BC Mile - George Washington

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Yes, if you can't tell the difference between Japan racing and European racing then there is really nothing I can do for you. Also, if you cant tell the difference between what Deep Impact will be facing and what George Washington will be facing then I can't help you with that either.

Heart's Cry won in Dubai, and got a very impressive 3rd to Electrocutionist and Hurricane Run. It wasn't as if they left Heart's Cry in the dust (ooppss...turf grass LOL). I think Deep Impact will fit right in there with Shirocco and Hurricane Run. It fact, I think that Heart's Cry and Pride might could make some noise as well if they are running in this spot. It is a GREAT field. The one with the most heart will win.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Yes, if you can't tell the difference between Japan racing and European racing then there is really nothing I can do for you. Also, if you cant tell the difference between what Deep Impact will be facing and what George Washington will be facing then I can't help you with that either.

Please, Euro... don't talk to me like a child. Of course there's a difference, but Deep Impact is impressive, I don't care who he's run against. (Same argument many are making about Bernardini.)

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Please, Euro... don't talk to me like a child. Of course there's a difference, but Deep Impact is impressive, I don't care who he's run against. (Same argument many are making about Bernardini.)

Is George not impressive, then?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

Is George not impressive, then?

OF COURSE he is. I don't think anyone will beat him in this. My point to Euro was how he could find GW impressive when he doesn't find Deep Impact impressive. What's impressive about them both is their tremendous speed and turn of foot. JMO.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

I think George is very impressive, but not so much that he is a lock in the BC Mile. I think a few others could give him a run for his money, especially since he is shipping over here...

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Heart's Cry won in Dubai, and got a very impressive 3rd to Electrocutionist and Hurricane Run. It wasn't as if they left Heart's Cry in the dust (ooppss...turf grass LOL). I think Deep Impact will fit right in there with Shirocco and Hurricane Run. It fact, I think that Heart's Cry and Pride might could make some noise as well if they are running in this spot. It is a GREAT field. The one with the most heart will win.

Heart's Cry is the only horse to have beaten Deep Impact, yet he wasn't able to match an under-revved Hurricane Run (Fabre never has his horses at their peak in mid-summer, saving them for the bigger targets later on, and its only because he is Coolmore ownder, that he was obliged to run Hurricane in the KG). And given that he has never run on ground even approaching as soft as he will encounter on Sunday, why anyone would think of backing him at 3/1 is just beyond me!

[blackthroatedwind]

I think Deep Impact's connection's will regret skipping the prep race and simply working him over the Longchamp course.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think Deep Impact's connection's will regret skipping the prep race and simply working him over the Longchamp course.

I have to agree with that.

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

I've read this thread with interest.
Personally I think its a little childish saying "we've got better horses than you," etc etc. But ultimately the racing scenes that have developed either side of the Atlantic have done so pretty much in complete isolation of one another. That's not to say Europeans don't buy American bred horses at the sales...they tend to be the fastest, and we know that these days the race is to the quick. That's also not to say that Americans don't purchase proven top European performers to go and compete over there. Why not? And then there's the occasional raid made on an American race by a European-trained horse, largely because of the money that can be won over there.

Oracle repeatedly stated that money was the be all and end all. In this regard there are parallels with the Ryder Cup. Perhaps its the case that the American psyche covets the almighty dollar above all else, and cannot find motivation for anything so trivial as prestige. That said, we know the same isn't the case of Sheikh Mohammed, but that's only because he was born as one of the richest men on the planet!

I prefer European racing because of the variety, the fact that speed hasn't become (as much) so critical, and at the expense of stamina. That you can watch racing at courses as diverse as Newmarket, Epsom, Chester, Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown from one day to the next without getting the impression that you could be at any other track. That said, the uniformity of US tracks must surely help those looking to make a profit from their punting.

I also like the fact that the authorities haven't bowed to pressure and felt obliged to legalise the use of those drugs that have become an integral part of the sport in the US.

Most of all, however, I like the fact that Flat racing dies a death in October/early November and jump racing takes over until late April. I wouldn't have my winters any other way!

I think in this regard we should reserve praise for Deep Impact's connections. For all that I don't think their horse will finish in the first 3 on Sunday, I applaud the fact that they came to win the world's biggest turf race, rather than be lured by the prospect of winning more money in the BC Turf, where (I believe) their charge would have had a better chance.

[Hwjb]

At the finish Ascot is pretty level, although is uphill for the first 1.5f of its short 2.5f straight. In soft ground it can get quite testing, and compared to US races, I'm sure more stamina is required to win over a mile there.

