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Old 06-16-2018, 07:10 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Default 6/16: Churchill Downs (5th-9th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 21st Matt Winn (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Justify parades about 90 minutes before Ax Man parades here. As mentioned on Wknd Prvw ATR, Home Base (10-1) may be emerging and should be more prepared for the stretch out now..

Most Likely: #7 Ax Man 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Home Base 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Combatant 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Funny Duck 5-1 4th


6th: 29th Wise Dan (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

As discussed before the Dixie was scuttled on Preakness Day, World Approval's no show in the Kilroe was particularly alarming, but the extra 3 weeks may a plus for the Live Oak home bred by versatile Lonhro who has worked sharp and runs well fresh. Divisidero an obvious player. 4yo debut of Parlor (10-1) was terrific for streaking Kenneally (28/13 at meet for 46%) and remember that he knocked on the door of good horses as a 3yo. Mr Cub (10-1) should keep Shining Copper SCR'D company up front and will be the target for late runners. Mr. Misunderstood is dirtied up having improved as a 4yo with very little to show for it in Grade I, II and III tries..

POST SCR NOTE: With Shining Copper coming out, elevating Mr Cub who is now controlling speed..

Best Value: #6 Mr Cub 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 World Approval 6-5 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Parlor 10-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Divisidero 3-1 4th


7th: 43rd Fleur de Lis H. (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

2nd/3rd choices Blue Prize & Valadorna feel like the top players ahead of ML fave Farrell who will face plenty of pace pressure from her inside. Awestruck (from Rusty Arnold & Watts Humphrey) is a distaff version of Parlor having lurched forward as a 4yo..

Most Likely: #3 Blue Prize 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #6 Awestruck 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Valadorna 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Song of Spring 6-1 5th


8th: 38th Stephen Foster H. (G1), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Clearly a repeat of the Alysheba makes Backyard Heaven a winner here, but there is pace to his outside in need-the-lead Irish War Cry and inside from Uncle Mojo. Patch's return was -- wait for it -- eye-opening and Hawaakom has pace to chase. Pavel may have found a clever spot. Honorable Duty will save ground in an up-close stalking trip. Lookin At Lee showed a new dimension in Derby Day ALW win. Matrooh, a three-quarter to Funny Cide, came alive in the Hanshin when trying the poly..

Best Value: #2 Patch 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Backyard Heaven 6-5 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Pavel 5-1 WON ($15.60)
Super Add: #7 Lookin At Lee 12-1 8th


9th: 49th Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Crazily competitive group for $100k. I count 8 with a chance to win..

Most Likely: #8 Beyond Blame 6-1 WON ($9.00)
Best Value: #6 Cash Out 12-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Stave 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 She's Pretty Lucky 10-1 10th


P5 Grid:

5: 7 (A), 2 (B), 3-4-5-6 (C)
6: 4-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-5-9 (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 7-9 (B), 3-4-8 (C)
9: 6-8 (A), - (B), 1-3-7-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

6: 4-6 (A), 1-8 (B), 3-5-7 (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), 2-5-9 (C)
8: 2-6 (A), 7-9 (B), 3-4-8 (C)
9: 6-8-13 (A), - (B), 1-3-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve
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Last edited by Kasept : 06-16-2018 at 09:35 PM.
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Old 06-16-2018, 09:56 AM
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atolunch atolunch is online now
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Thanks as always and good luck today Steve.

Little late, but thanks for the Monster Belmont Day as well. Was out in Vegas, and your insights made for a successful trip and even made up for the thrashing endured at the uncooperative Craps tables.

Hard to believe the Spa is right around the corner, can't wait. Hopefully I can buy you a cold one!
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:18 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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CD SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 06-16-2018, 11:29 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atolunch View Post
Thanks as always and good luck today Steve.

Little late, but thanks for the Monster Belmont Day as well. Was out in Vegas, and your insights made for a successful trip and even made up for the thrashing endured at the uncooperative Craps tables.

Hard to believe the Spa is right around the corner, can't wait. Hopefully I can buy you a cold one!
Larry.. Thank you and you're quite welcome. Always happy when you, and everyone, do well. Looking forward to seeing you and Team Popyak at SAR!
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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