Thank You Mine That Bird

[ELA]

Birdstone broke his maiden at the Spa, and I think it was in the mud.

What about the Travers? Fast track?

Eric

[ELA]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Didn't Birdstone win the Travers in an absolute deluge?

He did. I think that the PP's will still show a fast track. It didn't start pouring until after the race, but I think the track was off before and during. After the race, I saw an ark float by.

Eric

[blackthroatedwind]

Let's remember who said here that Birdstone didn't like the mud.

However, the confusion probably stems from the Lane's End, or whatever it was called that year, at Turfway, where they sealed the track shortly before the race.....and Birdstone ran poorly. I believe Nick was publically unhappy about them sealing the track before a big race.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Birdstone broke his maiden in the slop in Aug of his 2 yr season at the 'Toga. He rolled home, like 10-12 lengths. I actually witnessed it in person.

maybe zito was just pissed that they sealed it that day birdstone ran up the track. i believe that was the case...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let's remember who said here that Birdstone didn't like the mud.

However, the confusion probably stems from the Lane's End, or whatever it was called that year, at Turfway, where they sealed the track shortly before the race.....and Birdstone ran poorly. I believe Nick was publically unhappy about them sealing the track before a big race.

and ya beat me to it...i think they held off sealing it til just beforehand. seems like the skies kept getting darker and darker. i know zito was incredibly angry about it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Birdstone broke his maiden in the slop in Aug of his 2 yr season at the 'Toga. He rolled home, like 10-12 lengths. I actually witnessed it in person.

I was there that day as well. Not exactly slop though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4N9rcZpVEI

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Friesan Fire is a phony who's had easy trips in slow paced races - and there was a good chance another great hate of mine for this race - turned somehow my pick -Dunkirk would get his education and run lousy.

How did the Beyer figures fail? Are they supposed to have Mine That Bird running a 110 in his two losses at Sunland?

By far and away the two genuine real horses were both injured. They were supposed to beat this field to a pulp if they ran.

We touched on this in a thread you started 2 weeks ago in I believe titled synthetic converter, regardless with synthetic surfaces assigning and comparing numbers to horses that run on diifferent surfaces is not be as accurate(I use that word tepidly) as when horses used to race exclusively on dirt. Theoretically Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Papa Clem would have been the most logical Beyer finish, but it didn't happen, then I don't understand why we should say IWR, QR and Old Fashioned I am assuming he is the third horse would have been 1-1A-3 today if they ran.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let's remember who said here that Birdstone didn't like the mud.

However, the confusion probably stems from the Lane's End, or whatever it was called that year, at Turfway, where they sealed the track shortly before the race.....and Birdstone ran poorly. I believe Nick was publically unhappy about them sealing the track before a big race.

Was it Birdstone or another one of Nick's who threw a shoe?

Eric

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

We touched on this in a thread you started 2 weeks ago in I believe titled sythetic converter, regardless with synthetic surfaces assigning and comparing numbers to horses that run on diifferent surfaces is not be as accurate(I use that word tepidly) as when horses used to race exclusively on dirt. Theoretically Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Papa Clem would have been the most logical Beyer finish, but it didn't happen, then I don't understand why we should say IWR, QR and Old Fashioned I am assuming he is the third horse would have been 1-1A-3 today if they ran.

anyone looking to explain the finish today is up against it. this race is an aberration. no one, in a million years, would have ever come up with mine that bird as the winner today. no way, no how. it happens sometimes that a horse runs well for whatever reason. off track could explain the results of todays race. that alone may not be the reason-hell, there may be no reason. just like there's no reason a 100-1 shot won the travers, or a horse like seek gold or colonial colony wins a gr 1. or black seventeen winning for that matter... folks take an odd result as gospel and bet a horse like mad the next time out. and the next...and so on. some times you have an inexplicable result, today being one of those times. several belmonts in recent memory are others.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by CSC

In the end wasn't today a day where we should be discussing how the Beyers figures failed in predicting this derby? Frankly I was surprised how badly Dunkirk and Friesan Fire ran today.

