2/2 (GP): Gr. I Donn; Gr. II Swale - Page 7

fpsoxfan · #**121** 02-02-2008, 04:25 PM

Kiss the Kid ran a very good race to finish 3rd. Dahaar just didn't have it today. Didn't look as though the jockey could really relax him.

#**122** 02-02-2008, 04:27 PM

Wrong on Fairbanks. Thanks CDI for twinspires being down.

Daaher is a good miler.

ArlJim78 · #**123** 02-02-2008, 04:33 PM

there have been 15 9F races at Gulfstream this year.
11 have been won by the 1 or 2 horse.
all other post positions have only 4 wins.

both races today were won by the 2.

fpsoxfan · #**124** 02-02-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

WELL BIG GUY WHAT DID BRASS HAT PAY?...

I had a feeling this post was coming. LOL

ateamstupid · #**125** 02-02-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Kiss the Kid ran a very good race to finish 3rd. Dahaar just didn't have it today. Didn't look as though the jockey could really relax him.

Agreed re: Kiss the Kid. Huge race. It looked to me like Daaher had to have gotten hurt. Just speculation, but dude was going backwards in the stretch.

#**126** 02-02-2008, 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Agreed re: Kiss the Kid. Huge race. It looked to me like Daaher had to have gotten hurt. Just speculation, but dude was going backwards in the stretch.

His pride maybe.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**127** 02-02-2008, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

His pride maybe.

i give km a bit of blame ..luzzi hasent rode one race at gs till this one..weather the horse was short or not..and i know its his mount out of loyalty..but still......

blackthroatedwind · #**128** 02-02-2008, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i give km a bit of blame ..luzzi hasent rode one race at gs till this one..weather the horse was short or not..and i know its his mount out of loyalty..but still......

Luzzi rode him 100% perfectly. How can you even suggest that the rider had anything to do with it? The horse abdicated going into the turn.

Enough with the jockeys.

The Indomitable DrugS · #**129** 02-02-2008, 04:43 PM

Daheer was obviously very overrated off of his Cigar Mile win - where on a clear lead he set identical fractions to a wire-to-wire 8/1 shot 2yo Lukas maiden (Legacy Thief) ... however, hard to believe he was going to run that bad.

I think even the last holdouts of the Doug O'Neill stinks with shippers arguement are ready to raise the white flags.

What an awful race.

blackthroatedwind · #**130** 02-02-2008, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Daheer was obviously very overrated off of his Cigar Mile win - where on a clear lead he set identical fractions to a wire-to-wire 8/1 shot 2yo Lukas maiden (Legacy Thief) ... however, hard to believe he was going to run that bad.

I think even the last holdouts of the Doug O'Neill stinks with shippers arguement are ready to raise the white flags.

What an awful race.

Obviously you can't use this race as a true measure of Daaher's ability. Something went wrong.

However, as you said, even right after the race, his Cigar Mile wasn't as good as many thought upon disection. As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Right now he looks like a horse that needs things to go his way to shine. Maybe he's a slower version of Commentator. I'm sure you will agree that Commentator would have dominated that Cigar Mile if given an identical trip.

justindew · #**131** 02-02-2008, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously you can't use this race as a true measure of Daaher's ability. Something went wrong.

However, as you said, even right after the race, his Cigar Mile wasn't as good as many thought upon disection. As usual, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Right now he looks like a horse that needs things to go his way to shine. Maybe he's a slower version of Commentator. I'm sure you will agree that Commentator would have dominated that Cigar Mile if given an identical trip.

Dominated?

blackthroatedwind · #**132** 02-02-2008, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Dominated?

What was the confusing part for you? Was it the number of syllables?

#**133** 02-02-2008, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Daaher can obviously win and if you like him, he'll probably be a worthwhile bet simply because Einstein will take far more $$ than he's worth. In fact, Einstein in the Donn alone makes it worth wagering on the race. Daaher looks to me like he'll be within a tick of 7/5.

