3/29 (GP): 57th Florida Derby (Gr. I)

[ShadowRoll]

Don't know if this has been posted already, but free PPs (and a few other products) for Florida Derby on Equibase home page.

http://www.equibase.com/

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Maybe try this?

http://www.jcp.org.pe/

I see they have a poll over there....can someone who knows more than just half of the English Language tell me what this means....


JOCKEY CLUB DEL PERU
RESULTADOS DE LA ENCUESTA
¿ Cómo llegará Tomcito el sábado en el Florida Derby (Gr.1) ?

Cuarto o más atrás : 432 64.9%
Ganará : 205 30.8%
Segundo : 21 3.2%
Tercero : 8 1.2%
Total Encuestados: 666


It seems like almost 2/3rds of the 666 people who voted say Tomcito will finish Cuarto O Mas Atras...while almost 1/3rd has him finishing Ganara.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I see they have a poll over there....can someone who knows more than just half of the English Language tell me what this means....


JOCKEY CLUB DEL PERU
RESULTADOS DE LA ENCUESTA
¿ Cómo llegará Tomcito el sábado en el Florida Derby (Gr.1) ? Where will Tomcito finish in the Florida Derby

Cuarto o más atrás : 432 64.9% fourth or more back
Ganará : 205 30.8% first
Segundo : 21 3.2% second
Tercero : 8 1.2% third
Total Encuestados: 666


It seems like almost 2/3rds of the 666 people who voted say Tomcito will finish Cuarto O Mas Atras...while almost 1/3rd has him finishing Ganara.

And my title says Tomcito sucks a.ss

[FGFan]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I see they have a poll over there....can someone who knows more than just half of the English Language tell me what this means....


JOCKEY CLUB DEL PERU
RESULTADOS DE LA ENCUESTA
¿ Cómo llegará Tomcito el sábado en el Florida Derby (Gr.1) ?

Cuarto o más atrás : 432 64.9%
Ganará : 205 30.8%
Segundo : 21 3.2%
Tercero : 8 1.2%
Total Encuestados: 666


It seems like almost 2/3rds of the 666 people who voted say Tomcito will finish Cuarto O Mas Atras...while almost 1/3rd has him finishing Ganara.

from the google translator:

How come Tomcito Saturday in the Florida Derby (Gr.1)?

Fourth or more back: 432 64.9%
Win: 205 30.8%
Second: 21 3.2%
Third: 8 1.2%
Respondent Total: 666

and according to the google translator

Tomcito chupa culo is Tomcito sucks a.ss

CP's is Tomcito aspires to be a donkey

I don't speak spanish but have to use the translator alot.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

According to the DRF entries Gulfstream doesn't have a PK4 on Saturday. . .

They have two listed now. . . One starting in Race 5 and one in Race 9. . .

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

No. Big Brown has monster figures and wins. The morning line may even be too high.. He'll be 2/1.

Same figure as Elysium Fields, but EF's number has alot of wideness built into it. Not that I am touting this horse, but Hey Byrn's number two back would smoke BB and EF, but that was at a mile.

[robfla]

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.

[Borntorun]

I played Lawyer Ron in the Whitney last summer despite the wide post (#10 out of 11?) b/c he his speed figures (Beyers/Track Variants) said he could win at the distance. Is the bias vs. o/s posts at GP at 1 1/8th significantly different than Saratoga? If not, perhaps BB can get out quick enough to run three wide into the 1st turn and leave them in his dust like Lawyer Ron did in the Whitney?

I am in the top 10 in our local OTB RTD contest and would love to play vs. BB to gain points on those ahead of me, but the others I like are also in o/s posts (#s 8,9,11) and I question if #s1 or 2 will improve enough to hit the wire first.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Borntorun

I played Lawyer Ron in the Whitney last summer despite the wide post (#10 out of 11?) b/c he his speed figures (Beyers/Track Variants) said he could win at the distance. Is the bias vs. o/s posts at GP at 1 1/8th significantly different than Saratoga? If not, perhaps BB can get out quick enough to run three wide into the 1st turn and leave them in his dust like Lawyer Ron did in the Whitney?

I am in the top 10 in our local OTB RTD contest and would love to play vs. BB to gain points on those ahead of me, but the others I like are also in o/s posts (#s 8,9,11) and I question if #s1 or 2 will improve enough to hit the wire first.

That is a pretty good comparison. You get just an instant more time at Saratoga to run up, and the turn seems to be maybe a second longer at Gulfstream, but it is very close.
3 wide probably isn't realistic here, because Face The Cat, Elysium Fields, and probably BB Frank are all going to asked for position out of the gate and try to join Fierce Wind near the front. Maybe 5-7 wide and a little bit of a brush.

