6/6 (BEL): Belmont; Manhattan; Acorn; Just a Game; Et Al.. - Page 6

gales0678 · #**101** 06-05-2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

No, I don't agree he should be odds on. I do think he is a solid favorite and that his fair odds are in the 8/5 to 9/5 range. I'd need 2-1 to consider a bet; I'd be happy to bet him at 5-2.

--Dunbar

thx

gales0678 · #**102** 06-05-2009, 12:53 PM

1 more dunbar

what is a fair price tomorrow in the Just a Game for:

#6 Modern Look

JerseyJ · #**103** 06-05-2009, 01:37 PM

Considering Modern Look has no chance to wire the field with Raw Silk in the field, considering she couldn't hold off Dawn After Dawn after getting a perfect pressing trip on a medium pace going 1 Mile, and likely will not be able to hold off horses with the class and ability of Forever Together and My Princess Jess, I would rate her chances as having no shot, and she should be 30/1 or higher.

gales0678 · #**104** 06-05-2009, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Considering Modern Look has no chance to wire the field with Raw Silk in the field, considering she couldn't hold off Dawn After Dawn after getting a perfect pressing trip on a medium pace going 1 Mile, and likely will not be able to hold off horses with the class and ability of Forever Together and My Princess Jess, I would rate her chances as having no shot, and she should be 30/1 or higher.

according to the barn she is in better shape now and ready to go , can you give me a fair price on him for this race , in your opinion it sounds like he s/b 50/1?

JerseyJ · #**105** 06-05-2009, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

according to the barn she is in better shape now and ready to go , can you give me a fair price on him for this race , in your opinion it sounds like he s/b 50/1?

Don't believe everything you hear from barns...This horse could be in great shape but based on the field for the race, she has no chance. The horse could be doing best of all, but how's she going to hold of Forever Together and My Princess Jess in the stretch? How's she going to see the early lead when Raw Silk is faster than her early. She couldn't hold off Dawn After Dawn who came back to run 2nd in an extremely below average edition of the Distaff Turf Mile, as any horse in that field would be drowned by anyone in this field. I think anything less than 20/1 or 30/1 is a severe underlay for Modern Look.

gales0678 · #**106** 06-05-2009, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Don't believe everything you hear from barns...This horse could be in great shape but based on the field for the race, she has no chance. The horse could be doing best of all, but how's she going to hold of Forever Together and My Princess Jess in the stretch? How's she going to see the early lead when Raw Silk is faster than her early. She couldn't hold off Dawn After Dawn who came back to run 2nd in an extremely below average edition of the Distaff Turf Mile, as any horse in that field would be drowned by anyone in this field. I think anything less than 20/1 or 30/1 is a severe underlay for Modern Look.

if she goes off above 20/1 . i take a stab

Dunbar · #**107** 06-05-2009, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I hope so because he's my top choice in the race, but I don't understand how Dunkirk factors into Dunbar's argument against Miner's Escape at all.

hockey, I only mentioned Dunkirk as an argument against Miner's Escape somehow getting an easy lead. (and I was probably mis-interpreting ateam's post as suggesting that Miner's Escape DID have speed.)

Bottom line, though, is I don't see how lack of pace in the race is going to help Miner's Escape. There are good horses like Dunkirk and Charitable Man that will probably be in front of him early, and there are good horses like Mine That Bird, Summer Bird and Flying Private that will be coming late from the back of the pack.

As far as Dunkirk goes, there's obviously a lot of guesswork. Do you completely toss his Derby? I'm reluctant to toss races completely. If I toss Dunkirk's Derby, I'd have him at 7-2 tomorrow. As it is, he's closer to 9-2 in my line.

--Dunbar

Dunbar · #**108** 06-05-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

1 more dunbar

what is a fair price tomorrow in the Just a Game for:

#6 Modern Look

Haven't capped it yet, Gales.

--Dunbar

Linny · #**109** 06-05-2009, 01:54 PM

She's at least got a nice record over "less than firm" turf. She's faced very good fillies all her life but this looks like a tough spot, in terms of the race shape. You should get a a nice price.

hockey2315 · #**110** 06-05-2009, 01:58 PM

Dunkirk's Derby is a complete toss. The trick is figuring out whether or not to believe his prior races (personally, I do). Miner's Escape is a speed horse/presser type in this field considering that the only other horse with much early speed is Charitable Man - the furthest he'll be back early is second barring a terrible break or some other unforeseen occurrence. The tough one to figure out for me is Summer Bird. There are some things to like, and some things to hate. It would help to know how Kent plans on riding him with the addition of blinkers. If he's tracking the leaders early maybe he's the one to take at a price.

gales0678 · #**111** 06-05-2009, 02:00 PM

maybe kent stays just behind calvin , and when calvin goes kent will go?

kent obviously on another horse in the derby made a premature move , calvin just let him go that day and picked up the pieces

JerseyJ · #**112** 06-05-2009, 02:05 PM

I think Flying Private is worth just as much of a flyer underneath as Summer Bird and Flying Private may be a better price. Flying Private obviously didn't handle the off track in Derby as he never has yet, and he arguably had a much worse trip than Summer Bird in Arkansas. I think it's between Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, and Flying Private. The three fastest horses in the race/the three horses with the top figures.

gales0678 · #**113** 06-05-2009, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

I think Flying Private is worth just as much of a flyer underneath as Summer Bird and Flying Private may be a better price. Flying Private obviously didn't handle the off track in Derby as he never has yet, and he arguably had a much worse trip than Summer Bird in Arkansas. I think it's between Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, and Flying Private. The three fastest horses in the race/the three horses with the top figures.

jersey j - isn't charitable man's numbers as fast as those 3 - i heard he has a 2 on the rags , mtb only has a 3 as his best , dunkirk also has a 2

Antitrust32 · #**114** 06-05-2009, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

I think Flying Private is worth just as much of a flyer underneath as Summer Bird and Flying Private may be a better price. Flying Private obviously didn't handle the off track in Derby as he never has yet, and he arguably had a much worse trip than Summer Bird in Arkansas. I think it's between Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, and Flying Private. The three fastest horses in the race/the three horses with the top figures.

Those are my three horses also... Though I do not expect Flying Private to win... I could see him hitting the board.

I would actually bet someone in a head to head I'll take Flying Private and they can have Charity Case.

Sightseek · #**115** 06-05-2009, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Those are my three horses also... Though I do not expect Flying Private to win... I could see him hitting the board.

I would actually bet someone in a head to head I'll take Flying Private and they can have Charity Case.

What are you betting?

Antitrust32 · #**116** 06-05-2009, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

What are you betting?

probably $20 to win on Dunkirk

& a Mine that Bird, Flying Private and Dunkirk exacta box.

Sightseek · #**117** 06-05-2009, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

probably $20 to win on Dunkirk

& a Mine that Bird, Flying Private and Dunkirk exacta box.

I mean in the head to head.

Antitrust32 · #**118** 06-05-2009, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

What are you betting?

oh sorry.. a head to head is when you and a partner each pick a horse in the race and whichever horse beats the other wins (doesnt matter if they run last and next to last).

I'm a poor bitch but I'd put $10 or $20 on Flying Private beating Charitable man.

Antitrust32 · #**119** 06-05-2009, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I mean in the head to head.

You wanna put $15 on it and take Charitable Man?

I'm leaving work in 4 minutes and most likely wont be on the internet til monday so let me know now!

Sightseek · #**120** 06-05-2009, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

You wanna put $15 on it and take Charitable Man?

I'm leaving work in 4 minutes and most likely wont be on the internet til monday so let me know now!

Done, have a good weekend!