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#81
08-03-2022, 12:10 PM
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#82
08-03-2022, 12:36 PM
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Wednesday, 8/3
Wagered: $112.00 Returned: $109.70 Best Bet - Race 5: 1 Java Buzz 9/5 - On a day I don't really love the card I am wondering if this horse will be all of 9/5 with the love everyone seems to have for the 4...I just think Java Buzz is way the horse to beat in here. Would not be a maiden in my opinion if not for the race riding last out. Always breaks poorly but think can win today in spite of it and if he does break today I think he's going to be a relatively likely winner. I also think the 7 two back was probably stretching it as the debut at this trip was good. Best Value - Race 7: 2 Daddy Knows 6/1 - Will likely have to deal with Bar Fourteen early but I'm hoping Manny gives an aggressive ride and I think can be dangerous in here. Clearly, Tiergan is the one to beat but I don't know that I fully trust this horse at a short price today.
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#84
08-04-2022, 10:47 AM
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Triumphant return was terrible, as was Movie Moxy (but at least I got big odds on her). I guess I shouldn't have switched off of Tiergan who won easily.
After Day 15. Total wagered: $120.00 Total returned: $93.30 Best bet: Race 7 - #8 Hit the Woah 6/1 ML, Clement/I.Ortiz. The first thing I'll note is that I expect a lot of early speed in this one with Spicy Marg, Athwaq, and Mail Order running up front. Of those horses, I think Mail Order has the best chance to win this...but I'm looking at the horses who will be running late. Interestingly, Irad opts to stay aboard Hit the Woah who ran down lesser competition than this in her last start back in February at Gulfstream. I generally don't like betting turf horses from Gulfstream. I'm never quite sure if their performance will translate to a better turf course. But...this one interests me. From the very beginning, I think Clement liked this horse. Once she broke her maiden, he placed her in three consecutive stakes races and she actually ran better on the turf than in her lone dirt stakes race. Back in February, I was impressed with how she made a move once urged by Irad and then really kicked it into gear once he went to the whip. She's talented, she's not outclassed by this group imo, she should get some pace to run at, and she's got one of the best jockeys out there to try to time her move to run them down. Best value: Race 8 - #3 Chess Chief 15/1 ML, Stewart/Gutierrez. This is a bit of a shot in the dark...but Chess Chief was wide throughout in his last race and I'm going to chalk it up to him just needing a race. Following that one, he put in a great workout at Churchill then shipped to Saratoga and has put in two pretty nice works. Prior to his last start, he was facing tougher competition than he'll face here and I'm hoping the time off will have done him some good. Art Collector is obviously much the horse to beat in here...but he's returning from his disappointing performance in the Saudi Cup and I'm not crazy about why he was put on turf for a couple workouts. Masqueparade is another horse who I've always liked but I'm not sure how much better he's gotten from his 3YO year. Instead, I'm going to hope Chess Chief can recapture some of his prior form and surprise them here. Although Reylu has ridden him to 15 length losses in his last 3 races, I do like that Dallas Stewart keeps him aboard as he did notch a nice win against solid competition 4 back in his win in the Tenacious Stakes. These are both big swings in a way...but I feel the favorites are vulnerable in both cases and I'm really not sure how good the logical alternatives (Mystic Night and Masqueparade) are in the Alydar. Last edited by moses : 08-04-2022 at 12:32 PM.
