Watched Flower Alley work this morning

[slotdirt]

My point was that it's a bit of an exaggeration to say any of those horses would have won any of those races at any distance.

[Gander]

Well I should have been more clear. I believe the best horse won all of those races and the difference between them being 1 1/8th miles or 1 1/4 miles played no role in determining the winner.

I think Bluegrass ran his eyeballs out in the Haskell, was very imporessed with that effort from an outside post in a field which I think was fairly strong.

Bernadini is an incredible talent so far, anyone who would question this really has no idea what they are talking about.
But the most "talented" horse doesn't always win, if they did, noone would have to work. You could just bet the most talented horse in a race all the time and live on a tropical island.
In the end, I feel that Bernadini will accomplish more than his rival Bluegrass Cat, thats because Bernadini is lightly raced and still has room for development.
To beat one like this you have to have all the circumstances go right. WIth Bernadini they are thinking BC Classic, etc. as the main goals. I don't think they have emptied him out to run a lifetime best race here. I think that the decision to run Bluegrass Cat back on short rest is an indication that this is THE RACE for him. This is the goal. BC's work the other day was described to me by someone I very much respect as "perfect" and the work of the meet.
If he runs his absolute "A" race and Bernadini doesn't run his, he can win. I think that the difference in prices dictates that you either bet BC or you pass the race and watch it. Now if they both go off at the same price(won't happen) you have to bet Bernadini. But since that won't happen, if you get what you feel is value on BC then you have to bet him. The way I see value is to single BC in the pik-4 and the Pik-3's. WIth so much hobby money and once or twice a year at the track money, people will be disproportionately singling Bern. Should he lose, even to the strong 2nd choice, the pik-4 and the pik-3's will be like Christmas time.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by Gander

What exactly does pedigree have to do with winning the Travers? Your losing me. And the jockey thing I dont really think matters much more than who the horse's parents were. Best horse will win.

I agree that Albertrani is a good bet against but I think you really have to make Bernardini an exception. I dont care how many million dollar horses this guy trains and hasnt been able to win with. I think Bernardini is very special and wins this race. Bluegrass Cat of course has a shot, but I think he'll be bet way more than you think and offer little value on Saturday.

I personally will take Bernardini's pedigree over BC, and unless the actual trainers are getting in the starting gate and racing each other, I'll take the better horse, for what it's worth at least Albertrani has won a classic race, Pletcher is ofer a lot more attempts, that info is as relevant as their stats this meet. It's the horses who are running!!!!