Originally Posted by robfla

Not too much mention of Hey Byrn. He appears to me in tip-top form, loves the track and don't underestimate his trainer who is 18% in Graded Stakes. His running style is perfect for a race like this, and having a jockey that isn't a "top name" he will be an overlay.

my tri:

9 /1,2,6,8/ all = $40
9 in the 2nd slot too.

My only knock on him is he's lazy out of the gate. And with that post it's a recipe for disaster.

[King Glorious]

Big Brown to win over Fierce Wind with a side bet on the other Zito.

[ShadowRoll]

1,2 w/ 1,2,12 w/ 1,2,4,5,8,12 = $16

Question whether Smooth Air can get the distance, but like the price.

[miraja2]

After spending the last 30 or so minutes studying these PPs I must conclude that this is one of the best G1s I can remember in recent years (in terms of a betting race, not field quality). There are a lot of interesting colts here coming off of career best performances that could take the next step and win. You have a big unknown in the South American horse, and the colt with the best speed figures parked way out there in a difficult spot.
You could make a reasonable case for a lot of these horses.

This is a fun race to look at. I still haven't made up my mind on the best way to play it yet.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

1,2 w/ 1,2,12 w/ 1,2,4,5,8,12 = $16

Question whether Smooth Air can get the distance, but like the price.

I don't think there is any way we can begin know what the price will be at this point.
It will be very interesting to see what the board looks like for this race come post time. I'm not sure what the betting public will make of Tomcito's class and/or BB's post position.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by miraja2

After spending the last 30 or so minutes studying these PPs I must conclude that this is one of the best G1s I can remember in recent years (in terms of a betting race, not field quality). There are a lot of interesting colts here coming off of career best performances that could take the next step and win. You have a big unknown in the South American horse, and the colt with the best speed figures parked way out there in a difficult spot.
You could make a reasonable case for a lot of these horses.

This is a fun race to look at. I still haven't made up my mind on the best way to play it yet.

Yeah, you can make a case to play or not play just about anybody. I rarely ever box but assuming no scratches I think I'm just going to box up Smooth Air, Fierce Wind, Tomcito, and Elysium Fields and hope for the best.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't think there is any way we can begin know what the price will be at this point.
It will be very interesting to see what the board looks like for this race come post time. I'm not sure what the betting public will make of Tomcito's class and/or BB's post position.

Tomcito's gotten a little bit of hype, with comparisons to Cannonero II, so I'm guessing he gets bet down from his morning line with people looking for the proverbial dark horse. But Tomcito seems to be a sustained runner -- he came from pretty far back to win the Nacional -- and I don't think this race sets up for him if that's true.

BB's gotten more hype than maybe any horse on the trail this year. He'll be low odds no matter what. He is, after all, the best horse Desormeaux has ever ridden.

I think it's likely that Smooth Air is at least 10-1 given, as you say, the possibility that many of these horses could move forward here, and I'm hoping he gets lost in the crowd (betting-wise). But I think Stutts has him cranked up as far as he can go at this point, and I think he'll handle the early pace just fine with something left. A 10-1 horse on top of the tri will yield a decent payout.

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Tomcito's gotten a little bit of hype, with comparisons to Cannonero II, so I'm guessing he gets bet down from his morning line with people looking for the proverbial dark horse. But Tomcito seems to be a sustained runner -- he came from pretty far back to win the Nacional -- and I don't think this race sets up for him if that's true.

BB's gotten more hype than maybe any horse on the trail this year. He'll be low odds no matter what. He is, after all, the best horse Desormeaux has ever ridden.

I think it's likely that Smooth Air is at least 10-1 given, as you say, the possibility that many of these horses could move forward here, and I'm hoping he gets lost in the crowd (betting-wise). But I think Stutts has him cranked up as far as he can go at this point, and I think he'll handle the early pace just fine with something left. A 10-1 horse on top of the tri will yield a decent payout.

I think the early pace is the main concern for Smooth Air. If he's on or near the lead it could be lights out for the rest of the field. I don't think distance limitations matter that much on this course.

[miraja2]

1,8,9 / 1,6,8,9 / 1,4,6,8,9

[Benny Leger]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i am confused by this post ? no idea where the money will go, are you kidding me ? he will be lower then 2-1, big brown is going to get pounded at the window,and he may win, but there is no value at all betting him in this spot.

12 hole is o-fer in 9f races since reconfiguration @ GP

[sumitas]

Majestic Warrior was the best 2 yr old imo. Then he got injured and his come back raised questions. But still, if he's recovered I think he can do it. WPS on MW.