Strong Pretender Excuses Thread

[SniperSB23]

Here you go, let the excuses begin for Strong Pretender. I'll give you some ideas. The distance was too short. He wasn't cranked up for a big effort. Oh wait, here's a good one. How about the horse just isn't that fast and was hopelessly overrated by a 32 point Beyer adjustment in the Dwyer.

[randallscott35]

He ran terribly. There is no excuse. He didn't run a lick.

[Slewstoo]

That was ugly.

By the way, who the hell is Chatain?

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Slewstoo

That was ugly.

By the way, who the hell is Chatain?

By Forest Wildcat out of a Red Ransom mare-- only loss in a NW1X to Showing Up in March. Huge NW1X score last out in Jersey.

[Slewstoo]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

By Forest Wildcat out of a Red Ransom mare-- only loss in a NW1X to Showing Up in March. Huge NW1X score last out in Jersey.

Thanks, maybe he'll be one to watch moving forward.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Slewstoo

Thanks, maybe he'll be one to watch moving forward.

Haven't watched today's race yet, liked Sweetnorthernsaint -- but Chatain had room for improvement off the layoff and being very lightly raced could still be any kind with the talent he showed early in the career.

[Jax Cajun]

They're going to say Strong Contender wasn't ready, that he's a big colt, and needs more time to "get things going." Well, he ran horribly, and I wouldn't even consider the race as a paid workout...because he ran too slow!!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Here you go, let the excuses begin for Strong Pretender. I'll give you some ideas. The distance was too short. He wasn't cranked up for a big effort. Oh wait, here's a good one. How about the horse just isn't that fast and was hopelessly overrated by a 32 point Beyer adjustment in the Dwyer.

Where is your Sweetnorthernsaint excuse thread? U did rate him as the fourth best older male in the country.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Where is your Sweetnorthernsaint excuse thread? U did rate him as the fourth best older male in the country.

Well SNS certainly did not look his best, but he at least hit the board and seemed vaguely interested in the race. Strong Contender never lifted his feet off the ground.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Where is your Sweetnorthernsaint excuse thread? U did rate him as the fourth best older male in the country.

At this point he has as good of a claim on that spot as anybody. Behind Invasor, Premium Tap, and Discreet Cat it is a pretty wide open division. He ran a close third while sitting fairly close to a very fast first six furlongs. I suppose I could move Lava Man ahead of him but he will likely stick to the turf this year which moves him down on a list of older routing dirt males. Here was the list from a couple days ago for anyone who cares:

1. Invasor
2. Premium Tap
3. Discreet Cat
4. Sweetnorthernsaint
5. Lava Man
6. Sun King
7. Jazil
8. Brother Derek
9. Lawyer Ron
10. Magna Graduate


Honorable mention: Steppenwolfer, Corinthian

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

...Corinthian

This horse probably isn't in the top 100.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

This horse probably isn't in the top 100.

It is quite possible that he won't be. I put him and Steppenwolfer as honorable mention since they are two of my favorite horses in training but I'm realistic enough about them to not put them in my top ten.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Where is your Sweetnorthernsaint excuse thread? U did rate him as the fourth best older male in the country.

If you call being 3W the whole race, making a good middle move, in a race with a fast time, where the horse isn't 100% cranked an excuse, then here it is.

[blackthroatedwind]

I am referring to Strong Contender.....


It is well worth watching the replay of his trip. His trip was lousy and whether or not he had a shot going into the race he certainly had none given his trip.

I put little to no stock in what Donna Ward said after the race, but he gets shut off about 100 yards into the race and completely loses any decent position. To me this is the biggest trouble many horses have in races....something happens early in the race that causes them to be at a tactical disadvantage through no fault of their own. This is what happened to Sweetnorthernsaint in the Derby ( in a somewhat more extreme example ) and this is what happened to Strong Contender Saturday.

After getting shut off back to last he finally pecked his way to the two path and finally the rail as the field went into the turn. Unless the rail is golden, and there is a far bigger argument that it was NOT the place to be, this is not a good spot to commence a rally. Finally when they came into the stretch he had to extracate himself and was forced to continue to go very wide in order to get outside Rehoboth. I doubt Prado was overly concerned at this point because he obviously wasn't having an impact on the race.