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#85
08-04-2022, 12:29 PM
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Thursday, 8/4
Wagered: $120.00 Returned: $112.60 Java Buzz was hardly my worst pick in terms of the score for the meet but was truly a bad one in any reasonable sense. Took more money than I expected, actually broke, had a perfect trip and was just no match for Sosua Summer who I didn't respect in there at all. Daddy Knows ran awkwardly throughout and was a very distant third. Best Bet - Race 7: 2 Secret Time 6/1 - Perhaps the distance will get her beat but I just really liked the way she finished going super wide at Belmont. Clearly a totally different beast today but I expect a hot pace with Spicy Marg and hoping Flavian has her rolling late. Best Value - Race 9: 8 Forty Under 12/1 - Maybe a bit of a whacky pick but I just wanted to take a shot in this race where I don't really love any of the horses who figure to be single digit odds. Forty Under isn't consistent at all but he can fire a pretty nice one now and again. Kentarmaci has been sneaky, think the track, surface and distance all fit. Taking a shot on a day once again where not a ton jumped off the page at me. Good luck
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#86
08-05-2022, 12:07 PM
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After Day 16. Total wagered: $128.00 Total returned: $93.30 Friday, August 5. Best bet: Race 8- #8 Celestial City 6/1 ML, McGaughey/Castellano. Again, I'm looking extra closely at any Javy horses and this one is consistent and improving. Pace is a question here as Dowagiac Chief scratches out and you've got to wonder who provides pace pressure on the 1 horse. Wow What a Summer? Wit? It's not totally clear. But I fully expect this one to take another step forward here and run a very strong race. Best value: Race 5 - #7 Good Measure 8/1 ML, Motion/Velazquez. I'll start here by acknowledging that I'm very against the likely favorites in this race. Shad Nation will likely go off the favorite and while the horse has run OK on turf, I don't think she has run well enough to justify the price she'll be, especially considering this will be her first bout against older horses and it's at a distance she's never run before. Sure, she's not running in a stakes race this time...but no thanks, I'll let her beat me. The other two horses likely to generate some interest are Rheaume and Hail To. Hail To is also a 3YO (who has faced older but hasn't beaten them) and I'm not particularly impressed with the quality of the horses from her last race. Rheaume was also in that race. I'm looking elsewhere. I've landed on Good Measure who I think ran pretty well on turf WAY BACK in November of last year but has been on dirt since then. Half-sibling to two stakes winners at route distances (one on turf) so I'm not expecting her to have any issues with the distance and I also don't expect her to generate too much interest so she should be a nice price.
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#87
08-05-2022, 01:24 PM
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Strapped for time today --
Best Bet - Race 8: 7 Double Clutch 5/1 - I'm a fan of this horses talent, needs to bounce back a bit today but I think is plenty capable. Best Value - Race 10: 5 Roz 10/1 - A bit of a stretch beating these but best efforts have been sprinting and I think connections maybe were fooled into thinking wants longer in many spots whereas today this elongated sprint will hit right between the eyes. At the least I'd try getting into bottom rungs of verticals. Good luck.
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#88
08-06-2022, 06:40 AM
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Good Measure got up thanks too a great ride by Johnny V. Celestial City ran well but gave in to Wit to give up 2nd place, finishing 3rd.
After Day 17 Total wagered: $136.00 Total returned: $108.90 Best bet: Race 8 - #5 Fluid Situation 8/1 ML, Terranova/Castellano. This one was working well enough to be thrown into the Dwyer last time out…where he just had no shot of ever beating Charge It. He’ll appreciate the cutback in distance as well as the drop in class…and he might even find himself alone on the lead without a horse like Charge It there to press and swallow him up. Best value: Race 4 - #4 Founder 8/1 ML, Mott/Rosario. I’m not quite sure what to make of the barn switch but this horse hasn’t run since October. Last year’s races would have made him competitive here. One of my favorite angles is to bet a 3YO or 4YO in their first start of the year, banking on improvement from the prior year. The price has to be right but 8/1 here is good enough for me.
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#89
08-06-2022, 01:58 PM
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Saturday 8/6
Best Bet - Race 6: 2 Disarm 5/2 - Lost a longer writeup due to a computer issue so briefly - just like the race he comes out of and the way he got going late...like Asmussen second timers here, the work pattern since and guessing the Pletcher/Repole entry will be overbet. Best Value - Race 11: 8 Sy Dog 12/1 - Just felt like he didn't like being inside in the stretch in the last. Wasn't a bad ride at all and overall a good trip but hoping Manny today will get him swung out into the clear today. Might be chasing a horse that I thought was going to have a more forward move after that Transyvania but I'm giving one more shot today at what should be a great price in a field that isn't exactly scaring me away.
