Thank You Mine That Bird - Page 7

Sightseek · #**121** 05-03-2009, 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by docicu3

Watching Calvin's interview again and thinking about what he meant reveals a few possible reasons for his gelding's success.

1) The track took the heart out of almost all of them over 10F's except his horse whom he saved til the last quarter as he was so far back after the initial half he was out of the picture but his horse hadn't started the race yet. Classic tortise and hare stuff....

2) The time, though slow, is irrelevant as this Derby was won by racing strategy not speed but stamina over a last 1/4 while MTB must have run ridiculous time for the 1/4, 1/2 and 6f's splits showing how occasionally over rated ES is on tiring tracks and poly quick sand.

3) "Fatigue makes cowards of us all" doesn't just apply to football player's

4) Calvin was right on the money when he said his was the only one running at he end......an obvious strategy the "slow minded" southern connections used to the detriment of faster smarter more expensive colts in the race.

"Intelligence is taking the same information available to everyone else and doing something different with it than most to achieve an outcome nobody else could attain"......

Photo of Mine That Bird on the turn:

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/gallery;...th_kentuck%3A1

basement bob · #**122** 05-03-2009, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Anyone that mentions a bias as the reason this horse won should never be allowed to watch a race again. Any bias there may have been only added to his margin of victory. He would have won that race had he gone around the grandstand. He was much the best today.

i could not agree more. well said.

basement bob · #**123** 05-03-2009, 08:23 AM

i can't wait to hear what john white has to say?

JJP · #**124** 05-03-2009, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

A bigger mystery is how he went off at only 50-1, as if we had enough of derby myths, no dirt wins, gelding, 81 beyer top, no name trainer(never heard of the guy until today), obviously someone bet him, should have been 100-1.

Would have thrown in the 2 prep rule but that has long been debunked.

I agree. He was 99-1 at William Hill in the U.K. But lets not forget the makeup of the crowd on Derby Day; many of whom cannot read a DRF or track program past performance. Let's not forget Rick's Natural Star was only 50-1 in the BC Turf a few years ago and actually had more win money than a Grade 1 winning Marlin.

MaTH716 · #**125** 05-03-2009, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

I agree. He was 99-1 at William Hill in the U.K. But lets not forget the makeup of the crowd on Derby Day; many of whom cannot read a DRF or track program past performance. Let's not forget Rick's Natural Star was only 50-1 in the BC Turf a few years ago and actually had more win money than a Grade 1 winning Marlin.

Funny you mention BC, 4/6 on synthetics, can anyone say HELLO SANTA ANITA.

oh boy!

Bobby Fischer · #**126** 05-03-2009, 08:30 AM

race shape, and set up too fast/too forward....

combined with a lone horse running a separate optimal race and winning a gamble on a fortunate rail trip.

and the much-the-best horse running a no-show while supposedly injured

and the 3 other possibly good 10 furlong horses (dunkirk,desert party,chocolate candy) turned out to be mediocre or worse

herkhorse · #**127** 05-03-2009, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

race shape, and set up too fast/too forward....

combined with a lone horse running a separate optimal race and winning a gamble on a fortunate rail trip.

and the much-the-best horse running a no-show while supposedly injured

and the 3 other possibly good 10 furlong horses (dunkirk,desert party,chocolate candy) turned out to be mediocre or worse

Somebody paid them off?

Travis Stone · #**128** 05-03-2009, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Somebody paid them off?

I hope they paid them off AND bet Mine That Bird...

Bobby Fischer · #**129** 05-03-2009, 08:40 AM

it was a handicappers nightmare and the type of race that some fan hits...

anyone who knew anything about wagering would play against pioneer in most tickets other than the coverage tickets.

I had Calvin's horse and Join in the Dance (the speed) grouped 3rd or 4th in a superfecta each, but that is the highest I could envision him running to.