It's also worth noting that nobody gained any significant ground in the race as the first three finishers were up close and among the top four basically the whole way. Thus, all in all, Strong Contender had an impossible trip and did reasonably well to run fifth. Whether or not this will move him up enough to be competitive for the Donn remains to be seen as even off his best races he would need to step up his game to beat either Premium Tap or Invasor should they show.

Look, he's a talented horse, probably not as talented as some think, and certainly not trained by someone I have a great deal of faith in. I am not inclined, at least at this point, to be overly optimistic about his chances in a month but there is no doubt to any unbiased observer that his trip on Saturday was not good and he ran fairly well all things considered.

[Danzig]

hey, we all know strong contender could come back and win his next. now, if he keeps running races like his last, then yes, call him overrated or a goat, etc etc. one race doesn't tell the tale. sometimes a couple doesn't. there were thousands of horses between colin and personal ensign. there will be thousands more before the next perfect horse comes along. meantime, we'll just have to settle for mere mortals.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

hey, we all know strong contender could come back and win his next. now, if he keeps running races like his last, then yes, call him overrated or a goat, etc etc. one race doesn't tell the tale. sometimes a couple doesn't. there were thousands of horses between colin and personal ensign. there will be thousands more before the next perfect horse comes along. meantime, we'll just have to settle for mere mortals.

The point is, however, that he didn't run badly at all Saturday if you carefully watch the replay....especially the head-on. A clean trip, with a little improvement, will give him a very good chance to be competitive against Saturday's group in the future.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The point is, however, that he didn't run badly at all Saturday if you carefully watch the replay....especially the head-on. A clean trip, with a little improvement, will give him a very good chance to be competitive against Saturday's group in the future.

right

some horses run well off a layoff, some don't. tough crowd here to say after one race what type of horse he is....or jazil for that matter.
i mean, come on, did anyone really and truly think jaz would win that race?! well....i guess according to the odds, they did. a fool and his money

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He ran a monster race no doubt. When I saw Dominguez pumping around the turn I thought he was done, and he battled all the way tp the wire. But his trip was pretty ideal. He sat second just off the 99-1 pace setter and had first run on everyone. I don't doubt at all that he wasn't cranked and respect Trombetta as a trainer, but if I could get his trip everytime on a horse I bet I would be happy.

Watch the head on again DaHoss. He was more like 5w on the backstretch becuase the 2 was about 2-3 paths off the rail, while Chaitian got a great trip sitting about 2w the whole race. Chaitan beat him by about 1.25 lengths, and SNS finished up very strong. SNS is not a one turn horse, he is a two turn speed horse that rates REAL well. I am actually pretty surprised by the amount that Ramon gets into him. I would much rather have Kent on him in the Sunshine Millions, but I doubt that is going to happen.

I am actually worried that he ran TOO HUGE in this race and it could have knocked him out a little bit for the Sunshine Millions. His TG number is going to be monsterous. I am guessing it might be better then Chaitan's

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Scav

Watch the head on again DaHoss. He was more like 5w on the backstretch becuase the 2 was about 2-3 paths off the rail, while Chaitian got a great trip sitting about 2w the whole race. Chaitan beat him by about 1.25 lengths, and SNS finished up very strong. SNS is not a one turn horse, he is a two turn speed horse that rates REAL well. I am actually pretty surprised by the amount that Ramon gets into him. I would much rather have Kent on him in the Sunshine Millions, but I doubt that is going to happen.

I am actually worried that he ran TOO HUGE in this race and it could have knocked him out a little bit for the Sunshine Millions. His TG number is going to be monsterous. I am guessing it might be better then Chaitan's

Seriously?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Seriously?

Yes, he is riding well so far at Gulfstream.....As I have said about Kent, he has balls the size of basketballs. That I at least respect and for every hole that he gets shut out of, he gets through a couple that produce good winners. At least he tries those holes (many wouldn't even try and would rather stay 6w and run 5th on the best horse), and for that I trust my money on him