However, as I've said before George is certainly not lacking in speed, he was a blisteringly quick 2yo, and it is merely to his credit that he won over a mile in dead ground there. I imagine he would be capable of winning G1s from 6f to 1m.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Apparently, nobody paid attention to me on the other thread so I'll post this again over here. The record of horses that come to the BC Mile directly from the QE II:

1985-(1st) Shadeed.......4th at 5/1 (moved to third by dq)

1987-(1st) Milligram......13th at 7/1
1987-(2nd) Miesque......won the BC
1987-(3rd) Sonic Lady....3rd in BC

1988-(1st) Warning........11th at 9/5 (favorite)

1989-(1st) Zilzal............6th at even money (favorite)
1989-(4th) Green Line Express......11th in BC

1990-(1st) Markofdistinction.........7th at 7/1

1991-(2nd) Kooyonga..........13th in BC
1991-(3rd) Shadayid..............7th in BC
1991-(4th) Second Set...........12th in BC

1992-(2nd) Brief Truce..........3rd in BC

1993-(1st) Bigstone.........6th at 12/1
1993-(2nd) Barathea........5th in BC

1994-(2nd) Barathea........won the BC
1994-(5th) Distant View......7th in BC
1994-(7th) East of the Moon.......12th in BC

1995-(2nd) Ridgewood Pearl.........won the BC

1996-(1st) Mark of Esteem.......7th at 6/5 (favorite)

1998-(1st) Desert Prince........14th at 3/1
1998-(3rd) Second Empire........6th in BC
1998-(4th) Cape Cross..........9th in BC
1998-(5th) Among Men.........11th in BC

2001-(2nd) Noverre...........7th in BC
2001-(4th) Bach...............3rd in BC

2004-(8th) Diamond Green........8th in BC
2004-(9th) Antonius Pius......2nd in BC

So u can see here that there have been eight QE II winners that have come over and run in the BC Mile as their next start. All eight have lost. Three of them have been favored and one was a second choice. The average price they've gone off at is $4.88/1 The BEST finish by any of the eight is a THIRD (by dq). This list doesn't even include Selkirk, the 1992 QE II winner that ran in another race before the BC then came over and lost the Mile (5th as the 7/2 second choice.

My point here is that winning the QE II has been a virtual kiss of death when it comes to the BC Mile. U have a much better chance of cashing a winning ticket with a horse that is coming out of the race that DIDN'T win it. Three QE II losers have come back to win the Mile. Ironically, all three of those horses were coming off of second place finishes in the QE II.

Overall, there have been 27 horses that have run in the BC Mile after making their last start in the QE II. They have an overall record of 3-1-4.

Play George Washington at your own risk. I'll be playing Araafa, who by the way, has already beaten George Washington this year once. And the price will be much better.

Thanks for posting this King Glorious. This is very, very helpful. I'll most likely play against him now too.

[The Bid]

How about everyone that wants to play against him, Ill book the bet.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

Heart's Cry is the only horse to have beaten Deep Impact, yet he wasn't able to match an under-revved Hurricane Run (Fabre never has his horses at their peak in mid-summer, saving them for the bigger targets later on, and its only because he is Coolmore ownder, that he was obliged to run Hurricane in the KG). And given that he has never run on ground even approaching as soft as he will encounter on Sunday, why anyone would think of backing him at 3/1 is just beyond me!

Deep Impact may never have ran on soft ground before, but with the way he moves, it won't make a difference. He will skip right on over that track just as he has done on every other track.

Also, I've watched and watched the replay of the Arima Kinen, and Deep Impact was getting to Heart's Cry. The jock on Deep Impact underestimated Heart's Cry and didn't move soon enough. He was too far back to get to him. I'm sure the jock won't make that mistake again.

Now, I don't like the layoff. We will see.

[georgewashington]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well it appears that the BC Mile is now over. I believe GW is going to go in the mile. He will destroy this field with great ease. What is great about this move is that it may set-up a showdown between Gorella and Ouija Board in the Filly and Mare Turf. Boy what a great race that is going to be. I would lean towards OB because of who she has been up against, but Gorella is where my heart is. But keep in mind that they both have to catch Wait A While--remember Intercontinental last year. Maybe we will see a repeat performace by Wait A While.

This belief of yours is based on what? I know they have not made a decision and there is a chance he will not be coming and if he does the classic is still being discussed. George is no lock anywhere because he is quite the headcase. Who knows how he will react to the travel.

[The Bid]

Deep Impact is the absolute nuts if he fires. Period.

So is G dub.

[georgewashington]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I thought you were pretty high on your namesake. "The best in the world. Probably the best miler in a generation." Best in a generation would probably mean he should win the Mile right?

He has to show up to win and he still has the Classic option.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by georgewashington

This belief of yours is based on what? I know they have not made a decision and there is a chance he will not be coming and if he does the classic is still being discussed. George is no lock anywhere because he is quite the headcase. Who knows how he will react to the travel.

I just love all this insider stuff!

And here we all were 100% sure that George Washington was coming for the Mile. I may have to cancel my BC plans.

[georgewashington]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just love all this insider stuff!

And here we all were 100% sure that George Washington was coming for the Mile. I may have to cancel my BC plans.

You don't need to be an insider. O'Brien has said publicly he is not sure what he is doing. It is still September and the race is in November. There are a bunch of interesting scenarios and they all involve his fee for next year. A win in the BC Mile is likely to do very little for his fee. A top 3 finish in the Classic could be worth quite a bit more for obvious reasons. This is Ballydoyle.

[georgewashington]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Well obviously he has to show up to win, and they would be nuts to run this horse in the Classic.

You are thinking like a fan. They think like an owner of a stallion. Coolmore would gain nothing from a BC Mile win. His fee is not going to go up with another group 1 win on the turf. The winnings from the BC Mile are nothing compared to what another $50-100K added to a starting fee would be.

[The Bid]

Blackthroat, why do you knock the insider information, when you play a role as an insider too.