6/9: Belmont Park (150th Belmont Stakes Day)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Queen of Castle 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 War Canoe 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 La Moneda 3-1 WON ($5.30)
Super Add: #9 Table for Six 8-1 5th


2nd: 7th Easy Goer, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Mask 2-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Rugbyman 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Breaking the Rules 4-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Dark Vader 9-2 3rd


3rd: 50th Ogden Phipps (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Ivy Bell 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Abel Tasman 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Unchained Melody 12-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Pacific Wind 7-2 4th


4th: 87th Acorn (G1), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)

Top 3 can win and there's a real chance Monomoy Girl and Talk Veuve hook up immediately to provide 2nd/break Caldonia Road with a perfect behind-the-duel stalking trip..

Best Value: #5 Caldonia Road 3-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Monomoy Girl 4-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Talk Veuve to Me 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Gio Game 15-1 3rd


5th: 130th Brooklyn (G2), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

War Story has now made $2.5MM and can add another $240k here with anything close to his A-/B+ efforts. Note that Outplay (8-1) is lone speed and needs to be used as a C on outlier chance he stays the 12f unperturbed..

Most Likely: #9 War Story 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Hoppertunity 5-2 WON ($9.10)
Exotics Use: #3 Hard Study 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Take Your Guns 6-1 4th


P5 Grid:

1: 6-8 (A), 1-9 (B), 7 (C)
2: 2 (A), - (B), 3-6-7 (C)
3: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-4-8 (C)
4: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
5: 2-9 (A), 3-4 (B), 6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

2: 2-3 (A), - (B), 4-6-7 (C)
3: 2-6-7 (A), 1-4-8 (B), - (C)
4: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
5: 2-9 (A), 3-4 (B), 6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: 35th Jaipur (G2), 4+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Wild set here with half of the 8 led by pacer/closer pairings from both Clement/Generazio (Pure Sensation/'17 winner Disco Partner) and Miller/Rockingham (Stormy Liberal/Conquest Tsunami). The 2 players beyond that heavy-handed quartet are speed of the speed (?) Pocket Change (10-1) and Pletcher's (where-did-he-come-from?) Blind Ambition (5-1). Longest prices Frisky Magician (30-1) and Holding Gold (12-1) both are far from impossible. Brutal start for P6 players..

Most Likely: #5 Disco Partner 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #3 Pocket Change 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Blind Ambition 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Holding Gold 12-1 4th


7th: 34th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Fascinating cast with usual assortment of turnbacks from Classic scene (Promises Fulfilled, World of Trouble, Strike Power) and credentialed 3/4-7/8-1m types like Kanthaka (3/3 at trip), Engage and Madison's Luna. From inside and outside, 50% of this group wants to be on or near the lead, so it's hard to imagine that stalkers and closers don't make their presence felt. Still Having Fun (15-1) clearly meant for this trip all along after trying routes. Wasn't getting run off winner Mitole at Pimlico, but should be on the scene late at bonus tab with ideal new rider in Rosario..

Best Value: #6 Still Having Fun 15-1 WON ($28.00)
Next Best: #11 World of Trouble 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Engage 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Promises Fulfilled 12-1 3rd

$1 EXACTA (6-3) PAID $63.25
$1 TRIFECTA (6-3-9) PAID $444.00
$1 SUPERFECTA (6-3-9-11) PAID $1,876.50


8th: 25th Just a Game (G1), F&M-4+, 1m-T P4, P3, DD)

Terrific group of 8 and almost any could win with several haven taken turns beating each other. A Raving Beauty is the fresh face and won the Beaugay as she pleased. On Leave can adjust to the pace. Lull dangerous if unattended up front. Proctor's Ledge may prove best at this trip ultimately. Off Limits 3rd/break toting gaudy trip/strip marks..

Most Likely: #7 A Raving Beauty 5-2 WON ($9.30)
Next Best: #3 Off Limits 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 On Leave 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Proctor's Ledge 4-1 2nd

$1 PICK THREE (5/6/7) PAID $218.50


9th: 125th Metropolitan H. (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Entertaining lineup for this and hard to choose which pace player might stay on (Bee Jerset, Ransom the Moon) v. which of the stalking/closing types reach contention on time (Limousine Liberal, Mind Your Biscuits, McCracken, Good Sam, Awesome Slew). And of course you have Bolt d'Oro to decide on who gets away from Justify..

Best Value: #11 Awesome Slew 6-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Bee Jersey 5-1 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Ransom the Moon 10-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Good Samaritan 10-1 7th


New York/Met Mile DBL Will Pays ($2):

1. 59.00
2. 78.50
3. 140.50
4. 115.50
5. 128.00
6. 232.00
7. 892.00
8. 137.50
9. 362.50
10. 64.50
11. 83.50


10th: 146th Manhattan (G1), 4+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Authentic pace parties and the sharper 10f trip give this cast a scrambling look. Mix and match styles and sprinkle liberally with prices. Channel Maker’s Kilroe effort would impact this in a big way. Good value key horse in this context..

Best Value: #9 Channel Maker 20-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Robert Bruce 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Beach Patrol 5-2 13th
Super Add: #13 Spring Quality 12-1 WON ($38.00)


11th: 150th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD)

Have said all that needs be said about a Triple Crown try from what looks like a uniquely talented horse. Logic and history say to bet against and go for the score opportunity and don't blame anyone for taking that approach. Built like Point Given, Justify looks to gallop this group into submission on an oval that suits his style and gifts. Should be an exciting culmination to what has been another compelling and entertaining Classic Season..

