2012 Triple Crown Trail: 11 try to deny I'll Have Another

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's Sunday night and my brain is fried from a long week so I can't think right now.

The difference between this and your usual hopeless Derby entrant is the never going two turn thing, which is kind of important. Honestly, I never even thought Trinniberg was on the trail. And I can't remember the last Bay Shore winner being considered for the Derby, but I'm sure it's happened.

But I get your and Travis's point.

Houston set the pace in 89, he was the last to run. Gulch in 87, Zabaleta pressed Groovy into last place in 86, Proud Appeal in 81.
Bold Forbes,Secretariat and Damascus (3rd as the favorite) were the most successful.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i saw that too. but does he really think that with SC out, he'll be alone out front? that completely ignores bodemeisters wire to wire win over SC last out for starters.

i just think it's a shame they're going to take a horse who has never gone 2 turns and let him try it for the first time in the ky derby.

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it.

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Bay Shore was into a very stiff head-wind down the backstretch and no one pressed him.

The vast majority of speed horses with more than a few starts in them will relax nicely if no one wants to be near them early and they get loose.

When you get an environment like the Kentucky Derby, a massive crowd to stir the horses up, and a 20-horse field where riders need to use horses a little early for position ... it's not a good situation for a horse like this. It's not a good situation for the other speed, stalkers, and even mid-pack types who all will naturally use themselves up more than they would otherwise.

In a 9-furlong alw route at Calder -- he'd be rating as relaxed as possible on a loose and unpressured lead.

I'm just looking for reasons to try to justify and that was the most logical one I could come up with was the Bay Shore was relaxed...even with the headwind it was still a half second slower than the Carter first half. For me, them talking Preakness was just as crazy and if you're gonna do the crazy the Derby is only .5 furlongs longer. I just don't think his entry is as big a deal as many are making it out to be. If they're serious they'll try to harness him somewhat and he's just another horse with speed.

[Calzone Lord]

His jockey Chilly Will is the worst gate rider at Presque Isle with a win percentage regularly over 5% ... he's actually a very competent and decent rider other than that.

If Trinniberg gets the Chilly Will special out of the gate and breaks in the air and about two or three lengths slow ... he will be running over the top of horses. That's the worst case scenario.

If they are going to run him -- don't mess around. Just make sure he breaks clean and don't fight him. He will carry his speed a whole lot further on a loose lead and no one in there right mind will go with him. Either way, he's going to finish dead last regardless of tactics. Optimizer will even plug by him before the 1/8th pole.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The Factor didn't enter the Derby last year. Maybe you're thinking of Conveyance from 2 years ago?

No, after The Factor won the 7f San Vicente, Bob Baffert was quoted in the DRF as saying "You won't see him going a mile and an eight anytime soon."

The next day (no exaggeration), Baffert said the colt's next start would be the Sunland Park Derby. He didn't run there, either, but the point was that he went back on what he said previously.

At least this Trinniberg guy waited 2 weeks.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

No, after The Factor won the 7f San Vicente, Bob Baffert was quoted in the DRF as saying "You won't see him going a mile and an eight anytime soon."

The next day (no exaggeration), Baffert said the colt's next start would be the Sunland Park Derby. He didn't run there, either, but the point was that he went back on what he said previously.

At least this Trinniberg guy waited 2 weeks.

Yeah, I do remember that and see what you're sayign now.

I actually think The Factor is way better off in a lot of 8.5f and 9f races than he is in these one-turn races. He folds when he gets pressure...and thrives on a loose lead.

The Factor was awesome in his Rebel win on a loose lead and blew the field away in the final furlong at 8.5f. They tried to rate him back in the Arkansas Derby and he bombed.

Trinniberg hasn't proven it yet -- but he's a true sprinter who won't route no matter the pace. The trainer is wildly better with sprinters than routers -- it's Scott Lake like statistically. Trinniberg has way more raw speed as well.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

Wow. Get back to the Cleveland thread...please.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

What difference does it make where they try it? Would trying a 9 furlong allowance at Calder and failing harm the horse any more than doing it in the Derby? Not that it matters, but has anyone looked at his fractions in the Bay Shore race compared to his earlier efforts?? He was not flying....at all, or even anything remotely close to it. I dont' think he'll do well, but I'll keep an open mind about it. His Bay Shore fractions were dawdling by his standards, it may have been just pure luck and racing in a crappy field. But you know I think they were always thinking Preakness with him, and there may have been some method to the madness and a purpose to his 47.5 opening half in the Bay Shore....yeah the horse can go 44/45, but for a horse heading to routing the Bay Shore seemed to be a step in the right direction. And I really don't think it matters where you start the process. He'll do it or he won't.

i think it makes a lot of difference. if i had a horse that i thought might go for 10f, i wouldn't have him only run up to 7f beforehand, and no further. i wouldn't only have run him in one turn racing with his first around two turns in a field with 19 other horses and him going 3 extra furlongs at the same time. typically you would work towards that with longer racing beforehand, wouldn't you?
if they only planned to go a mile at most, and now, two weeks out, he's going to try for another quarter-well, just how much training would have been needed to put more bottom into a horse that they can't manage now? he's got two weeks to prepare a horse to do a lot more than he's ever been prepared to do. and you're right, it's not so much where-but i certainly feel that 'when' has a lot to do with it.


in your later post, you suggested they would try to harness him somewhat. that would be a bigger mistake than running him in the derby. to try to take him out off his game...this horse will have no chance if they try to mess with his style. i saw where he worked 5f in 1:02, that tells me they're trying to get some speed out of him. huge mistake. it's too late to try to make a 10f silk purse out of what's a sprinting sow's ear. they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Wow. Get back to the Cleveland thread...please.

I don't understand this comment. If you dont' like what I stated explain why....at least Calzone and danzig were able to do that. He ran a slower pace in the Bay Shore than his previous races, yeah, that's really crazy stuff there I said...stating fact. That's insane stuff stating fact like that.

[horseofcourse]

The main thing I don't understand is why it would be ok to route him in the Preakness but not the Derby? I don't care that much they're running him. I guess DaHoss cares a lot.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Danzig

they should stick to the trial, and then try the preakness if they want to attempt to run off with a loose lead and hold on for the finish. but they shouldn't try to take away what natural speed he's got. he won't have enough than to get out front alone early, and he sure won't be there late.

thanks for your long reply--good stuff, but I still dont' understand this part...why would this be any different than what they're doing now?? running in the derby trial then the preakness, it's the exact same thing.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

thanks for your long reply--good stuff, but I still dont' understand this part...why would this be any different than what they're doing now?? running in the derby trial then the preakness, it's the exact same thing.

because the derby trial is a slightly longer trip than what he's run so far. it also gives them more time to get more stamina into him since the preakness is four weeks out, while the derby is only two. also, it's a bit shorter than the derby. instead of having a longer race than what he's run, with more training time, they're bypassing the frying pan altogether and throwing him right into the fire.
for many horses, the derby is their first at 10f, but it's not typically their first time around two turns. of course that has to happen sooner or later, i just think in trinnibergs case it's ill-advised at this point.

and my last part that you quoted-his strong suit is his early speed, it's what the trainer mentioned as to why now he wanted to go in the derby, that he felt t'berg would be alone on the lead. but then he has him work a slow 5f. if the early turn of foot is his strong suit, why would he want to take that one edge away? it's a concern for sure.

[HaloWishingwell]

It was pointed out on another site that I'll Have Another was placed on vets list after his work on April 19th. But no details are listed on the CHRB list

[HaloWishingwell]

http://betfairhollywoodpark.com/racing-workouts

click on the April 19th workout and you'll see he is listed for the vet list

[HaloWishingwell]

http://betfairhollywoodpark.com/horsemen-vets-list

Here though is no explanation....is it a mistake or something else going on?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Liaison IN - Martin Garcia named to ride - Baffert says he just hated SA surface... per Darren Rogers - Churchill Downs Comm Dept tweet

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

http://betfairhollywoodpark.com/racing-workouts

click on the April 19th workout and you'll see he is listed for the vet list

Three asterisks "denotes horse on list". I can't think of any other "list" other than a vet list.

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

http://betfairhollywoodpark.com/horsemen-vets-list

Here though is no explanation....is it a mistake or something else going on?

Not only is there no explaination he is not listed. He is not alone.Of the triple asterisk horses only three from the previous day's workout are on the list. I'm only guessing that the vet list wasn't updated on the 20th.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Liaison IN - Martin Garcia named to ride - Baffert says he just hated SA surface... per Darren Rogers - Churchill Downs Comm Dept tweet

I bet he'll hate CD too.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I bet he'll hate CD too.

I laughed..



It is a little amusing that the decision seemed to be based on his 1.5 mile jog this morning...