One of the hardest things about trying to make money at the horses, is that if you want to safely build your bankroll, you can't bet a lot more on the fun races then on any other good valued race. That can be damn near impossible when you handicap a race for so long, and have been so accurate for the last two years, and have such a strong opinion.

cowgirlintexas · #**130** 05-03-2009, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

But then if they would have lost too, somebody would be saying that they didn't run their race either. Why is it that when the track is off, people like to say that ONLY the winner ran their race? They did the same thing in 2004 with Smarty.

Facts.
The winner kicked ass today. Simple as that.

Some people said that Pioneer COULD NOT run on dirt. Not that they didn't think he'd be as effective on dirt as on synthetic but that he was a slow turf horse that COULD NOT run on it. They even suggested that anyone that asked the question "how do we know since he's never tried it" were idiots or insane and that the question was crap.

Now the question is whether or not he can run on a fast dirt track and the answer is the same. We still don't know.

Some people hate to be wrong. Instead of giving the winner credit, they'll find all kinds of ways to disparage a horse that obviously ran better than they thought they would. Even if it was in a seven length loss and the 10 best 3yos all scratched out, it was better than he was thought to run. It shouldn't matter if all of the top horses scratched out. If he was a slow turf horse that can't run on it, he shouldn't have finished second at all.

We won't mention any names

Bobby Fischer · #**131** 05-03-2009, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Somebody paid them off?

WTF are you talking about

Danzig · #**132** 05-03-2009, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

Maybe I missed something in the story along the way, but I don't understand why brisnet.com had Richard Mandella
listed as the trainer of Mine That Bird the day prior to the post position draw.

Here's the link, in case it still works:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...es/dby4-23.pdf

he was the trainer at one point in the geldings career.

herkhorse · #**133** 05-03-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

WTF are you talking about

I guess I was asking WTF you were talking about, implying that I Want Revenge was scratched for a reason other than an injury.

geeker2 · #**134** 05-03-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

WTF are you talking about?

LMAO

Left Bank · #**135** 05-03-2009, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

i agree with that. i was more excited about game one between the caps/pens then i was about the race.

What was the score,by the way?

Danzig · #**136** 05-03-2009, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left Bank

What was the score,by the way?

3-2 caps! i was so mad about having to leave, about half an hour before the faceoff. thank god for sirius. people were looking at me kind of funny driving down the road, slapping the dashboard and yelling 'steckelllllllll!!". got home in time to see the last five minutes or so on t.v. watched the whole thing again last night when my son got home.

3kings · #**137** 05-03-2009, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

it was a handicappers nightmare and the type of race that some fan hits...

anyone who knew anything about wagering would play against pioneer in most tickets other than the coverage tickets.

I had Calvin's horse and Join in the Dance (the speed) grouped 3rd or 4th in a superfecta each, but that is the highest I could envision him running to.

One of the hardest things about trying to make money at the horses, is that if you want to safely build your bankroll, you can't bet a lot more on the fun races then on any other good valued race. That can be damn near impossible when you handicap a race for so long, and have been so accurate for the last two years, and have such a strong opinion.

How was your price on Fresian Fire?

All you did was say how your price was getting ruined by all the scratches, now your taking shots at people who supported POTN. What did FF pay for 16th? or 18th?

Danzig · #**138** 05-03-2009, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3kings

How was your price on Fresian Fire?

All you did is say how your price was getting ruined by all the scratches, now your taking shots at people who supported POTN. What did FF pay for 16th?

he finished 18th, beat only flying private. larry jones was bitching after-this is why i'm retiring. oh, shut up and retire already.

byalip · #**139** 05-03-2009, 09:07 AM

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

Danzig · #**140** 05-03-2009, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by byalip

Is anyone ready to concede that jockeys DO make a difference? If so, would you confess to including them in your handicapping strategy?

I seem to recall them being compared to trained monkeys who are just along for the ride, they can screw up a horse's chances and make them lose but they can't factor into a win or a robot could do the job.

Now what?

many times i don't even look at who's riding.
bill shoemaker could have risen from the dead to ride mine that bird, he'd have still been 50-1-and rightfully so.

calvin doesn't win every race with that ride you know. he has to have the horse to pull it off. it worked yesterday. everything came together for him and he got the brass ring.