I'm not sure whether the beyers failed as poorly as any other method of handicapping but I would like to know why this crop WAS considered eons stronger than last year's before the Derby and after today I read descriptions of "mediocrity" right and left.
Obviously QR And IWR are nice horses so besides them who makes this crop so much stronger than last years crop if the remaining runners in today's race are mediocre?

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I was there that day as well. Not exactly slop though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4N9rcZpVEI

You and your fancy video technology...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'm not sure whether the beyers failed as poorly as any other method of handicapping but I would like to know why this crop WAS considered eons stronger than last year's before the Derby and after today I read descriptions of "mediocrity" right and left.
Obviously QR And IWR are nice horses so besides them who makes this crop so much stronger than last years crop if the remaining runners in today's race are mediocre?

two nice horses would definitely be stronger than what we had last year as far as three year olds. but we have three at least, counting rachel. still plenty of time left to see how things go...
but today's derby was a lackluster event compared to what we were facing just a week or two ago.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ELA

Was it Birdstone or another one of Nick's who threw a shoe?

Eric

I think it was The Cliff's Edge in the Derby.

Don't horses throw shoes all the time?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Theoretically Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and Papa Clem would have been the most logical Beyer finish, but it didn't happen, then I don't understand why we should say IWR, QR and Old Fashioned I am assuming he is the third horse would have been 1-2-3 today if they ran.

A Speed figure - if accurate - only tells you how fast a horse ran final time wise given the inherent speed of the race track.

IWR and QR ran extremely fast races without smoke and mirorrs. Genuine great performances.

FF had one perfect trip after another. I liked Pioneer of the Nile better than him and picked him above FF. And even though FF's form is overrated he ran way too bad to be believed today. Something happened.

Dunkirk figured to get his education today - and I certainly don't believe he's as much horse as Quaility Road right now. He ran too bad to be true and will bounce back as well.

[peetsa]

Originally Posted by ELA

Was it Birdstone or another one of Nick's who threw a shoe?

Eric

Birdstone threw a shoe in the Derby and still finished 8th. He also won the Travers on a surface much like Churchill was today.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think it was The Cliff's Edge in the Derby.

Don't horses throw shoes all the time?

Both of them did.

One lost two shoes the other just one.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think it was The Cliff's Edge in the Derby.

Don't horses throw shoes all the time?

i think it was devils bag that threw two in a race, and won anyway. then he ran again, and threw one, and won. i figured they should just pull them for good and let him have at it, but they never did.

I am still puzzled why no one had posted there
were only two good horses this year. And since
they both would not be running, the Derby would
be awful.

Weather...
A huge silly afterthought.

The winner would have gotten em
on any surface since he won so easily.
We will of course see
this two weeks from now.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by peetsa

Birdstone threw a shoe in the Derby and still finished 8th.

i threw a shoe at my husband, but he didn't run a step.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

anyone looking to explain the finish today is up against it. this race is an aberration. no one, in a million years, would have ever come up with mine that bird as the winner today. no way, no how. it happens sometimes that a horse runs well for whatever reason. off track could explain the results of todays race. that alone may not be the reason-hell, there may be no reason. just like there's no reason a 100-1 shot won the travers, or a horse like seek gold or colonial colony wins a gr 1. or black seventeen winning for that matter... folks take an odd result as gospel and bet a horse like mad the next time out. and the next...and so on. some times you have an inexplicable result, today being one of those times. several belmonts in recent memory are others.

A bigger mystery is how he went off at only 50-1, as if we had enough of derby myths, no dirt wins, gelding, 81 beyer top, no name trainer(never heard of the guy until today), obviously someone bet him, should have been 100-1.

Would have thrown in the 2 prep rule but that has long been debunked.