Anyone See the Risen Star?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

That is so funny you mention him. Did you happen to see him open up at even money today? Quickly shot up to 2-1 and kept rising but who in the world was betting him?

Did he ever make it out of the gate?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I'm not holding the race against CQ at all.
After getting completely jammed at the rail, stopping when the jockey flew off the horse like a ragdoll (still can't believe he rode and won the next race), veered all the way outside and finished full of run tells me that he's more than just a closing sprinter. I'm not ready to proclaim him the Derby winner, but I'm not ready to toss him, either.
I was just peeved because I had CQ keyed with the 8-10-12, but didn't bet it without him involved. That was an extremely nice trifecta payout all things considered.
Anyone know where they're going to point CQ to next?

Hopefully somewhere that a loose buffalo runs across the track in front of him to give him another excuse and give all of us good odds on him for races to come.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Kind of. Off horribly and was never a factor. I just want to know who was sending it in early on him.

Yeah, I know, I saw the race and was just commenting on the bad start. No clue who bet that much early on him but it was a bad day for me and my picks being bombarded by early money and then tanking (Storm Treasure/High Heels) so I'm starting to think that early money and smart money have nothing in common.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Circular Quay off the board. Notional wins....Didn't see it.

Circular Quay was cruising in behind leaders and looked as if he would have won easy, until the horse in front of him clipped heels and went down causing Quay to swerve,he is definitly a horse to watch for the derby.

Originally Posted by Kasept

Notional waqs wonderful today Rand.. Did all O'Neill would want... Grew up a lot. Sat off while outside; moved when asked and fought for lead; looked collared and stayed on between horses before drawing off to win by a couple.

Circular Quay was down inside and marooned. Nowhere to go at the top of the stretch. As is always the problem with horses like him... Bill Kaplan's "W&CGuy" ran very nicely chasing wide and coming on late. Zanjero third but I never really "saw" what he was doing...

Don't know how far Notional wants to stretch, but he's a quality colt and all the way back to his insanely huge debut now...

O'Neill-Reddam and Bill Kaplan... 30% of the Derby field between them? Possible...

Steve watch the race again if the horse in front of Quay had not have gone down he would have made the race very interesting.On the show(ATRAB) the other day one of your guest made a statement about Con Collins being the daddy of all Irish trainers,definitly a great trainer,I have one name who is daddy of them all, not only in Ireland but possible world wide Vincent O'Brien.

I don't think CQ's backers should be jumping off the bandwagon based on the final results of the Risen Star. This could be a blessing in disguise for his future pool backers.

17-1 and probably going up after finishing off the board. There's a lot of bandwagon chasers in the future pool.

Heading into the future pool I liked Street Sense and Ravel the most, but their odds are going to make them unplayable for me in this pool. (add in the fact that I'm moving half a continent away from the track I'd have to place the future wager at and I'm sitting this future pool out)

NoBiz is a tossout for me as the likely favored singular betting interest. Too many supporters at this point, and to me he looks like a horse I'd love on an off track (Go for Gin and Halo in his pedigree), but probably try to beat as the favorite any other day.

Risen Star winner Notional looks like a steal at 37-1. There will be some late money on him I'm sure, but again the breeding doesn't insprire me for a Derby winner. He was my pick for the Risen Star, but he doesn't fit my Derby profile.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yeah.. You're definitely the Weirdo Welcome Wagon...

The evolution of Kev...GPK-> T3B-> WWW?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

I don't think CQ's backers should be jumping off the bandwagon based on the final results of the Risen Star. This could be a blessing in disguise for his future pool backers.

17-1 and probably going up after finishing off the board. There's a lot of bandwagon chasers in the future pool.

Heading into the future pool I liked Street Sense and Ravel the most, but their odds are going to make them unplayable for me in this pool. (add in the fact that I'm moving half a continent away from the track I'd have to place the future wager at and I'm sitting this future pool out)

NoBiz is a tossout for me as the likely favored singular betting interest. Too many supporters at this point, and to me he looks like a horse I'd love on an off track (Go for Gin and Halo in his pedigree), but probably try to beat as the favorite any other day.

Risen Star winner Notional looks like a steal at 37-1. There will be some late money on him I'm sure, but again the breeding doesn't insprire me for a Derby winner. He was my pick for the Risen Star, but he doesn't fit my Derby profile.

ravel certainly has the pedigree to be a derby winner-if one won it on pedigree alone! have to admit notional looks as tho he came from the wrong side of the tracks after looking over ravels...

[Travis Stone]

A drastically premature move in the Keeneland race caused Street Sense to run a low number. If he had not moved so early, and instead utilized his kick at a later time, the number would have a few points higher which then would have made his BC jump easier to afford.

