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#121
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![]() #1 fan I thought I was?
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#122
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#123
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Good start, though you left out one of my favorites.... " Lemons needs a new jockey with better timing. " |
#124
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#125
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Or an alarm clock. Here's my favorite thought process.... I love this horse He/she won The speed figure came back relatively slow The speed figure maker is an idiot |
#126
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![]() Page 7 is off to a fantastic start!
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#127
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![]() As most know, speed figures can be subjective. There is nothing you can do about it, and you have to make some judgement calls. Of course EVERY figure maker will get some wrong.
That said, I'd like to be the first to congratulate Beyer for nailing the Ancient Title figure that was later proven by Thor's Echo winning the Sprint and the DeFrancis. What a figure that was! P.S. Damn you guys with the page numbers, now I have to switch my settings to show oldest first so I can keep up! |
#128
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What exactly is the statute of limitations on the Summit of Speed from 2003? And, by the way, didn't the horse that won the Vanderbilt, Private Horde I believe, compete against Shake You Down on that day? I guess his figure should have been.....faster? And, didn't Valid Video have a perfect rail trip, on a gold rail, just off blistering fractions when he got lucky to win the King's Bishop? Funny what people choose to remember. I guess one wrong split variant makes the whole concept dangerous. Also funny to hear about this from anyone that uses the Thorographs....where they split the variant constantly ( not to say they are wrong ). |
#129
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![]() I also nominate the following as a Page 6 gem....
* Jazil. This is a race horse. Solid fractions in the Belmont and solid final time. Would have beaten all of the previous Belmont winners in this decade including Afleet Alex. Yes, the fractions were solid. And the horses racing 1-2-3-4 though the early stages ended up finishing like 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th. While Jazil, who was dead last through the early stages...was the one being aided by the "solid fractions." Yes, the final time was OK, because the race track was VERY fast. An N1X allowance race earlier on in the card was run in supersonic time! However, what really takes the cake is the "Jazil would beat every Belmont winner this decade" comment. Forget about Afleet Alex, Point Given would have absolutely DESTROYED Jazil. Point Given was awesome in victory in the Belmont Stakes |
#130
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![]() Point Given would have crushed him....as would have Empire Maker.
I'm just pissed because I bet Tasteyville in that maiden race and he blew a four length lead in midstretch. Of course, his future resume of success has certainly flattered the mighty Jazil. |
#131
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TG splits the variant much more than anyone else. Split variants are actually pretty easy. The tough ones are when you have a race in the middle that doesn't fit with the others on both sides. Neither Beyer nor TG use pace, and sometimes that is the reason for these split variants. The problem with that is the extreme pace, whether fast or slow, doesn't affect all horses the same. This is all for another thread someday though, I want to hear more about Lemons Forever being Personal Ensign reborn. As for the Belmont, Jazil might not have passed Funny Cide. |
#132
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Funny Cide would have drowned Jazil. Personal Ensign shudders in the wake of Lemons Forever. In order to be at all pace based, as you know, they have to make pace figures which neither do. At least Beyer is trying to do something with turf figs based on pace but I'm somewhat dubious. Of course I'm dubious of turf figs in general. And then there's Ragozin....who thinks pace is irrelevent. I want to reiterate.....Funny Cide would have drowned Jazil. |
#133
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![]() I don't post much here (yet?), but +1 to everything on Page 7 so far and -1 to just about everything on Page 6!
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Farewell to Kings - My horse racing blog which provides fresh insight and commentary on horse racing and handicapping. Last edited by Bravado2112 : 12-20-2006 at 12:38 AM. |
#134
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![]() Man, these Bernardinians are everywhere . . . like vermin.
Funny Cide? Isn't he pulling a yellow school bus full of tourists in NYC? Point Given? Must have been quite a split variant that day in Kentucky . . at least on the part of the track he ran on . . . slowed to quicksand right before your eyes. Put on your white robe, drool on yourself, and let Andy Beyer be your David Koresh. The purple Kool-Aid isn't too far behind. Last edited by todko : 12-20-2006 at 12:29 AM. |
#135
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![]() Never let facts get in the way of a good argument. We were talking the Belmont, not the Derby, so what does PG's flop at CD have to do with anything? His Belmont was TONS better than that of Jazil.
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#136
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#137
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About the only time I could think of using pars would be lightly raced horses or first time starters, things like that. Even then, you try to avoid those races if at all possible as part of making the variant. |
#138
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#139
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![]() What is incorrect is that you need to build in some kind of variant to get any kind of useful pars. Horses are more consistent than track conditions. If you look at the history of horses that run well in a race, the pace and final time, as well as the pace and final times of other races on the card, you are going to come up with much better numbers than you will using pars.
Quick question...what figure did you give Invasor's BC Classic, and what figure did you give Magna Graduate a few weeks ago on the inner dirt? |
#140
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Magna Graduate: A 118 (about a 103 Beyer). Obviously the BC day CD race was a throwout for comparison purposes but his one other race I have in the database was a 119 (the Discovery.)
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |