Two at Toga (2025) - Page 5

theguarantee · #81 07-26-2025, 03:15 PM

Best Bet: Race 12 #10 Hedge the Risk 9/2
Best Value: Race 11 #1 Night Jasmine 6/1

moses · #82 07-26-2025, 04:54 PM

Sovereignty has single handedly cost me a few thousand dollars this year. But damn, gotta respect the horse.

moses · #83 07-26-2025, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Swing and a miss. Disappointed neither of these hit but more disappointed that I showed no discipline and spent way too much money on this card

$120.00 wagered
$209.10 returned

Saturday.

Race 9. Lake George. #3 Daisy Flyer, 12/1. Obviously, Classic Q is the one to beat here but a few things going against her. The course may not be as speed friendly, she has to go further, and while there isn’t much pace signed on, I think you’ll see a little more pace pressure in a bigger field. Daisy Flyer has already beaten Classic Q, and that was on the speed friendly Gulfstream turf course (though CQ was not up front that day). I loved how she got into stride in the lane and think if she gets any pace at all to run at, she could be flying late and beat them all here. She needs to get faster from last out but she’s been away for a few months and it would be no surprise if she’s developed since we last saw her.

Race 10. Jim Dandy. #1 Baeza, 3/1. If I can get 3/1 on him, I’ll be happy. Sovereignty is obviously the best horse in this race but you’ve got to think Bill Mott is looking toward the Travers and won’t lose sleep with a 2nd place finish here. Baeza gets Berrios back and should get the perfect trip just behind Mo Plex.

Daisy Flyer just got up. Baeza ran his heart out but wasn’t good enough. $26.70 total back for them.

$128.00 wagered
$235.80 returned

Sunday. Rain in the forecast.

Race 4. #3 Handsome Pants, 8/1. I view Bestfriend Rocket, Georgia Magic, and Handsome Pants all similarly and think one of them is the winner. Handsome Pants will be twice the price of the other two so I’ll take a swing with him. Yes, the pace sets up for Just Licorice but I’m not really worried about him.

Race 6. #3 Solo Jim, 8/1. Solo Jim adds blinkers and gets Johnny V aboard. Looking for an aggressive ride out of this one and I don’t see why he can’t improve enough off his debut to win this one.

(Note: I edited these picks today. I originally had Immensitude in the Glen Falls but I watched replays and really don’t want to bet against Bellezza there.)

moses · #84 07-26-2025, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 12 #10 Hedge the Risk 9/2
Best Value: Race 11 #1 Night Jasmine 6/1

Nice call in the finale. I foolishly tossed that horse.

theguarantee · #85 Yesterday, 02:58 PM

7/27:

Best Bet: Race 7 #6 Bellezza 5/2 - Didn't love a ton on this card so rather than force a longshot I'll just take a horse I think is a likely winner and if the ML holds is fair value to me.

Best Value: Race 10 $13 Salvation 6/1 - This is kind of an interesting race still and I was initially leaning toward Ennis Town but I wonder if that one might end up taking some steam and I just don't know that I fully trust it...Salvation just feels well placed here, won't take the Irad money the other Linda will (I would think)...is probably the fastest horse coming in...and while maybe lacks the upside of some of the others like Iron Sight and Prove, if they were really going to jump in with big efforts would they be in here? Maybe, but I think Salvation will get a nice trip from the outside post with some tactical speed and should hopefully get first run,

moses · #86 Yesterday, 03:44 PM

$136.00 wagered
$243.90 returned

$8.10 for Solo Jim who ran 2nd.

Really frustrated today as I had a couple longshots come out in horizontals but didn’t include La Mahena there in Race 7 so my mid Pick 5 and Late Pick 5 are toast.

Sethcarter · #87 Yesterday, 05:08 PM

Toga.. Race 10 going with the speed...

50 wp 1

moses · #88 Yesterday, 05:14 PM

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