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#91
08-07-2022, 01:19 PM
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Best bet - Race 9 6 Our Flash Drive 7/2
Best value - Race 6 1 Empress Isabel 10/1
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#92
08-09-2022, 09:06 AM
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Total wagered: $152.00 Total returned: $115.50 Wednesday, August 10. Best bet: Race 10 - #7 Running Bee 4/1 ML, Brown/Franco. When reviewing this race, I was originally leaning toward Evan Harlan, who I think will be a nice price and is certainly eligible to win this race. But the more I looked at Running Bee, the more I liked him. Last out winner Capensis moved into the allowance ranks in his next start and though disappointed as the favorite, ran well. The third place finisher last out returned to break his maiden. I think there will be some value here as Brown/Irad will get plenty of interest but I prefer this Chad horse...and note that Brown/Franco have been hot since Belmont and have a positive ROI in their last 51 starts together (last 60 days). I think this one may be a little more forwardly placed this time as there isn't much speed in the race, though Saez and Lezcano could try to battle each other. I'm not sure the pace will matter all that much as I think this one is just better than the others in here and with a good ride from Franco, should win. Best value: Race 5 - #4 Be the Boss 15/1 ML, Trombetta/Castellano. I generally do not like to bet 3YOs against older in turf routes. But, I'll make an exception here if the price is right. This one drops in for a tag and should be running up front early. Javy has been riding well lately so I'll trust him to set the pace and try to make them catch him.
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#93
08-10-2022, 11:22 AM
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Best Bet - Race 5 #2 Parquetry 5/1
Thinking Dylan should work out a nice trip in a field that leaves wanting. Has the back class to beat these hoping the drop is just what the doctor ordered. Best Value - Race 9 #6 Battle Scars 8/1 Had the look of a pretty decent one going back to the initial efforts and assuming something went awry. Returns here and hopefully as an improved animal. Going to try to wake the Atras barn up at what should be a square price today
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#95
08-10-2022, 02:44 PM
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Soft morning lines might have something to do with it.
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#97
08-10-2022, 03:29 PM
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It’s a tough job no doubt. Much sharper at Belmont and Aqueduct
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#98
08-11-2022, 12:12 PM
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Be the Boss was overbet and ran poorly. Running Bee was never really in doubt, though only went off at 2/1 returning $10.40 total.
Total wagered: $160.00 Total returned: $125.90 Thursday, August 11. Best bet: Race 9 - #10 Derrynane 5/1 ML, Clement/Rosario. I suspect that Poppyflower and Empress Tigress will be the two horses people look at from the Coronation Cup and both those horses ran well and deserve that interest. But I thought Derrynane just had a really awkward trip. There were multiple spots where she came close to steadying, just didn't seem comfortable for most of the race, then lacked room at the top of the stretch and had to awkwardly move out to get running room. I think breaking from the outside, she'll hopefully not have to deal with any of that. The chart says she made up almost 53 lengths in the stretch and while we know that's wrong, she did put in a strong effort once she got into the clear. Looking for her to run big here at a square price. Best value: Race 10 - #10 Bavarian Creme 8/1 ML, Hennig/Prat. I don't know if this horse is going to go off at 8/1 a few of the horses from that MSW turf race on May 30th have come back to win, including Dream Central who has won two stakes races since then. Plus, Prat is aboard. This one did seem to have another gear that it kicked into in the stretch and I liked the professionalism she showed when asked for more. Not seeing any horse that really stands out in this group, I think she's worth a stab at 8/1.
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#99
08-11-2022, 12:34 PM
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Best bet - Race 4 #3 Ruse 3/1
I just think he’s the best of these and exits a race where he did most of the dirty work and came up short. I expect a much cleaner trip today and think that puts him in the winners circle. Best value - Race 10 #11 Succulent 10/1 I seem to be landing on a lot of Dylan horses of late which is unintentional but no mind to me. With this one I just like the steady improvement since getting on the right surface. Has yet to hit the board but is working toward that and going to be a great price today.
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#100
08-11-2022, 12:47 PM
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I know you didn’t ask but wanted to add because I was strongly considering him…just nervous about the pace scenario. I’m probably going to watch odds on this one. Tough race, though I want no parts of Barrage or Straw into Gold at short prices. I may take a shot on Cotton if he ends up 12/1 or higher.
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