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Angle: MSW to Grade 2 (dirt)
Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 2 stake (on the dirt) are 21 for 132 (16%) with an ROI of +33%.
Avg Odds: 20.17 Avg Odds winners: 7.37 Avg finish: 4.36 Highest priced winners: Harvey Wallbanger (30-1) Liora (27-1) By My Standards (23-1) Most recent winners: Nadal Venetian Harbor Horses going from MSW to G2 Rachel Alexander/Risen Star today: Impeccable Style (12-1) Farmington Road (8-1) Ready to Roll (20-1) Modernist (8-1)(won at 12-1) Major Fed (10-1) (2nd at 9-1) (Exacta $114) Mr Big News (20-1) Truculent (20-1) Good luck today! Cheers, Otis
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm Last edited by Easy Goer Otis : 02-15-2020 at 06:28 PM. |
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Bill Mott is especially dangerous with this move. Modernist is his 3rd MSW to G2 winner in the past year out of 7 attempts with +$44.20 in profit on $2 win bets.
The other winners: Tacitus (Tampa Bay Derby at 9-1) Lake Avenue (Demoiselle at 4-1) The other four: Country House (2nd in Risen Star at 7-1) Hidden Scroll (4th in FOY at 6/5) Frank's Rockette (2nd in Adirondack at 4/5) Forza di Oro (8th in Remsen at 6-1)
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm |
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Nice insight Otis. Best part about Mott doing it seems to be the price. Baffert often does this and you never get good odds on the horse.
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Thanks, moses.
Baffert is 2 for 11 over this same period. The two winners being short-priced Nadal and Thousand Words. Return on $2 win bets for Baffert horses are negative ($14.00) The only other trainers who have pulled this off more than once since 1/1/2018 are: R. Brisset (2 for 3 with a return of +$32.20) J. Hollendorfer (2 for 2, +$22.40) S. Callaghan (2 for 5, +1.80) Also notable that TAP is 0 for 7. Cheers, Otis
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm |
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Spice is Nice Saturday in the Davona Dale. VERY impressive MSW winner going into a GII
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Other horses making this move at Gulfstream Saturday (with trainer record since 2015): Chart (G. Contessa 0 for 1. Tried Davona Dale with Aspen Hilltop in 2017 and finished 13th) 10-1 Last Candy Tycoon (T. Pletcher) 15-1 2nd The Falcon (Quartarolo 0 for 2 with no ITM finishes. This one still a maiden) 50-1 7th Country Grammer (Chad Brown 1 for 11 and has not hit since with this move since November, 2015 with Lewis Bay in the Demoiselle. Also heard Jay Privman say that Chad could not find an appropriate allowance race for Country Grammer and the ultimate goal is the Wood) 15-1 5th Gear Jockey (G. Arnold 0 for 5) 20-1 8th Spice is Nice is probably the only one with a real shot on Saturday, although Chart is equally unexposed. Good luck! Otis
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm Last edited by Easy Goer Otis : 03-01-2020 at 10:35 AM. |
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Quote:
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#8
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MSW to G1:
Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 1 stake (on the dirt) are 11 for 95 (12%) with an*ROI of -33%. Avg Odds: 21.70 Avg Odds winners: 4.76 Avg finish: 4.38 Highest priced winners: Sippican Harbor (16-1) Mind Control (10-1) Maxfield (6-1) Trainers who have done it more than once: Chad Brown (2 for 6, +$0.80) S. Asmussen (2 for 7, +$2.10) Bob Baffert (2 for 10, -$7.20) MSW to G3: Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 3 stake (on the dirt) are 22 for 161 (14%) with an*ROI of -39%. Avg Odds: 21.60 Avg Odds winners: 3.45 Avg finish: 4.83 Highest priced winners: Cairo Cat (17-1) Independence Hall (10-1) Lombo (9-1) Max Player (5-1) Trainers who have done it more than once: Bob Baffert (3 for 6, $0.00) Mark Casse (2 for 15, -$16.40) While the average odds and average finish are virtually identical across all three Graded Stake levels, only the move to a G2 has been profitable over the past 25 months. Cheers, Otis
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm |
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Otis.. The one question to ask in this is how much are simply extensions of the trainers normal production? After all, there are few (ALW) options any more other than Graded Stakes with 2yo and early season 3yo MSW winners.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans |
#10
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Some trainers are definitely more successful than others making this move. Chad, Baffert, Mott, Romans, Hollendorfer, Cox, Calhoun, McPeek win MSW to GS at 20+% clip. On the flip side, TAP has gone 0 for last 16 and O'Neill 1 for 20. Cheers, O
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm |
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I was hoping for something more promising than a -39% ROI for the Grade 3's. It's a fine line between G2 and G3. While it's possible there's something special about MSW-to-G2 that doesn't apply to MSW-to-G3 or MSW-to-G1, the complete lack of success with those moves makes it seem likely that the MSW-to-G2 result is a temporary aberration. Thanks again for posting it. Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
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Dunbar: I think you are correct that this probably an aberration that will regress downward over time. The MSW to G2 is hitting at a higher percentage and at longer odds for the past couple years.
But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3: MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015: % WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89% ROI: -9% vs -38% Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83 I think the basic takeaway is that you are likely to get higher odds on a maiden winner in a G2 than a G3, yet they have won at a similar percentage for the past five years. Cheers, Otis PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.
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"Good luck had just stung me, so to the race track I did go" - Levon Helm |
#13
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btw, thanks for mentioning the Betmix Angler app. I'm embarrassed to admit that I wasn't aware of it. Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |