Secret Oath

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I wouldn’t run her in the Preakness and definitely not in the Belmont. But not because she’s a filly. I wouldn’t run a colt in either of those races either unless I had won or skipped the Derby. As for later in the year, I’d absolutely be open to trying a race like the Haskell or Travers or Penn Derby. I don’t think there’s anything to lose. If she wins or runs well, it doesn’t hurt her reputation and she can always return to her own division. Pretty much like the Arkansas Derby.

What's the name, grade, purse and distance of the 3yo filly race on Belmont weekend?

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

What's the name, grade, purse and distance of the 3yo filly race on Belmont weekend?

Vic, I think its the Acorn, 1 mile $500K....I think

Originally Posted by casp0555

Vic, I think its the Acorn, 1 mile $500K....I think

Perfect!

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

You guys have my word of honor.

I won't let the trolls get to me anymore.

I'll participate in talking about our great sport.

Or I'll abstain.

I'm guilty of the dysfunction too.

Sorry.

Apology accepted.

Be better.

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Apology accepted.

Be better.

So what do we think about the filly running in the Preakness?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

So what do we think about the filly running in the Preakness?

I’m not playing your games Vic.

OMG is it hard to win a big race or what?

EPICENTER camp must be thinking what in hell do we have to do?

Get that effort and ride from a Derby Favorite and lose to that horse.

He was 80-1 only because of the unsophisticated way races like the Derby are bet.

Longshots get played for no other reason than being longshots.

IMO 800-1 would be more accurate as to his true chances of winning.

And just to add icing to the bad beat cake for EPICENTER, RICH STRIKE never sees the track if ETHERAL ROAD doesn't scratch.

And he "may" have scratched in part because of the 20 hole.

Went back and tried to make a case AFTER he won. Usually one can find reasons for what we overlooked. Still don't see how he did it.

But he did.

I'm thinking this is a pretty cool game we play.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

So fire away with your baseless, unfounded BS and threats.

Since you're in full meltdown mode and will probably disappear for months after this in hopes no one will remember....could you explain my "threats" before you slither away?

Thanks in advance!

SECRET OATH'S run in the Preakness was a mirror image of her race in the Arkansas Derby.

She's VERY good but not the type to beat the best boys of her class.

IMO it was a massive mistake to run back on 2 weeks rest off the big effort of the Oaks.

Some will say, hey take a shot against colts she can always go back to running against fillies. As though these horses are Hot Wheels.

They are perishable commodities with a finite number of chances to shine on the largest stage.

[Dahoss]

I’m holding out on my opinion until I see if Jerry Brown still thinks she’s a generational talent.

[RolloTomasi]

I guess if her running line was a mirror image of the AR Derby, then she probably got another piss poor ride. Nothing like sitting last off a slow pace and making a 5-wide attempt to swoop the entire field with nearly a 1/2 mile to run.

Owner already was quoted as saying the filly was getting time off win, lose, or draw at the Preakness, so it's not like this race in particular will derail her campaign. She's supposed to target the CCA Oaks and Cotillion (owner doesn't think she wants 10 furlongs). Plenty of time to recover from her 4th place, $99K effort in a classic.

At any rate, I like the reproach for those who would treat horses like toy cars, but in the next sentence define horses as "perishable commodities".

Not so much Hot Wheels as Meals on Wheels...

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I guess if her running line was a mirror image of the AR Derby, then she probably got another piss poor ride. Nothing like sitting last off a slow pace and making a 5-wide attempt to swoop the entire field with nearly a 1/2 mile to run.

Owner already was quoted as saying the filly was getting time off win, lose, or draw at the Preakness, so it's not like this race in particular will derail her campaign. She's supposed to target the CCA Oaks and Cotillion (owner doesn't think she wants 10 furlongs). Plenty of time to recover from her 4th place, $99K effort in a classic.

At any rate, I like the reproach for those who would treat horses like toy cars, but in the next sentence define horses as "perishable commodities".

Not so much Hot Wheels as Meals on Wheels...

Not one of Saez's better efforts. It was like he thought, "this worked on Ethereal Road so...."

In his slight defense, she checked back to last when Happy Jack came over on her going into the first turn.

Either way, she's a really nice filly. Maybe even best of her class. But she's not good enough to beat the better males this year and is nothing close to being a generational type talent.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Not one of Saez's better efforts. It was like he thought, "this worked on Ethereal Road so...."

In his slight defense, she checked back to last when Happy Jack came over on her going into the first turn.

Agreed; it wasn't really a mirror image as the filly was shuffled back to last mid-race at Oaklawn rather than in the initial stages like yesterday.

Either way, she's a really nice filly. Maybe even best of her class. But she's not good enough to beat the better males this year and is nothing close to being a generational type talent.

Personally I think her running style of big sweeping (and ultimately unsustainable) moves is a bit of an impediment (similar to many of Abel Tasman's races), but maybe the owner is right regarding her perceived distance limitations.

I wonder how'd she fare if they brought her back off the freshening in the 7-furlong Test instead of the CCA Oaks a couple of weeks earlier.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

SECRET OATH'S run in the Preakness was a mirror image of her race in the Arkansas Derby.

She's VERY good but not the type to beat the best boys of her class.

IMO it was a massive mistake to run back on 2 weeks rest off the big effort of the Oaks.

Some will say, hey take a shot against colts she can always go back to running against fillies. As though these horses are Hot Wheels.

They are perishable commodities with a finite number of chances to shine on the largest stage.

She absolutely can go back to running against fillies and probably could find a weak enough field of males that she can do well against.

The running back on two weeks isn't the issue. Good horses can do that. If I was going to put any thought into an excuse, it would be the total number of races so far this year. But I wouldn't even use that. Good horses can do that too. Hell, even cheap horses can do this. Don't let these new school trainers fool you into thinking that the horses need months off between races. They don't. She just wasn't good enough.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Agreed; it wasn't really a mirror image as the filly was shuffled back to last mid-race at Oaklawn rather than in the initial stages like yesterday.


Personally I think her running style of big sweeping (and ultimately unsustainable) moves is a bit of an impediment (similar to many of Abel Tasman's races), but maybe the owner is right regarding her perceived distance limitations.

I wonder how'd she fare if they brought her back off the freshening in the 7-furlong Test instead of the CCA Oaks a couple of weeks earlier.

I just watched the Oaks again. She made her move into the turn there but it was not as dramatic as the Arkansas Derby or yesterday. Feels like it is all about timing with her. Saez's timing was flawless in the Oaks. Yesterday, not so much.

I'd love to see her in the Test

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I just watched the Oaks again. She made her move into the turn there but it was not as dramatic as the Arkansas Derby or yesterday. Feels like it is all about timing with her. Saez's timing was flawless in the Oaks. Yesterday, not so much.

I'd love to see her in the Test

The big mistake was not running her in the Derby. She has the potential to be a generational talent and with the pace signed on in the Derby, she most likely wins that race by 10 lengths. Running her in the Preakness on 2 weeks rest was a mistake though. You don’t do that with generational talents like her..

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

Running her in the Preakness on 2 weeks rest was a mistake though. You don’t do that with generational talents like her..

100% correct.

Running back on short rest could put the generational talent status achieved in the Grade 3 Honeybee in jeopardy.

Not to mention upsetting her commercial value, running afoul of modern breeding trends, and shattering the delicate egos of wannabe industry leaders in the process...

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

100% correct.

Running back on short rest could put the generational talent status achieved in the Grade 3 Honeybee in jeopardy.

Not to mention upsetting her commercial value, running afoul of modern breeding trends, and shattering the delicate egos of wannabe industry leaders in the process...

"Generational talents after Honeybee" had me laughing very hard

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by freddymo

"Generational talents after Honeybee" had me laughing very hard

I was laughing pretty hard at the last paragraph too

Originally Posted by freddymo

"Generational talents after Honeybee" had me laughing very hard

It wasn't AFTER the Honeybee. It was BEFORE when she won the allowance race.

That's when it's fun to see if you can be right about the speculation of the future.

Just like I was in ZENYATTA'S 2nd race.

Jerry Brown compared her to EIGHT BELLES.

It was me who said generational talent.

Which I think is still in play.

Fillies don't need to beat colts to be considered generational.

Ruffian, Zenyatta, Personal Ensign, Monomoy Girl et al.

Is she as good as those? Probably not.

But is it that big of stretch to win the Cotillion and BC Distaff?

That would put her in line for an Eclipse and G consideration.

The jury is still out.

And Freddy. Who cares what you laugh at?