Two at Toga

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Got caught up with work the last couple days.

Best Bet Race 7 #8 Thin White Duke - Think the 6.5 should be perfect.

Best Value Race 10 #6 Playtone - Last was so bad but I have to give one more chance. Interesting on the stretch out with Joel but admittedly just a stab/chase.

I was going to do a little write up on Churchill but honestly the card seems perfectly straight forward to me. Don’t plan on getting too involved until tomorrow. Will try to post some thoughts in the morning.

Good luck everyone.

Good call on Thin White Duke

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $92.00
Returned: $121.40

Best Bet: Race 9 #7 Mystic Guide - Hoping Dr. Post gets overbet as I think Mystic Guide is the most likely winner in here.

Best Value: Race 10 #4 Secondary Market - Needs to move forward obviously but I think she has it in her.

I plan on posting some Churchill thoughts at some point here if I get the time.

Good luck everyone on a strange but still exciting Derby+Toga day.

[theguarantee]

Churchill Thoughts:

Race 8 is basically where I'm starting besides some action plays.
Nothing clever here but I'll put 100% of my plays through Smooth Like Straight and try to beat Field Pass for second mainly with the other Maker.

Race 9 I'm a little interested in Tap It To Win with Casse heating up but depends on price.

Race 10 Therideofalifetime looks pretty tough in here...I'm a little uncertain on the jockey assignments but I thought Midnight Bourbon was the one with the upside. Mare has thrown some nice ones and I think you can toss the debut. Right to improve.

Race 11 I too, for better or worse, was looking to beat Newspaperofrecord...I'm back to the drawing board and unsure what to do now.

Race 12 I'm very disappointed to see Mia Mischief scratch as I thought she could take some of the starch out of SE...Sally's Curlin was the horse I was most excited to bet on the card. I'll keep the faith since SE is a runoff and while I do think CeCe will run well today I'm leaning toward Bellafina as my main other. She appears to be hanging but I think today could be her day.

Race 13 I'm hoping to get True Valour up here...many trips mainly of his own doing...think the talent is there and maybe the barn switch to Motion was just what the doctor ordered.

Race 14 For better or worse I'm going to pitch the Bafferts...think Honor AP is the most likely upsetter and while he's probably overbet I do think Max Player has a chance if things get weird up front. I'll try to get one or both of Major Fed and Attachment Rate to hit the board.

Just some thoughts and ideas, good luck everyone.

[moses]

Mystic Guide pulled through for me and paid $10.70 total for win and place. Officiating completely disappointed. That leaves me down a little over $4.00 with two days left in the meet. Maybe I can end up on a high note.

Best bets: $72.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $72.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $144.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

Sunday, September 6.

Best bet: Race 8 - #2 Thomas Shelby (6/1 ML). At first glance, this horse may look outclassed but if you look back a few races, there are plenty of allowance races and even a stakes race. If we take a look at his most recent start, the final time is very close to what Irish Front ran back in July on that same date. Irish Front's fractions are a bit faster but Thomas Shelby's competition here is a lower tier. Irish Front came back to lose by a neck to Night Time on August 28. The absolutely blazing workout tab has me thinking that he is an improving 4 year old. He draws the mount from Irad and I've got to think he's ready to roll.

Longshot: Race 11 - #7 Readyforprimetime (6/1 ML). I normally don't like horses in turf sprints off of a long layoff so to see Readforprimetime run so well last time out was pretty impressive. He now takes a step up in class and takes on two ex-Servis horses in Shekky Shebaz and Fig Jelly. Whatever the reason, I believe both those horses have lost a step and while they may have a major class edge, along with Gidu and Pulsate, over Readyforprimetime, this one might just be ready to take the next step up into stakes company and this could be the perfect spot for him to jump out to the lead and make them try to catch him.

[theguarantee]

^Big chance for you to get above break even Moses...I was going to select Readyforprimetime myself but I'll pivot for the sake of some originality...saw exactly what you did though.

Wagered: $100.00
Returned: $132.10

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Lady Lilly - Obviously looks too slow on paper but I think the horse was actually short and won on class alone on debut. Clearly talented and worked OK with Sonneman coming out of the debut...I could be wrong but I feel Steve was targeting this all along for her and expecting a big step up today (which she'll need to take)...perhaps that figure is a bit low with Spun d'Tat subsequent start. Beautiful Memories may well just be too good for these but I want to make her prove it as that debut appears to have been against a really bad group...don't want to knock it too much since she dusted them and earned a nice fig...but that was 5F, she was pulled up subsequently and seems a bit of a headcase even watching works. Esplanade looks OK but those overnight stakes are glorified maiden races. Guana Cay is interesting but I still think may end up best on turf. Small field but one I think will be interesting to watch.

