Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

...especially opening weekend before you can get a feel for how the new configuration and Polytrack will play and what horses have the advantages:

DO NOT TAKE LESS THAN 5-1 ON ANY HORSE ALL WEEKEND, AND MAKE MOST OF YOUR PLAYS OVER 10-1...

I would bet that this betting pattern proves to be successful if you can find attributes in middle-priced horses or longshots...

EVERY horse is vulnerable on Polytrack....Circular Quay, Happy Ticket, you name the horse....its not worth the short price on these horses just because they may be better on DIRT...

Good luck to everyone this weekend and I hope this theory makes you a lot of money - or at least saves you some from betting too many short-priced favorites

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

Originally Posted by oracle80

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

Well said...I agree deeply...this is EXACTLY why I am NOT a proponent of Polytrack....many top dirt horses won't act on it...

I still can't see how With a City won the Lane's End earlier this year....he couldn't have won on the dirt if they'd have let him cut through the infield....

This surface WILL change racing and in more negative ways than positive IMO....start taking notes

Great advice, Joel. Where do I sign up for your handicapping newsletter?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I'd go so far as to say its unplayable.
The 5 stakes races at Turfway park this past weekend contained qulaity animals with form, yet all 5 were won by longshots with little or next to little rational chance.
I didn't bet a quarter on that card, thank God. I simply cannot play this surface. It has no form, and many horses just refuse to run on it. Horses may like or dislike certain dirt surfaces more than others, but they don't jst refuse to try on them.
Stick to the grass, and to Belmont Park and Santa Anita would be an even better idea.

Well Premium Tap would have won had he not gone up Ball Four's butt on the turn. I played Ball Four though in that race only because he was the only one with Poly form.

[JJP]

My rule of thumb for Kee; avoid any race not run on (real) grass.

Jockey - Leparoux
Trainer - Biancone

Are the obvious favorites going into this meet.

But watch for Amoss, Reinstadler, and Wismer to sneak a few prices in. Especially if the east coast big dogs have a few contenders in the races with them.

[tycharles01]

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Jockey - Leparoux
Trainer - Biancone

See, I actually don't think trainers and jockeys will play a huge factor here...I really don't....I know Biancone trains over it at TP and Leparoux is the leading rider at TP - but that still doesn't mean that their horses will like that surface....

I sincerely believe that pedigree is much more important but it is tricky to really figure out......

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

See, I actually don't think trainers and jockeys will play a huge factor here...I really don't....I know Biancone trains over it at TP and Leparoux is the leading rider at TP - but that still doesn't mean that their horses will like that surface....

I sincerely believe that pedigree is much more important but it is tricky to really figure out......

The surface will be a little different but if it's even close to TP's then it's going to be advantage Team France.

I'm actually hoping the public overbets them and have a good feeling that will be the case. Then comes the fun part of finding who'll beat them with very limited data.

[Pointg5]

Dartboard

or

Ask the girl that looks like she's had the most to drink...

Either way will be fine, but don't put any effort into it...

Sounds like an exotics paradise.
For those 10 centers and just combine away.

If they have them.

Originally Posted by pgardn

Sounds like an exotics paradise.
For those 10 centers and just combine away.

If they have them.

They do. $.50 picker 4's as well.

How people refuse to bet on this is beyond me. I thought this game was about challenges and finding value?

[KonaNative]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

I think it's more about if they ran over poly before than anything. Even horses you ran crap dead last on poly might have an advantage over some nice horse who ran good at the Spa on dirt. The more the meet goes the more you will see the prices drop just due to the fact that people will start realizing it's not about the class of the horse but rather has he/she ran the surface much like a dirt to turf horse

Also start looking over there workouts over the poly. Some horses that ran crap are turning in nice training on the poly

Depends on your definition of Class. It takes a combination of speed and stamina to win on the Poly.

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

[Pedigree Ann]

I'm thinking GOOD works at Kee or TP would be a useful indicator. Especially if their works elsewhere aren't all that much. At least, that found me a 19/1 maiden winner a couple of weekends ago at TP. She looked a logical contender to me - I couldn't believe the price.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

They do. $.50 picker 4's as well.

How people refuse to bet on this is beyond me. I thought this game was about challenges and finding value?

100 % correct I love this new twist especially if I like a Couple of big priced horses. you would be crazy not to bet $.50 tickets And just hit the repeat button as many times as you like.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

I don't buy that! If a horse can run he can run no matter what. Its like tiger woods and michael jordan, any course any court they have an advantage when your better than the rest the cream rises to the top.

Originally Posted by oracle80

They might train over it, but training on a surface and running in a race on it are two different stories.

Another statement I couldn't agree more with....I've talked to many trainers who train over it and have been fooled because their horses don't run on it like they train on it....and some of these trainers are good enough trainers that I trust their opinions when they tell me a horse will run big on the dirt based on how the horse is training on the dirt.....this just goes to show you that Polytrack has evereybody throw off when it comes to conventional wisdom of training horses....

[2MinsToPost]

Like I said to PointG earlier today -

I was hanging around a friend of mines barn earlier this week at Beulah and someone came by with a ziplock bag half filled with the poly stuff from Turfway. I looked and then smelled.

It looks spooky to the eyes and smells bad, literally.