Horses run their best in optimal conditions, which he had in the BC. But the way won was overpowering and until I am proven otherwise, I respect him.

As for Circular -- he was totally eliminated from yesterday's race. You have to assume he would run better with a more clear situation. He is one paced much like the horse 'Crazy I've been mentioning. I think CQ threatens third at least with a better trip. Does this make me like him in the Derby though? Absolutely not.

[Travis Stone]

Somebody also added APPEALING ZOPHIE's time comparison to this post, which is very interesting.

She did run faster than Notional, granted with a slow pace. But Notional had a fast pace to take advantage of. The filly had horses breating down her neck at numerous times in the race too.

I think in the end, however, these races will be largely inconsequential. Notional could go on, but I think the rest are in stall-mode.

[SniperSB23]

Master Command got a 110 so both Appealing Zophie and Notional should be right about 93 (they aren't any higher than that since the leaderboard cuts off at 94).

[pmayjr]

Just in case it hasn't been mentioned, the race reply is up at ESPN's Horse Racing Page now (sorry if I'm the 10th person to break the news lol).

Notional looked impressive. Eventhough there was a spill, he looked impressive.

[Cajungator26]

To avoid reading through a million threads, was Teuflesberg scratched because of post position or some other reason? Thanks...

Louisiana Derby is next for CQ..........I'm not jumping off of CQ yet.....I have this strange feeling that that Pletcher guy knows what he is talking about:

“He was flying by everybody at the end,” said Todd Pletcher, who will be Circular Quay’s trainer of record for his next start. “Obviously, we were very unlucky today, but I wouldn’t trade places with anybody now.

“There are troubled trips – but it would be hard to categorize exactly what this was today. The horse looks fine, and the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) would be likely (as a next start).”

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by deltaforce97

Louisiana Derby is next for CQ..........I'm not jumping off of CQ yet.....I have this strange feeling that that Pletcher guy knows what he is talking about:

“He was flying by everybody at the end,” said Todd Pletcher, who will be Circular Quay’s trainer of record for his next start. “Obviously, we were very unlucky today, but I wouldn’t trade places with anybody now.

“There are troubled trips – but it would be hard to categorize exactly what this was today. The horse looks fine, and the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) would be likely (as a next start).”

Well, I definitely wouldn't toss CQ based upon one bad race. I look forward to seeing him in the LA derby. I'll be there.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

To avoid reading through a million threads, was Teuflesberg scratched because of post position or some other reason? Thanks...

Hopefully common sense. Otherwise he would have been in that mess of 50-1 and 100-1 shots (that didn't belong in the race in the first place) tiring at the end that almost led to disaster. He can be a good sprinter and maybe will be able to stretch out as he gets older but he is absolutely not a Derby prospect. The owners should be thrilled on getting a horse like him for $7,000 instead of being hellbent on destroying him in the quest for the Derby.

[Samarta]

Originally Posted by T3B

I could single handidly be the most aggresive, confrontational poster you know...

If you think he is an aggressive confrontational poster, you wait til he defends his DT Tootsie Roll title.....I think he could win in a walkover this year....

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

The evolution of Kev...GPK-> T3B-> WWW?

LOL, great post Bigsmc!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by deltaforce97

“He was flying by everybody at the end,” said Todd Pletcher, who will be Circular Quay’s trainer of record for his next start. “Obviously, we were very unlucky today, but I wouldn’t trade places with anybody now.

First of all, he was NOT " flying by everybody "...he picked up the dead mediocrities that tired from the pace and a couple other stragglers. The logical horses finished one-two-three and well in front of Circular Quay...but apparently they were not part of the " everybody " that Todd saw in the race. But, as if that statement wasn't a big enough falsehood, it was followed by the insipid " I wouldn't trade places with anybody ". Perhaps not in life, but he would trade Circular Quay even up for NoBiz and Street Sense most assuredly.

Look, Pletcher is right that it's a difficult trip to categorize, and it's impossible to know how he would have done had he gotten clear of trouble, but the fact remains that Circular Quay still has not proven an ability to run particularly well going both a route of ground and two turns. In fact, there is mounting evidence that he can't and that is what he now must disprove. No amount of " trainerspeak " can change that.

CQ dragged johhny v up to the back of the pack....he was nowhere near letting him loose...If CQ had room and kicked like he did in EVERY other race he has been in then he would have won...this race is a TOTAL toss out...if you dont think so you need to have the race played on a 100 inch screen or something so you can see what happened. I would compare this AWFUL trip to 3 horses being taken out by Landseer in the 2002 BC Mile. I would also like to point out that after CQ dodged a bullet Johnny V did not go right to work on him.....he took caution and made sure that CQ was ok before he let him loose.