The Belmont Stakes...the double Bunny

[Secretriat34]

how do you defeat Justify..

he almost lost at 9.5f, chasing one bunny..

2 bunnies at 12f...no triple crown for the colt baffert thought would be a 6f sprinter.

should you run both bunnies at one time from the gate..or chain them..

one bunny for 4 f..
.....................then a second bunny for the next 5 f
.................................................. .........then AUDIBLE catches him..and wins in Elmont

[MaTH716]

Yeah, but I personally feel like he doesn't need the lead to win.

He went in Kentucky because the derby is all about track position.

He went in Maryland cause I honestly think that Good Magic is the only horse they thought that could beat them.

If the pace scenario benefits them Mike will go, if they put some rabbits in, I think he will be forwardly placed but not necessarily duesling on the lead.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Yeah, but I personally feel like he doesn't need the lead to win.

He went in Kentucky because the derby is all about track position.

He went in Maryland cause I honestly think that Good Magic is the only horse they thought that could beat them.

If the pace scenario benefits them Mike will go, if they put some rabbits in, I think he will be forwardly placed but not necessarily duesling on the lead.

Looking at the probables for the race so far I can't see how Justify is not in the lead. If his conditioning is there he will wire unless someone comes in with early speed and presses him.

[cal828]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Looking at the probables for the race so far I can't see how Justify is not in the lead. If his conditioning is there he will wire unless someone comes in with early speed and presses him.

I'm shocked that Noble Indy is not among the ones being considered. He seemed to have more early speed than any of these others that Steve listed as probable. Not that I think he could win, but could help the others from the Pletcher barn.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cal828

I'm shocked that Noble Indy is not among the ones being considered. He seemed to have more early speed than any of these others that Steve listed as probable. Not that I think he could win, but could help the others from the Pletcher barn.

WinStar.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

WinStar.

I'm feeling that if Audible and Noble Indy are kept out of the Belmont in order to help Justify's chances, then there ought to be an asterisk next to Justify's TC, should he in fact win it versus the reduced competition.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm feeling that if Audible and Noble Indy are kept out of the Belmont in order to help Justify's chances, then there ought to be an asterisk next to Justify's TC, should he in fact win it versus the reduced competition.

Isn't that offset by the new shooters cheating by not racing in all 3 legs? LOL Geez have a heart, Shirley you are being tongued in cheek?

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm feeling that if Audible and Noble Indy are kept out of the Belmont in order to help Justify's chances, then there ought to be an asterisk next to Justify's TC, should he in fact win it versus the reduced competition.

Why would you want to break your hoss' spirit running in a race you have a slim chance to win against a stone cold runner, when there are races aplenty that you can win and then take your best shot further down the line? Why get beat up if you don't have to ?

[moses]

Originally Posted by cal828

I'm shocked that Noble Indy is not among the ones being considered. He seemed to have more early speed than any of these others that Steve listed as probable. Not that I think he could win, but could help the others from the Pletcher barn.

I just don’t see who the “bunnies” are. If anything, Audible is one. Bravazo, maybe, could push the early pace but I think the Derby and Preakness indicate a different running style from him than we’ve seen in his other races.

Then you’ve got mostly closers after that so unless one of them changes their running style, I see Justify being able to pretty easily control the race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

I just don’t see who the “bunnies” are. If anything, Audible is one. Bravazo, maybe, could push the early pace but I think the Derby and Preakness indicate a different running style from him than we’ve seen in his other races.

Then you’ve got mostly closers after that so unless one of them changes their running style, I see Justify being able to pretty easily control the race.

Not among the listed possibles--which doesn't preclude 11th hour entrants--, but Steve Asmussen has 3 potential entrants with decent early speed that might enhance the chances of his main hope Tenfold, who by the way has a good cross pedigree-wise for the Belmont. He's by Curlin, who has a winner, a place horse, and a show horse in the past 5 Belmonts and is out of a mare by Tapit, who has 3 winners, a place horse and a show horse in the same 5 runnings.