Most Likely: #1 Justify 4-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #8 Vino Rossi 8-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Free Drop Billy 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Restoring Hope 30-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Hofburg 9-2 3rd


NYRA Bets P5 Grid:

7: 3-6-11 (A), 4-9-12 (B), 1-7 (C)
8: 3-7 (A), - (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
9: 10-11 (A), 5-8 (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
10: 1-9-10 (A), - (B), 3-11-13 (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x4x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 NYRA BETS LATE PICK 5 (6/7/10/13/1) PAID $5,684.00 (A-A-C-A-A)


P4 Grid:

8: 1-3-7 (A), 4-5-6 (B), 2-8 (C)
9: 5-8-10-11 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-4 (C)
10: 1-9-10 (A), 3-11-13 (B), 2-8 (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x4x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 PICK FOUR (7/10/13/1) PAID $639.25


Gold Cup/Belmont DBL:

GC: 4 (A), 1-6 (B), 5-8 (C)
BS: 1 (A), 2-4-8 (B), 5-7-9 (C)


Gold Cup/Belmont Will Pays ($2):

1. 16.40
2. 277.00
3. 95.50
4. 39.20
5. 395.00
6. 213.00
7. 80.00
8. 52.00
9. 215.00
10. 136.00


12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Battle of Blenheim 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Snap Decision 6-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Monster Bea 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Slim Shadey 5-2 WON ($5.30)


13th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #1 Proven Resources 5-2 5th
Best Value: #11 Hammerin Aamer 15-1 WON ($16.60)
Next Best: #6 Autostrade 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Just Whistle 7-2 DNF


P4 Grid:

10: 1-9-10-13 (A), 2-3-8-11 (B), 4-5-7-8 (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)
12: 3-5-8-9 (A), - (B), 6-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), 6-11 (B), 3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 8x1x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x1x4x1 = $16 ($8 for .50)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (13/1/3,7/11) PAID $857.50


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG’S

[atolunch]

Steve, thanks as always for your insight and efforts and best of luck today!

Please check the 10th, think you want the #13, not 12 in your verticals.

[ontheoutside]

I sir salute you steve my favorite time of day 9 to noon never miss show thank you so much for your efforts and knowledge

[Bogey]

Outstanding work in the Woody Stephens

[MinnSkinny]

Bykster,
Thanks so much for the 7th.
Headed to the IRS window.
Terry

[casp0555]

I'm headed to the 10th floor window.....

[JJP]

Steve, you just nailed the last Pic 3 cold. Nice job. Keep up the good work.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by JJP

Steve, you just nailed the last Pic 3 cold. Nice job. Keep up the good work.

and should be alive to a boxcar P5 to Justify.

[ADJMK]

And not to jinx him but possibly a $70,000 P6 payout ?

[ADJMK]

And to cap it off the final P4 too. Not too shabby a day in Derby Trail land .

[ninetoone]

Still Having Fun - Wow, great call.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by atolunch

Steve, thanks as always for your insight and efforts and best of luck today! Please check the 10th, think you want the #13, not 12 in your verticals.

Larry.. THX. Was important obviously and appreciated the heads up. Hope you had a great BEL day.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

I sir salute you steve my favorite time of day 9 to noon never miss show thank you so much for your efforts and knowledge

Thanks as always.. Your devotion to and appreciation for the show means a lot to me. I view Triple Crown season coverage as the most important 2 months of the year, (5+ months counting the Trail), and this one was special. Saw you did nicely and that's the most rewarding part of the work. Best of luck always..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Outstanding work in the Woody Stephens

THX Gusser! That ignited the day. Hope you had a super BelFest weekend..

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Still Having Fun - Wow, great call.

$20.. Thanks buddy. "Really brought the room together".. Hope you had a great day/weekend.

Originally Posted by MinnSkinny

Bykster, Thanks so much for the 7th. Headed to the IRS window. Terry

Terry.. You're totally welcome. Guessing you took down the Super. Sorry to bog down the afternoon with the W2G paperwork!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by casp0555

I'm headed to the 10th floor window.....

LOL.. Billy..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by JJP

Steve, you just nailed the last Pic 3 cold. Nice job. Keep up the good work.

JJP.. THX. When the rollings start coming in, it's always a good day. Hope you did great!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

and should be alive to a boxcar P5 to Justify.

And was..

Originally Posted by ADJMK

And not to jinx him but possibly a $70,000 P6 payout ?

Didn't play it. I'd have posted a ticket suggestion if I did. Thought it was too difficult and even with Justify singled, would not have hit. After having the turf sprint discussion with Paul Matties, I misjudged the competitiveness of the Jaipur. Figured you needed too many in the Woody & Met too. And given all the opportunities on the day, and how the day went, have no regrets.

Originally Posted by ADJMK

And to cap it off the final P4 too. Not too shabby a day in Derby Trail land .

THX. Particularly enjoy hitting these P4's that bridge the major action on big days and BC Weekend. They're regularly a bonus bump and this one certainly was.

Hope you and everyone had a great 3 days!

[MinnSkinny]

Originally Posted by Kasept

THX Gusser! That ignited the day. Hope you had a super BelFest weekend..



$20.. Thanks buddy. "Really brought the room together".. Hope you had a great day/weekend.



Terry.. You're totally welcome. Guessing you took down the Super. Sorry to bog down the afternoon with the W2G paperwork!

Wow. Just wow, what a day you had! When they remake Let It Ride, you get to be Jake Trotter. Thanks again for all you do!

[Bogey]

Magical day, Steve - Absolutely awesome work