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#62
10-19-2009, 09:30 PM
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The key to the race was the board and the pattern of money played which unfortunately doesn't help with the P4. 5 minutes from the open of play for the 8th race Saturday I looked at the board and saw that my intended play, #7 Star Recruit, was 7-1 while I expected a third of that.
At that point I realized Star Recruit was unlikely to win and I would need to scale back the intended play, but I would continue to watch the board and see if the first lump sums on the #12 Connie and Michael were supported with additional lump sums which did continue right up to post time. The play was to read the board and accept the exacta being advertised by the pattern and the money sustained on the FTS. While I agree there are times FTS take early and excessive money this seemed like far more and I wished I trusted my instincts here a little bit more. 
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#65
10-19-2009, 09:38 PM
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Dumb as can be Bigs' people getting too big for their britches
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#67
10-19-2009, 09:45 PM
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A similar scenario just happened at Remington Park - Race 7 tonight 10/19/09. The 11 horse was 20-1 ML 1st time starter for Milligan was bet down to 4/5 when the betting began and was sent off at 4-1. Cruised by the favorite (#9 Asmussen horse). STEAM
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Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#69
10-19-2009, 10:00 PM
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#70
10-19-2009, 10:37 PM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#71
10-19-2009, 10:37 PM
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In principle, I'm sympathetic with complaints like these, as it seems unfair for horses to get 'put over' with no warning to bettors.
But come on. No one was robbed, stop it. There's a reason people avoid betting multi-race sequences that have a leg with a bunch of firsters if it isn't the first leg. Workouts are, by and large, meaningless. Sometimes you'll see a horse with a dynamite work pattern and bullet works win, but much more often you'll see them stink up the joint. Likewise, while horses with spaced, slow works often lose, they pop up and win a lot as well. You have to know that you're going to be in the dark with first-time starters UNLESS YOU PERSONALLY WATCH THEM WORK OUT. And even then sometimes it's dicey. This is part of the game. Don't play a Pick 4 with a firster-laden leg as the second leg and then complain when one gets put over on you. As for blaming the clocker and the oddsmaker, that's just ridiculous, and you know it. While I agree that more should be done to confirm workout times, Keeneland has actually added clocker comments to their website, which is way more than any other track has done. Sometimes there's going to be a live horse that neither you nor the oddsmaker knows is live until the odds open up. Connie and Michael clearly had a gigantic "BET ME" sign on her when she opened up at even-money. You should have adjusted and started a Pick 3 with her or something. The late Pick 3 still paid $606 for a deuce. It happens. Either stop betting sequences with firsters or take your lumps.
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#72
10-19-2009, 11:14 PM
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Baffert and Headley horses fire bullets all the time before their first start. But that's no indication they are going to run well.
Playing a race filled with nothing but first time starters is like throwing darts
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#73
10-20-2009, 05:52 AM
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The OTB used to be divided into 2 halves, seperated by glass, for smoking and non-smoking. Both sides were always open and were staffed with a couple tellers. This summer, they decided to make the whole building non-smoking. By doing that, it has enabled them to completely shut down one side of the building, except for on Saturdays, so they don't have as many employees to pay. Truth be told, I'm surprised its still open. I have been here 3 years now and in those 3 years, I have maybe met between 5-10 people that actually understand horse racing and know how to read a form. The great majority stand sit there with a pencil and paper just playing numbers.
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#74
10-20-2009, 07:55 PM
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For what it's worth, McPeek said that Connie and Michael is now being pointed towards the BC juvy fillies.
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#75
10-20-2009, 09:55 PM
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I guess this is a testament to my backward handicapping, but instead of dismissing a horse because of 12-1 ML odds. I tend to look for the positives that would make someone bet a horse from 12-1 down to even money. Especially at the first flip of the odds. There are lots of ways to play this game....
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Like a famous coach once said, "There's no "I" in TEAM.....but there is "U" in SUCK."
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#76
10-23-2009, 07:41 AM
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Race was not unnoticed by others, but no suggestion of shenanigans by the author of this article other than to note the "DT Stable effect" (i.e., when 50 owners show up and bet on their horse).
http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/edit...e.cgi?id=16638
__________________
Ticket Seller: All kind of balls... Bodyguard: One of his is crystal.
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#77
10-26-2009, 08:33 PM
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Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#78
10-26-2009, 10:17 PM
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__________________
"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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