War Pass --DB ?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by jms62

Monmouth Park is a very speed favoring track. Add in the Slop which also favors front end speed especially Juves not used to getting mud in there face. He won by a diminishing margin each of his route starts vs Pyro (Pyro cutting into lead). He needed to be challanged on the front end, he was and basically he either is not 100 % or he quit, neither a good place to be this close to the derby. Also, the Juvenile jinx, do you really thing that we go 20 odd years before the Juve winner takes the derby and it happens twice in a row. IMHO this years derby will be a Great betting race.

Runaway slop beyers are deceiving, what did E Dubai get at Belmont if anyone remembers? A 113+ if my memory is correct, take that race out and what are we left with in his route resume, don't forget those routes are 1 turn Belmont efforts, Johanessburg ran huge at Belmont also but never was quite a 2 turn horse. WP is a good horse and it is no fault of his he was hyped, but perhaps the blinders were put on when assessing him here. Everyone loves a brilliant undefeated 2 yr old heading into his derby yr!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If there is a horse without question marks - it's obviously Pyro.

He was always a very straight-forward read and you know he is going to fire on Derby day.

He has big 2yo figures on the go-back, but they came in losing efforts. He has all clear-cut winning efforts this year, but they came without big figures. He overcame a horrible setup in his return win. He put himself much closer to the pace most recently and won from just a few lengths off of the pace.

A horse like War Pass put together four straight big bullet works in September prior to his 9/2 Champagne win where he opened up 5 in the blink of an eye.

While War Pass looked like the kind of horse who was trained to peak for the Champagne and give Zito his 5th win in the race in 11 years - Pyro has always been handled the way one would train a slow developing horse who is meant to peak later on.

Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Runaway slop beyers are deceiving, what did E Dubai get at Belmont if anyone remembers? A 113+ if my memory is correct, take that race out and what are we left with in his route resume

A second place finish in the Travers and a win in the Suburban Handicap with figures at or above his slop win?

E Dubai was 1-for-4 on off tracks and 3-for-6 on fast tracks.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him.

In a normal year, I'd argue he has never run particularly fast (I don't buy the Juvy Beyer for a second) and has beat nothing but tomato cans this year, but there just aren't any horses running fast races right now. He looks as good or better than any other horse.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

If these SoCal races were run on turf, would you still feel the same about their chances on dirt? It is basically the same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

5 of the 7 fastest Beyer figures run by a 3-year-old male this year have been run at Santa Anita - and 6 of the 8 fastest since Christmas have been run there.

The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them.

Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1

[cmorioles]

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

Cali horses were getting smoked when moving to dirt. Yesterdays win by Sierra Sunset gives at least me to say hmmm, maybe something is brewing out West. Georgie Boy also had a very nice effort... Maybe one sneaks in and we get Giacomo numbers... I think the low Beyers may be attributed to how races are now run on the Synthetic. It is more like a Turf race with no one wanting the lead until it is time to break for home.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

He was "lucky" because he got a race over-flowing with speed horses his Derby year - topped off by Spanish Chestnut who was running as a rabbit.

Pyro won't get that kind of setup.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He was "lucky" because he got a race over-flowing with speed horses his Derby year - topped off by Spanish Chestnut who was running as a rabbit.

Pyro won't get that kind of setup.

Well, that, and he just wasn't very good.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

5 of the 7 fastest Beyer figures run by a 3-year-old male this year have been run at Santa Anita - and 6 of the 8 fastest since Christmas have been run there.

The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them.

Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1

The high Beyers were sprinting...

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out... Again, pace scenario.

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

Giacomo won the Derby because he loved Churchill Downs, and Afleet Alex didn't run his race.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The high Beyers were sprinting...

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out...

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

Heatseeker has the highest dirt route Beyer among older horses. Go Between is up there as well. From a different race, Monterrey Jazz is 5th this year routing.

Nobody says these horses couldn't be decent dirt horses. But, breeding or not, I don't see how they will be ready for a very fast pace after getting used to crawling for 6f every time.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Ummm...Heatseeker has the highest dirt route Beyer. Go Between is up there as well. From a different race, Monterrey Jazz is 5th this year routing.

Nobody says these horses couldn't be decent dirt horses. But, breeding or not, I don't see how they will be ready for a very fast pace after getting used to crawling for 6f every time.

They aren't 3 yos...

ID and I were talking about Beyers for three year olds...

And I just did look the Beyers up...

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

His first race...not so much his second one

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out...

This is rich.

You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

His first race...not so much his second one



This is rich.

You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85.

All of the numbers are misleading because of the pace scenarios in the races. Isn't that what I said...

If I didn't, sorry, that's what I meant.

I did say that...I said "Again, pace scenario"....after that statement about Colonel John and El Gato Malo.

[cmorioles]

I did edit mine before you posted...I realize they are older. The point is, you can get fast Beyers going two turns.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

1-20 is an awful lot of historical perspective. So much so, perhaps, that even the most expert among us would be hard pressed to recall the last undefeated 2 yo champ who went down badly in an important prep race at that kind of price.

Devils Bag ?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

He backed it up in the BC Classic.Despite the love people have for the DERBY,it's still very much a case of who loves Churchill Downs.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

El Gato Malo's and Colonel John's dams were both better turf horses than dirt horses.

And further, both of their sires have been very effective at siring synthetic runners.

El Gato Malo is sired by El Corredor ...who sired Domincan to an upset victory over Street Sense on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass.

Colonel John is by Tiznow....who's current other horses Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed are all more accomplished on synthetic tracks than dirt tracks.

I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.