The 3 horses:

1) Reride: 3rd a long way back in Dubai, but a double stakes winner this year while flashing some speed; he's worked twice since returning from overseas; same owner as Tenfold

2) Tap Daddy: campaigned as a turf horse, but he's raced in 2 off-the-turf races and attended the pace in both, just missing in the Bourbon at Keeneland, and romping this weekend at Pimlico in the James Murphy; also chased the ill-fated Mourinho in the Smarty Jones; same owner as Tenfold and same sire as Justify

3) Title Ready: he followed the Ax Man merry-go-round this weekend in the Sir Barton, but prior to that was the pacesetter in the Rebel (which featured another Asmussen colt in Combatant); owned by Charles Fipke who is not shy about starting long shots in the Classics...at least the one's trained by Dallas Stewart...

[Alabama Stakes]

Justify got dueled the whole way and still shaded 30 seconds for the last 5/16 of a mile. That is tough to do for a closer, let alone a hoss on the lead.
They are all running for second money. Justify will be all alone at end of the Belmont . He is a cinch.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Justify got dueled the whole way and still shaded 30 seconds for the last 5/16 of a mile. That is tough to do for a closer, let alone a hoss on the lead.
They are all running for second money. Justify will be all alone at end of the Belmont . He is a cinch.

I don't know what the 7 furlong split was, but Justify took about 44 2/5 seconds to complete the final 7/16s (average 6.35 s per sixteenth) and 19 4/5 seconds to complete the final 3/16s (average 6.6 s per sixteenth).

In order to shade 30 seconds for the final 5/16s, he would have had to put up a internal furlong of 10 and change (average 5 s per sixteenth) in between that gradual deceleration. That would be one magic loogie...I mean...racehorse.

I don't even think the 2yos breezing at the nearby Timonium sale were going that fast...

[Alabama Stakes]

Too much platinum kush before posting. I knew that looked too good to be true

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm feeling that if Audible and Noble Indy are kept out of the Belmont in order to help Justify's chances, then there ought to be an asterisk next to Justify's TC, should he in fact win it versus the reduced competition.

Should there an asterisk next to Secretariat’s Belmont as only 4 horses showed up to challenge him?

[Rverge]

this is from another Horse Racing Forum. the fellow is a very good 'capper and poster.

The Belmont will be Justified 4th race in 70 days going into it. He’ll be meeting fresh horse ready to ambush him, has to prove a new distance also. NY isn’t going to allow him anything easy during the running either. He has to train good to get the new longer distance and can’t afford any setbacks. I believe the schedule catches up with him in the Belmont and that’s where the Apollo Curse is really going to catch up with him. Hey if he wins it I’ll give him his just dues, but I’m not seeing it.

Horses with 4 races within 70 days did very poorly.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by pointman

Should there an asterisk next to Secretariat’s Belmont as only 4 horses showed up to challenge him?

No. The owner of Secretariat did not keep any of her other horses out of the Belmont so that Secretariat would have a better chance to win.

http://www.drf.com/news/common-owner...belmont-stakes

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by pointman

Should there an asterisk next to Secretariat’s Belmont as only 4 horses showed up to challenge him?

well said Nick!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

No. The owner of Secretariat did not keep any of her other horses out of the Belmont so that Secretariat would have a better chance to win.

http://www.drf.com/news/common-owner...belmont-stakes

We'll hear this mantra the next two & half weeks ...... if he's good enough to get the distance & "Big Sandy", he'll WIN!

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Rverge

this is from another Horse Racing Forum. the fellow is a very good 'capper and poster.

The Belmont will be Justified 4th race in 70 days going into it. He’ll be meeting fresh horse ready to ambush him, has to prove a new distance also. NY isn’t going to allow him anything easy during the running either. He has to train good to get the new longer distance and can’t afford any setbacks. I believe the schedule catches up with him in the Belmont and that’s where the Apollo Curse is really going to catch up with him. Hey if he wins it I’ll give him his just dues, but I’m not seeing it.

Horses with 4 races within 70 days did very poorly.

Not to pick but don't most triple crown contenders run 4 races in less then 70 days. American Pharoah ran 4 within 60 days and 5 within 85. That's what makes it special and very challenging.

[Rverge]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Not to pick but don't most triple crown contenders run 4 races in less then 70 days. American Pharoah ran 4 within 60 days and 5 within 85. That's what makes it special and very challenging.

i agree in part, but does one think JUSTIFY is like or better then AMERICAN PHAROAH?