#1
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Tenfold
Every time I look at Tenfold, I like him more and more for the Belmont. Can somebody tell me I’m crazy or missing something?
He runs well in the slop and on a dry surface. He seems to get better with every race. He finished 3rd in the Preakness but I thought his performance was at least better than Bravazo who edged him out to get 2nd. And the pedigree - Curlin on one side and Tapit as the damsire. Am I looking too much into the pedigree or are we all going to be looking back at Tenfold and saying, “Yeah, that makes sense. His pedigree is phenomenal for the distance.” |
#2
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I don't think you are crazy, I really like him and Hofburg. I maybe the crazy one as I really think Justify won't hit the board.
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#3
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Pb72vett winner
Thats called living a dream.
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#4
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EXACTA - ly what I'm looking for!
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Support your local Re-run or horse rescue organization. https://www.rerunottb.com/:) |
#5
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My exacta wagers will make up the bulk of my bets. If we can get Justify out of the top 2, there should be some pretty good value there. I’m hesitant to exclude Justify from my trifecta wagers though. Could this be a California Chrome situation? Sure. That’s what I’m hoping for. But I think he’s too good to completely exclude.
I’m hoping to see Tenfold at 15-1 or higher. He’s 12-1 in the morning line but I think that could go up a little. I expect Gronkowski to get much more money put on him than he deserves, so hopefully that’ll inflate some of the odds for the choices in the middle of the pack. |
#6
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Haha, maybe. I just can’t bring myself to bet on Justify, not with him almost getting caught in the Preakness. I thought he would win a lot more convincingly there. Had him keyed on top in my trifecta and superfecta. I expected him to win by a couple lengths. Three horses within 1 of him and a fourth horse 1 back made him look very beatable, especially at 12 furlongs.
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#7
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^
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#8
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You might be a little optimistic about Justify running away with it. Besides at 3-5 or so there isn't much value there. I really believe Hofburg and Tenfold will give him all he can handle.
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#9
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It’s possible. He’s a great horse. But plenty of great horses have struggled in the Belmont. Is he the same horse he was at Santa Anita or Churchill? He didn’t look it in the Preakness, though still besting the field. But I wonder — if Bravazo had somehow managed to edge Justify out at Pimlico, would Justify even be running tomorrow? And would he be a below-even-money favorite? I guess we’ll never know but it’s amazing how much half a length can change our view on things.
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#10
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#11
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The perfect day for me would be Tenfold then Vino Rosso then Blended Citizen. That seems extremely unlikely but that’s probably the biggest payout for me. I’ll be happy if Tenfold wins it.
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#12
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I guess I'm in the middle, too. I think Justify is by far the most likely winner of the Belmont, but at the same time, I think it's more likely he doesn't win than does win. So if he indeed goes off at 1-1 or lower, which seems likely, I'll be looking to bet some other horses to win.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#13
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#14
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I won't know until I make a line, and laziness is keeping me from doing that until I'm confident that Justify will be no higher that 1-1. I do hope I'll be able to rationalize bets on Hofburg, Bravazo and/or Tenfold, though. If I could bet on every other horse in the race in amounts that would net me 1-1 no matter which one won, I would. But that's not going to happen.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#15
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#16
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I doubt that there will be a big rush of money on Justify. Justify's odds have been creeping up all day at PinnacleSports, and now stand at 1.10-1. (And if you want to bet that Justify doesn't win, you have to put up 125 to win 100, up from 116 earlier.) It looks like I'll be a spectator on this one.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#17
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One note on Tenfold, but it looks like he got stuck between two horses converging early, got pinched a bit, and had to awkwardly pull out and duck inside. Granted, I think that had little impact on the results and I’m not sure if the horses even touched. Maybe talking about him 3rd or 4th instead of 5th, if he improved at all which is debatable. Still, probably a bad move by the jockey to try to out sprint Noble Indy and Restoring Hope. |
#18
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Not betting against Justify saved me some money, but it doesn't necessarily mean it was 'wise'.
If fact, my thinking/posting was somewhat fuzzy. I wanted to bet against Justify if there was, IMO, too much money bet on him. I was writing "1-1" odds as my threshold for 'too much money'. I should have been using '50% of the win pool' as my threshold. And 50% of the win pool equates to 3-5 odds. My original gut feeling was that Justify had something like a 33%-40% chance to win. But when I made a line, I came up with a 45% chance to win. Granted, I gave Justify every benefit of doubt, since I was primarily interested in betting against him. With Justify taking just 45% of the actual win pool, right in line with my own estimate, none of the other horses' odds looked attractive. Tenfold was the closest. I had him at 12-1, and he went off at 10.70-1.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#19
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#20
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I'm grateful that you took the time to read it and set me straight.
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |