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#121
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#122
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![]() If there is a horse without question marks - it's obviously Pyro.
He was always a very straight-forward read and you know he is going to fire on Derby day. He has big 2yo figures on the go-back, but they came in losing efforts. He has all clear-cut winning efforts this year, but they came without big figures. He overcame a horrible setup in his return win. He put himself much closer to the pace most recently and won from just a few lengths off of the pace. A horse like War Pass put together four straight big bullet works in September prior to his 9/2 Champagne win where he opened up 5 in the blink of an eye. While War Pass looked like the kind of horse who was trained to peak for the Champagne and give Zito his 5th win in the race in 11 years - Pyro has always been handled the way one would train a slow developing horse who is meant to peak later on. Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him. |
#123
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E Dubai was 1-for-4 on off tracks and 3-for-6 on fast tracks. |
#124
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#125
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![]() The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.
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#126
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#127
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The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them. Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1 |
#128
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![]() Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.
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#129
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#130
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Pyro won't get that kind of setup. |
#131
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#132
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Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up... He is better than what they show. Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out... Again, pace scenario. Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic. Giacomo won the Derby because he loved Churchill Downs, and Afleet Alex didn't run his race. |
#133
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Nobody says these horses couldn't be decent dirt horses. But, breeding or not, I don't see how they will be ready for a very fast pace after getting used to crawling for 6f every time. |
#134
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ID and I were talking about Beyers for three year olds... And I just did look the Beyers up... http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer |
#135
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You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85. |
#136
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If I didn't, sorry, that's what I meant. I did say that...I said "Again, pace scenario"....after that statement about Colonel John and El Gato Malo. |
#137
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![]() I did edit mine before you posted...I realize they are older. The point is, you can get fast Beyers going two turns.
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#138
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#139
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#140
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And further, both of their sires have been very effective at siring synthetic runners. El Gato Malo is sired by El Corredor ...who sired Domincan to an upset victory over Street Sense on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass. Colonel John is by Tiznow....who's current other horses Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed are all more accomplished on synthetic tracks than dirt tracks. I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt. |