Best Value:Race 7 #1 Portofina - Showed speed against a pretty loaded field in Keeneland two back...totally collapsed late to be fair but maybe a better effort than it appears. I didn't love the ride Kendrick gave her in the last. Made a wild middle move that never works and I thought did enough running to give one more shot at a big price. The inside draw should help and hoping Reylu plays catch me if you can. Ultimately Chocolate Cookie, who can certainly win, ran no better than her last out and drew the 10 while she moves inside...low profile connections for Protofina ensures we should get a nice price.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Big chance for you to get above break even Moses...I was going to select Readyforprimetime myself but I'll pivot for the sake of some originality...saw exactly what you did though.

Wagered: $100.00
Returned: $132.10

Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Lady Lilly - Obviously looks too slow on paper but I think the horse was actually short and won on class alone on debut. Clearly talented and worked OK with Sonneman coming out of the debut...I could be wrong but I feel Steve was targeting this all along for her and expecting a big step up today (which she'll need to take)...perhaps that figure is a bit low with Spun d'Tat subsequent start. Beautiful Memories may well just be too good for these but I want to make her prove it as that debut appears to have been against a really bad group...don't want to knock it too much since she dusted them and earned a nice fig...but that was 5F, she was pulled up subsequently and seems a bit of a headcase even watching works. Esplanade looks OK but those overnight stakes are glorified maiden races. Guana Cay is interesting but I still think may end up best on turf. Small field but one I think will be interesting to watch.

Best Value:Race 7 #1 Portofina - Showed speed against a pretty loaded field in Keeneland two back...totally collapsed late to be fair but maybe a better effort than it appears. I didn't love the ride Kendrick gave her in the last. Made a wild middle move that never works and I thought did enough running to give one more shot at a big price. The inside draw should help and hoping Reylu plays catch me if you can. Ultimately Chocolate Cookie, who can certainly win, ran no better than her last out and drew the 10 while she moves inside...low profile connections for Protofina ensures we should get a nice price.

Good luck.

Thanks. Good luck.

Agreed that Beautiful Memories may just be the best here but I like Lady Lilly as well. I didn’t look super closely at Race 7. I kinda liked your horse and the #3 Sweet Sneak as longshots but decided to avoid maiden races the next couple days.

[moses]

Well, Thomas Shelby was outmatched and Readyforprimetime just missed 2nd by a nose.

Best bets: $76.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $76.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $152.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

Monday, September 7

Best bet: Race 14 - #2 Stare Decisis (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #7 Dudley Square (12/1 ML).

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, Thomas Shelby was outmatched and Readyforprimetime just missed 2nd by a nose.

Best bets: $76.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $76.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $152.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

Monday, September 7

Best bet: Race 14 - #2 Stare Decisis (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #7 Dudley Square (12/1 ML).

Fun fact, the loonies in Boston just changed the name of Dudley Square to Nubian Square this year. Don’t get off at a Dudley is no longer a saying.

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $108.00
Returned: $132.10

Lady Lilly had every chance but didn't take enough of the necessary move forward. Portofina ran an OK 4th at 23/1 and I thought Reylu cost the horse what should've been a third, no matter for this exercise anyway though.

Best Bet: Race 8 #2 Largent - I could be wrong especially being lone speed but I'm guessing Breaking the Rules and one or both of the Chad horses will take enough money to get every bit of the ML, hopefully more. While this one hasn't matched some of the top efforts from a few in here I think today could be the day. Shug obviously seems to have BTR in raging form but we'll see if he can repeat. In the end I love Largent's cruising speed and ability to accelerate into another gear in the lane when asked. Being lone speed I fully trust Luis to nurse along and time his move perfectly today.

Best Value: Race 11 #4 Bail Out - May well go down as my worst pick ever and right on the heels of being critical about a Reylu turf ride I'll give him another shot here for a trainer who is 0/39 this year entering a maiden in an allowance...with that said Mystery Bank will be one of the top betting choices in here I would think and I kept looking through this field and I just don't see much to latch onto. This horse fits on Beyers, took much the worst of it trip wise from Mystery Bank last out (was begging for running room throughout, took a brutal bump mid-race, got boxed up when Reylu waited too long to make his move and while it did open up for him in the stretch it was too late and still never got fully in the clear).

Good luck to everyone on closing day.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, Thomas Shelby was outmatched and Readyforprimetime just missed 2nd by a nose.

Best bets: $76.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $76.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $152.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

Monday, September 7

Best bet: Race 14 - #2 Stare Decisis (7/2 ML).
Longshot: Race 10 - #7 Dudley Square (12/1 ML).

Dudley Square ran a respectable but distant 3rd. Stare Decisis was a terrible “best bet.”

Final results:

Best bets: $80.00 wagered. $41.00 returned.
Longshots: $80.00 wagered. $98.70 returned.
Total: $160.00 wagered. $139.70 returned.

All in all, not that disappointed in the results. There were a few days where I missed out on some decent winners. I’d definitely do things differently next time. Thanks to Dahoss for the idea. Still have a lot to learn.