3/28 (GP): Florida Derby (G1); Swale (G2); Appleton (G3) - Page 5

Travis Stone · #81 03-28-2009, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I thought the track was significantly more speed-favoring on Holy Bull day. The inside was certainly good, but the inside is good at GP quite often.

If Dunkirk apologists are blaming the track, that's fine, more power to them.

NT

If both were in the Derby right now, I would probably have to take Dunkirk. For one the Derby pace is going to be much quicker, and Dunkirk's price will probably be a bit higher than their separation in ability.

Dunkirk ran a really good race today - we've said all year how hard it is to close at Gulfstream. He's a very nice race horse. Quality Road is too.

philcski · #82 03-28-2009, 08:44 PM

Pletcher should be whining to Gulfstream about cutting the purse to $750k from a million. That additional $50k will probably be the difference between being on the right side and the wrong side of the cut line.

NTamm1215 · #83 03-28-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If both were in the Derby right now, I would probably have to take Dunkirk. For one the Derby pace is going to be much quicker, and Dunkirk's price will probably be a bit higher than their separation in ability.

Dunkirk ran a really good race today - we've said all year how hard it is to close at Gulfstream. He's a very nice race horse. Quality Road is too.

Not happening. The Derby pace is not going to be much quicker than today's pace was, souped up track and all.

Predicting the pace in the Derby is a dangerous game anyway because many people thought the 2004 pace would preclude Smarty Jones from getting a good stalking trip. Quality Road has proven twice now that he can sit just off of a fast pace and finish well. What about that would make anyone not like him in a race like the Derby? He's also maturing with each start and has learned to rate nicely.

Considering Dunkirk won't be in the Derby at this moment, I'd have to see what he does in his final prep if he's in the gate on May 2.

NT

mbahadur · #84 03-28-2009, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Exactly. Pletcher could have showed a little more class. Why didn't he run in the Wood to begin with??

It would have been just as difficult to win the Wood (which has the same $750K purse as the Fla Derby) with I Want Revenge in there as it would have been the Florida Derby. On HRTV before the race, when asked about the comparison to Big Brown going into the Florida Derby last year, Jeff Siegel stated that this was a much tougher field than Big Brown had to face.

The $1 million Arkansas Derby may have been a good fit for Dunkirk's running style if Pletcher could have waited 2 more weeks (second in the Arkansas Derby is also worth more than second in the Fla Derby).

Travis Stone · #85 03-28-2009, 09:21 PM

If one is 8-1, the other is 4-1... no thanks. But, depending on what happens out west, there's a chance Dunkirk will be fourth, fifth and maybe even sixth choice. Last year they were 13-1, 17-1, 19-1... Dunkirk at 19-1, versus QR at say 3-1... makes it interesting from a value standpoint. Interesting discussion too for a horse currently not in the race.

Travis Stone · #86 03-28-2009, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mbahadur

The $1 million Arkansas Derby may have been a good fit for Dunkirk's running style if Pletcher could have waited 2 more weeks (second in the Arkansas Derby is also worth more than second in the Fla Derby).

Not an easy track to close on... and right now there isn't loads of speed in Arkansas. Silver City is not going... so it's Papa Clem and who else on the front?

ELA · #87 03-28-2009, 09:35 PM

Pletcher was disappointed. He was interviewed right there, on the spot, that moment. With everything considered, and of course his horse got beat fairly easily as well, emotion is going to come into play. No matter how he got beat, he got beat and Pletcher would be disappointed. Easy to understand.

As far as the Derby goes, if they want to try and get in -- rushing, pushing the envelope, etc. -- if that's the price they want to pay, they will pay it.

Eric

Danzig · #88 03-28-2009, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELA

Pletcher was disappointed. He was interviewed right there, on the spot, that moment. With everything considered, and of course his horse got beat fairly easily as well, emotion is going to come into play. No matter how he got beat, he got beat and Pletcher would be disappointed. Easy to understand.

As far as the Derby goes, if they want to try and get in -- rushing, pushing the envelope, etc. -- if that's the price they want to pay, they will pay it.

Eric

none of the horses seem to have much bottom going in these days. i don't think it would be much of a stretch to run dunkirk. it's not as tho the rest of the field is going in with double-digit starts anymore.

ELA · #89 03-28-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

none of the horses seem to have much bottom going in these days. i don't think it would be much of a stretch to run dunkirk. it's not as tho the rest of the field is going in with double-digit starts anymore.

Yes, I'll agree. You can look to Big Brown, Curlin, etc. OK. So, what are they going to do here, run again to get in? Which race? I just don't see it. I think people will debate it all day, but the bottom line is that he didn't do enough to get in. With Big Brown, simply put, he won it so it was clear cut. Curlin -- he had a G3 and a G2 in his last two starts before the Derby.

Regardless, I see your point. I just don't see Dunkirk doing anything but sitting on the bubble and waiting. If he gets in, sure he'll run, but I don't see it being the ideal, far from it.

Eric

Kasept · #90 03-28-2009, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELA

Pletcher was disappointed. He was interviewed right there, on the spot, that moment. With everything considered, and of course his horse got beat fairly easily as well, emotion is going to come into play. No matter how he got beat, he got beat and Pletcher would be disappointed. Easy to understand.

As far as the Derby goes, if they want to try and get in -- rushing, pushing the envelope, etc. -- if that's the price they want to pay, they will pay it.

Eric

Eric,

Does that also excuse his berating Gulfstream President Bill Murphy?

I guess this was the first 'big day' track Todd Pletcher ever ran horses on, so we should all sympathize.

They press any further with Dunkirk and they'll be no Dunkirk. He was already noticeably thin and wan...

justindew · #91 03-28-2009, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Eric,

Does that also excuse his berating Gulfstream President Bill Murphy?

I guess this was the first 'big day' track Todd Pletcher ever ran horses on, so we should all sympathize.

They press any further with Dunkirk and they'll be no Dunkirk. He was already noticeably thin and wan...

Steve, come on. Three track records? (Edit: or maybe just two)

However, if your analysis of him looking less than 100% is on the money, then I'd have to agree that pushing on is a bad decision. I had heard he looked like a million bucks.

ELA · #92 03-28-2009, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Eric,

Does that also excuse his berating Gulfstream President Bill Murphy?

I guess this was the first 'big day' track Todd Pletcher ever ran horses on, so we should all sympathize.

They press any further with Dunkirk and they'll be no Dunkirk. He was already noticeably thin and wan...

Also? Steve, I didn't defend what Pletcher said. It just didn't surprise me. In addition, I didn't say anyone should sympathize with Pletcher. I just think it's very easy to understand him being disappointed.

Pletcher's a big boy, playing in the big leagues and if someone in the media wants to "call him out" so to speak regarding these comments, they will. Were there some excuses here? Sure. Like I said, he was disappointed. His horse got beat. Period.

Eric

Scav · #93 03-28-2009, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Was it really a surprise the track was like that? When is a track not souped up on a big day? But, I wouldn't focus on the "track records" too much. Aren't the new records only since the track was reconfigured? So we are only looking at a few years worth of races to compare. But, also aren't a majority of track records more an indication of the track, then who is doing the running?

Exactly

justindew · #94 03-28-2009, 11:02 PM

Hey, I only see two track records. Where is the third?

The Indomitable DrugS · #95 03-28-2009, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Was it really a surprise the track was like that? When is a track not souped up on a big day?

It was very dull on Sunshine Millions day .. which I believe is GP's second biggest day.

This One's For Phil and You Luckie Mann were the only two horses who ran a respectable final time that day. YLM hasn't even had a single workout since that race ... I'm assuming he also suffered a stall injury from the stress of that performance.

I have no problem with how fast they make the track ... I personally prefer to see lightning fast race tracks ... I think horses of all running styles handle them better and races are run truer to form - but all I want them to do is to do the best they can at keeping the track consistant throughout the day so that you can do a proper job of analyzing the races afterwards without all kinds of guess work.

prudery · #96 03-28-2009, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Eric,

Does that also excuse his berating Gulfstream President Bill Murphy?

I guess this was the first 'big day' track Todd Pletcher ever ran horses on, so we should all sympathize.

They press any further with Dunkirk and they'll be no Dunkirk. He was already noticeably thin and wan...

Childish and unsporting behavior from Pletcher to be sure . Churchill soups for the Derby as well ... I think he was cheesed off about scratchin the rabbit ...

Nice catch on Dunkirk's appearance---it has not been brought up much .

I thought he looked like a skinny filly coming down the stretch, and Kate Moss when they hosed him down--too bloody frail and tucked up .

Not an animal you would expect to have the physical reserves/resources to be bound for the classics ...

The Indomitable DrugS · #97 03-29-2009, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You know what I'm saying. I don't mind a lightning fast, FAIR surface. But generally, don't you expect the surface on the big days to be quicker than usual?

Was there any doubt after the first today? Which by the way, was a super performance by Just Ben I thought. I loved his dam when she was running.

Yeah - Chip was nice ... and yeah ... on the biggest days ... the track is typically made very fast.

Every year going back almost as far as I can remember people complain about it at the Derby. Yet, you have had 7 of the last 12 Derby winners take the Preakness ... and of the 12 only Monarchos and Barbaro missed the board in the Preakness. You've had a wide variety of successful running styles as well...and considering the massive field size - you've had more fairly run races than you'd expect. I never got the complaining.

Antitrust32 · #98 03-29-2009, 01:10 AM

It doesnt bother me if Pletcher complains... who cares really.. its fucl<ing horse racing. But he has a heck of a horse and it will really upset me if some euro piece of trash who won some stupid race gets in before just him.

He can win the Derby as easily as the other few good horses this year.

This was a good race and I'm happy to see some quality horses after last year....

Bigsmc · #99 03-29-2009, 06:51 AM

I haven't read all of the threads yet, but no love for Big Drama (so far)?

I thought that was pretty impressive off the layoff. Fawkes is doing some fine work with this horse.

Kasept · #**100** 03-29-2009, 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELA

Also? Steve, I didn't defend what Pletcher said. It just didn't surprise me. In addition, I didn't say anyone should sympathize with Pletcher. I just think it's very easy to understand him being disappointed.

Pletcher's a big boy, playing in the big leagues and if someone in the media wants to "call him out" so to speak regarding these comments, they will. Were there some excuses here? Sure. Like I said, he was disappointed. His horse got beat. Period.

Eric

His grousing was laughable. He's supposed to be the "ulimate professional horse trainer", and if that's the case, you acknowledge the winner and move on. During the 'vintage' Pletcher era, Dunkirk may have been ready to run a third big race in a relatively short time... Alas, those halcyon days are gone. The salad days as it were... Maybe DougS can pull the info up, but I'd guess that Pletcher has benefitted dozens of times from 'big day' racetracks when his horses would 're-break' at the top of the stretch and power away from fields. (Remember all those 4-5 winners that have largely disappeared from his shed?) Didn't hear him whine like a 4 year old about those surfaces.