The horse that could get lost on the board is Spring at LAst. I think he and Daaher and perhaps AP Arrow are the only contenders certain to get the trip they want. I think Spring can rate enough and if he goes off over 4/1, that will be a win play for me. I'll also use him over/under with Daaher and over AP Arrow in the ex.

Thats 14.00

Excellent job.

And the exacta...37.60
Damn.

The Indomitable DrugS · #**134** 02-02-2008, 05:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Dominated?

I think he would have won the Cigar for sure.

Amazingly, even with the dream pace/setup he had in the Cigar Mile - Daheer actually ran a few lengths slower than Midnight Lute on the sheet figures...and the sheet figures don't even take pace, trip, and trainer intention into consideration.

The Cigar Mile was flat out CONCEDED to Daheer.

Even if you don't believe - or downgrade stuff like weight and ground loss (like I do) - it was still a race where the winner had every little angle known to man in his corner...while the 2nd place finisher had every little angle known to man against him in that race.

Besides Daheer and Midnight Lute.... there was crap in that field.

Of course Commentator wins the Cigar if allowed the once-in-a-lifetime trip and setup Daheer got.

justindew · #**135** 02-02-2008, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What was the confusing part for you? Was it the number of syllables?

No, the syllables I can handle. Just not sure I agree that it's a given he would have dominated that race.

The Indomitable DrugS · #**136** 02-02-2008, 05:07 PM

If you subtract Daheer - added Commentator - and assumed Commentator would get the same trip as Dahher (which he has the speed to) - of course he would have won in fashion every bit as similar as Daheer won.

And I say think thinking a little less of Commentator than BTW does.

justindew · #**137** 02-02-2008, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If you subtract Daheer - added Commentator - and assumed Commentator would get the same trip as Dahher (which he has the speed to) - of course he would have won in fashion every bit as similar as Daheer won.

And I say think thinking a little less of Commentator than BTW does.

I don't disagree that he would have won. It's just difficult for me to visualize Commentator DOMINATING anything these days other than an optional claimer at Gulfstream on a Thursday over a fast surface around one turn after going the opening 1/4 in 23:4 against the likes of Wood Be Willing.

But whatever.

The Indomitable DrugS · #**138** 02-02-2008, 05:22 PM

He would have got the same pace and trip in the Cigar that he did in that optional claimer.

He ran a 119 Beyer in the Opt Claimer.

Please explain to me, how he wouldn't have run just about the same figure with that same trip in the Cigar.

Would the "class" of Midnight Lute ... who would have been well behind him .. somehow slowed Commentator down??

Think this one through.

justindew · #**139** 02-02-2008, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He would have got the same pace and trip in the Cigar that he did in that optional claimer.

He ran a 119 Beyer in the Opt Claimer.

Please explain to me, how he wouldn't have run just about the same figure with that same trip in the Cigar.

Would the "class" of Midnight Lute ... who would have been well behind him .. somehow slowed Commentator down??

Think this one through.

Not that this necessarily refutes your argument, but when is the last time Commentator won a stakes race against open company, much less a Grade I? I really don't know the answer to that off the top of my head, so someone please tell me.

I suppose it's fair to say he would have won under the exact same conditions, but if you can make that argument for Commentator, you can probably make it for a few other horses currently in training.

The Indomitable DrugS · #**140** 02-02-2008, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Not that this necessarily refutes your argument, but when is the last time Commentator won a stakes race against open company, much less a Grade I? I really don't know the answer to that off the top of my head, so someone please tell me.

In the Whitney, when he beat eventual horse of the year Saint Liam. And that was the last time he was loose on the lead in a Grade 1.

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I suppose it's fair to say he would have won under the exact same conditions, but if you can make that argument for Commentator, you can probably make it for a few other horses currently in training.

I agree...though, very few would have looked as good as Commentator would have with that kind of a trip.