she forgets to stop today.

Best Value: Race 10 - #5 Red Butterfly - The debut was pretty solid, second start was strangled back needlessly and bumped hard when presumably about to make her move. Toss the dirt effort plus that preempted a move to the sideline so maybe something went wrong. Going 7F just too demanding off a long layoff. At the right class level, distance and surface today and actually has good gate speed to get early position.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Will update records sometime after today's races but both of my picks yesterday were dreadful. Luckily I was also alive to the #11 in the late pick-4 in the last and took some extra 10/1 based on that crazy betting (sorry for the redboard).

Best Value: Race 8 - #2 Sister Annie 20/1 - There's a good bit of speed signed on here but going to take a chance that Kendrick can come through for me again today by getting ultra aggressive and hope the others think it's cheap sprinting speed/let her lope along and she forgets to stop today.

Best Value: Race 10 - #5 Red Butterfly - The debut was pretty solid, second start was strangled back needlessly and bumped hard when presumably about to make her move. Toss the dirt effort plus that preempted a move to the sideline so maybe something went wrong. Going 7F just too demanding off a long layoff. At the right class level, distance and surface today and actually has good gate speed to get early position.

Good luck. I expect a bomb in race 8. I personally like Linny Kate but Sister Annie is capable. Good luck with her.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck. I expect a bomb in race 8. I personally like Linny Kate but Sister Annie is capable. Good luck with her.

2,5,7,10 for coverge

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m not sure but you should play along today with my picks. I feel pretty good about them.

Not a great day but not a bad day either. Fontanafredda spotted them all a couple lengths at the start before running her way back into the race. She looked like a winner in late stretch but was run down to lose by a nose and paying $4.30 for 2nd. Colonial Rose got a great start, settled in, and made her move but just wasn’t good enough today. She paid $11.20 to place.

$72.00 wagered
$107.50 returned

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

2,5,7,10 for coverge

Good luck!

[moses]

Wednesday picks.

First bet: Race 4 - #3 Maryquitecontrary, 9/2. People will probably bill this as a duel between Echo Zulu and Frank’s Rockette but Maryquitecontrary is a very nice, developing 4YO that has never finished out of the top 2 in 8 career starts, which include a win in the G2 Inside Information Stakes and place behind Goodnight Olive in the G1 Madison. She’s a serious racehorse and I believe will benefit from the fact that Frank’s Rockette will need to challenge Echo Zulu early in order to prevent her from wiring the field. I love that Shug keeps Luca Panici on as he has guided her to all 6 of her wins. The works on the two favorites are a bit uninspiring so why not take a shot with this improving 4YO?

Second bet: Race 7 - #8 Arrest Me Red, 5/2. I really want to give Coppola another shot but no published works since June and he came up flat in the last two races against top competition. Going to have to wait and see with him. Arrest Me Red is the best turf sprinter in here and should handle this group.

[moses]

Thursday picks.

First bet: Race 10 - #9 Charging, 4/1. Brad Cox was quick to scratch Charging from his most recent scheduled start when the turf came up wet for the Quick Call. This is a bit of an easier spot and I think Brad will have this one geared up. I’d be happy to get the 4/1 ML.

Second bet: Race 5 - #7 Miss Carol Ann, 6/1. I suspect the Brown horses will take a lot of money. I don’t know how good that horse is that Beaute Cachee beat last time out and I prefer Pleasant Passage to Veronica Greene of the horses coming out of that June 18 race at Belmont. I want to go a little outside the box here and landed on Miss Carol Ann. She is a nice big horse who I don’t think was suited for the 7 furlong distance. She looked great once she got into her stride back in September in the Pebbles. 3 horses in here add blinkers so I am looking for her to get a rail trip throughout then explode once she hits the stretch.

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.60

Race 5: #12 Relate - 6/1 - Tough post but like this one second off the layoff finding the right level today.

Race 10: #10 Sharp Play Boy 15/1 - This is a pretty hungry field so went searching for a price. I like to ignore GP races when coming back to NY and this one lost all chance at the start/got no trip at all in the last. Switching to Handal and a bit of a flyer but expect a big improvement today regardless.

[moses]

Maryquitecontrary never had a shot. Echo Zulu was very impressive.

[moses]

Arrest Me Red got pretty ideal trip. Maybe a bit wide. Edged out by the 2 horse. Barely held on for 2nd. Paid $3.50 to place.

$80.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Wagered: $72.00
Returned: $79.60

Race 5: #12 Relate - 6/1 - Tough post but like this one second off the layoff finding the right level today.

Race 10: #10 Sharp Play Boy 15/1 - This is a pretty hungry field so went searching for a price. I like to ignore GP races when coming back to NY and this one lost all chance at the start/got no trip at all in the last. Switching to Handal and a bit of a flyer but expect a big improvement today regardless.

Great call!

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Great call!

Yes! Nice one there!

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by moses

Arrest Me Red got pretty ideal trip. Maybe a bit wide. Edged out by the 2 horse. Barely held on for 2nd. Paid $3.50 to place.

$80.00 wagered
$111.00 returned

Got here in pretty different ways but almost even after 10 days:

Wagered: $80.00
Returned: $110.10

^Thanks guys, Luis gave Relate a great ride getting aggressive from the outside post and looked a winner every step. Sharp Play Boy failed to improve and was a bad pick. Tricky card today.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Got here in pretty different ways but almost even after 10 days:

Wagered: $80.00
Returned: $110.10

^Thanks guys, Luis gave Relate a great ride getting aggressive from the outside post and looked a winner every step. Sharp Play Boy failed to improve and was a bad pick. Tricky card today.

Pretty funny that we are at basically the same amount returned. I clearly need to find another 2YO that hits at 20/1.

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 7 - #5 Eyes on Target 7/2 - The chaotic nature of this field is the only reason I'm willing to go ahead and bet on Irad/Maker/Dubb...I tried to make a case for Tartini cutting back but ultimately don't think he's good enough. Similar for the rest of the field and I circled back to thinking not only is Eyes on Target a likely winner, but I think he'll actually be a slight overlay in this field.

Best Value: Race 9 - #4 Pioneering Spirit 4/1 - Simply couldn't come up with anything too clever on the card today and this is another where I think the bulky field will lead to an overlay...I love the progress this one has made of late, ability to settle, he's athletic enough to work out a nice trip and love the way he kicked home last out.

[moses]

Unexpectedly, Miss Carol Ann set the pace but could not hold on, finishing 4th. These turf routes can be hard to predict the pace on.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by moses

Unexpectedly, Miss Carol Ann set the pace but could not hold on, finishing 4th. These turf routes can be hard to predict the pace on.

Yeah I’m so confused as to how your horse was in front and mine was dead last. Makes no sense really

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Yeah I’m so confused as to how your horse was in front and mine was dead last. Makes no sense really

Nope. No sense at all.

[moses]

Going to take a few big swings the next couple days.

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 1 - #9 Love That Bird, 20/1.
Second bet: Race 6 - #7 Asthros, 10/1.

Saturday picks.

First bet: Race 8 - #6 Dean Delivers, 8/1.
Second bet: Race 10 - #3 Hit Show, 6/1.

[jms62]

Irad is going to hurt someone