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  #121  
Old 08-28-2022, 09:45 AM
Dahoss Dahoss is offline
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Gross beat with Search Results but great call with Gufo. Hope you made out well there.
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  #122  
Old 08-28-2022, 01:10 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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^Thanks - mixed bag but I did OK, pretty brutal with Search Results though if she held on I have the pick-5 for $6 instead caught it for a buck. Can't complain on a decent day though I guess. My picks have been pretty brutal of late, some nibblers and tough beats but that's about it, updated total below.

Total Wagered: $252.00
Total Returned: $182.90

Best Bet - Race 9 #4 Lady Rocket 6/1
Interesting Ballerina and I think you can make a case for any of them in here, even Travel Column if you want to be that creative, I landed on Lady Rocket ultimately though. While the Go for Wand seems like the aberration on paper, the Madison was a heck of an effort given the pace...no shame in losing at a mile to Search Results and it seemed like they used the Chicago as a confidence booster to point here. I really don't like Bella Sofia in here and I think that most of the stalkers/closers will be content to let those two go up front...think she can shake loose of her turning for home and hopefully gain enough separation from the closers.

Best Value - Race 5 #6 Irwin 6/1
Could've flipped best bet/value but I wanted to use this one today. The way I see this race my biggest concern is if Microphone is just too good and beats a pretty average field. If not I think it really becomes a battle between whether you prefer Shawdyshawdyshawdy or Irwin and I think most will be gravitating to the former as evidenced by the ML...I happen to think Irwin has actually run every bit as well and perhaps better than Sss the last two times they met. He also has more tactical speed and I just think is super logical today and goes out for solid but underrated connections compared to some of the other outfits in here.
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  #123  
Old 08-28-2022, 02:22 PM
afraidofthedark afraidofthedark is offline
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Agree with you on Irwin. Have chips on him on top and 2nd.

UGH....50 and change 1/2 equals no chance
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  #124  
Old 08-28-2022, 04:56 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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^bad day to put your chips on Ricardo Santana - might both have been bad picks but my god wtf was he doing
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  #125  
Old 09-01-2022, 01:28 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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Got tied up yesterday and couldn't post, no time for analysis today:

Best Bet - Race 10 #8 Recognize 8/1
Best Value - Race 7 #7 Our Jessica 12/1
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  #126  
Old 09-02-2022, 01:29 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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Best Bet - Race 9 #1 Wicked Halo 5/1
Best Value - Race 6 #2 Stonewall Star 6/1
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  #127  
Old 09-03-2022, 01:58 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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Best Bet - Race 11 #6 First Captain 4/1
Best Value - Race 7 #9 Meraas 6/1
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  #128  
Old 09-04-2022, 09:01 AM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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I thought Meraas was gone off the turn but they went and got him. First Captain ran just OK but was no match for the top two.

Total Wagered: $276.00
Total Returned: $199.30
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  #129  
Old 09-04-2022, 01:15 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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Best Bet - Race 11 #9 Wonder Wheel 3/1
Didn't exactly love the card today and I guess we will see how the betting plays out but I tend to trust we will get something close to what Aragona posts...it seems like many are lining up to beat her today and I get it, there are several decent options. I almost had convinced myself of every runner in the field at one point but I kept going back to Wonder Wheel...like the recent works, like the versatility already being on display...I think one of the others is going to have to really take a big step forward to beat her today because I think she is ready for a big run/jump up.

Best Value - Race 10 #4 Cape Cod Causeway 5/1
Hoping to get 5/1 or maybe better with McCarthy aboard for Hening...I was on Succulent last time and I think she can win but that was some ride by Dylan and she's going to be such a shorter price today. I think La Victoria will take some money and be an overbet favorite. Cap Cod Causeways last to me was as good or better than any effort of any of these and she'll be a bigger price than some. I also thought he was a bit overly patient in there...think she's ready for another small move forward and that should be enough to graduate in here in my opinion.
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  #130  
Old 09-05-2022, 03:08 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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Wonder Wheel ran alright but wasn't up for making the leap forward I expected and was simply second best as the favorite. Cape Cod Causeway was likely second best and could've been put up for the win, in one sense was unlucky because if not for the late contact she gets by the 3 no doubt in my opinion. On the other hand Succulent was best in there. I don't mind criticizing the stewards and I know plenty did for their decision in there I honestly thought they had to make a really tough call in that one and wouldn't have faulted them for any outcome really. CCC will break her maiden soon though.

Total Wagered: $284.00
Total Returned: $207.90

I had a really whacky opinion I wanted to use if the 9th stayed on the turf that the 3 Grecian Pharoah was live at huge odds. No longer interested on the main track.

Best Bet - Race 11 #3 Bourbon Bash 6/1
Lukas has had some meet and already with a win today. I was on Mo Strike in his last and I'm still really high on the horse but it looks like speed will be deadly with the rain and I really think Bourbon Bash can turn the tables on Chad's runner who will likely take a good deal of money. I loved the easy speed this one showed on debut and think second out just put it together. I'll have a nice day if Bourbon Bash/Mo Strike make up the exacta in either order.

Best Value - Race 12 #7 Fancy Feline 6/1
Not sure what type of price to expect here but think she's best in here and is proven on a sloppy track. Wish I had something more clever being closing day and given that I've clinched not being able to turn a positive ROI - Mashnee Girl in the 10th looks pretty intriguing, you can draw a line through the sprint and she stack up but I have a feeling she's probably not quite good enough and there are others with some upside in there. Fancy Feline on the other hand looks to me like the most likely winner to close out the meet and likely won't go off at such odds.

Good luck closing it out to everyone.
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  #131  
Old 09-05-2022, 03:47 PM
theguarantee theguarantee is offline
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Wanted to mention Race 9 at Kentucky Downs today Skims wheeling back quick for Shug - New Year's Eve clearly the horse to beat and Turnerloose is no slouch...I'm going to try to get a 5,12 ex box home though. Probably will include the 7 a bit but I think Skims could prove to be decent value in there.
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  #132  
Old 09-05-2022, 05:05 PM
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casp0555 casp0555 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theguarantee View Post
Wanted to mention Race 9 at Kentucky Downs today Skims wheeling back quick for Shug - New Year's Eve clearly the horse to beat and Turnerloose is no slouch...I'm going to try to get a 5,12 ex box home though. Probably will include the 7 a bit but I think Skims could prove to be decent value in there.
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