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#61
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![]() Sir Greeley is often in spots where you would expect him to win but seldom gets it done. At least he isnt exactly facing monsters here. Strong Contender and SNS arent exactly the next comings of Cigar and Skip Away.
I guess there are worst stabs but demand 5/1 on him. |
#62
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![]() It would be fine with me if he was a solid GIII horse....theres no shame in winning $100k races!
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#63
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![]() I'll never forgive him for being beaten by Voodoo in last the Fall Highweight!
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#64
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#65
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![]() It's a shame that I like Strong Contender so much, because I have to root for Sir Greeley. Third off a lay off, and Johnny V driving..lets bring this one home!
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#66
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![]() I see Strong Contender as being a horse that will drastically improve from his three year old year to his four year old year. He had a rough trip in the Haskell to finish a respectable third, and beat Lawyer Ron, who is a very nice Grade II animal, in the Super Derby.
I think it will prove to be a smart move by Ward in having skipped the TC and BC races this year. As for Lawyer Ron, if they didn't retire him (don't know; I've not been keeping up with the news as I should lately), they need to turn him into a miler. He will never be able to get the classic distances. |
#67
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#68
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![]() Forgot to mention that the 3 blind mice upstairs called right away on the phone and demanded an explanation from Arroyo...They were satisfied with his explanation. Even held his irons up in the air for them to see...
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#69
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![]() Thanks a lot...I really appreciate the explanation.
Makes perfect sense. I had the double with him to the second winner who paid 20-1. |
#70
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--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#71
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I'm not surprised as I disagree with most of what you post. It's not really an opinion...it's just math. Either you understand this or you don't. |
#72
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![]() Quote:
What's really silly is to even suggest that it is "just math". There's a huge opinion component. The opinion has to do with (1) exactly how good Strong Contender is now, (2) what is his upside, (3) how good is the competition, (4) what's the chance Strong Contender gets injured, (5) what's the chance Invasor is retired or injured, and much more! If you think that's all "just math", then well, please tell me those numbers. by the way, I'm sorry you disagree with most of what I post. I happen to like (and agree with) the vast majority of your posts. --Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson |
#73
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![]() Sorry....that was unfair.
I'm just worn out from this argument. I happen to think it is HIGHLY likely that Strong Contendor will be in the 10-1 range in at least two Grade 1s this year. Yes, I understand the injury, or " I'm John Ward and I don't run my horses ", factor but this horse has remained sound and seems to have been pointed for a 4YO campaign. I think mathematically making him 5-1 to win a Grade 1 this year is hardly a stretch. And by the way, not that you have said this, but I am not necessarily saying I expect him to, I just think those are the fair odds of it happening. Truthfully, if anything, I think he may be more likely. |
#74
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![]() Sir Greeley has run 19 times and the highest level he's ever won at is grade three. He's been out of the money in nine of his 19 starts.
Strong Contender has run seven times and has won twice at the grade two level. He's never been out of the money in his life. With Sir Greeley, u know what u are going to get. Strong Contender clearly has more upside potential. That is not to say that he will REACH that potential but it's there. What is pretty safe to assume is that Sir Greeley won't win a grade one. It's doubtful that he'll even win a grade two. Strong Contender may not win a grade one either. But I'd say that the chances of it happening are significantly better than they are for Sir Greeley. Personally, I think he's twice the horse that Sir Greeley is. I can easily see a scenario this year where Invasor and Discreet Cat are on the sidelines after running in Dubai and the door is left open for some horses that otherwise might not have won some big races to do so. Sort of like what happened a couple of years ago when that sorry nag who's name escapes me won the Pimlico Special in the slop but was otherwise, a second rate horse. Eddington is his name.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#75
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![]() Sir Greeley has run 19 times and the highest level he's ever won at is grade three. He's been out of the money in nine of his 19 starts.
Strong Contender has run seven times and has won twice at the grade two level. He's never been out of the money in his life. With Sir Greeley, u know what u are going to get. Strong Contender clearly has more upside potential. That is not to say that he will REACH that potential but it's there. What is pretty safe to assume is that Sir Greeley won't win a grade one. It's doubtful that he'll even win a grade two. Strong Contender may not win a grade one either. But I'd say that the chances of it happening are significantly better than they are for Sir Greeley. Personally, I think he's twice the horse that Sir Greeley is. I can easily see a scenario this year where Invasor and Discreet Cat are on the sidelines after running in Dubai and the door is left open for some horses that otherwise might not have won some big races to do so. Sort of like what happened a couple of years ago when that sorry nag who's name escapes me won the Pimlico Special in the slop but was otherwise, a second rate horse. Eddington is his name.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine |
#76
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![]() I guess Sir Greeley's race to win is this weekend while the other 2 horses will probably use this as a prep to the Donn. That said, Sir Greeley often finds ways to lose races. From a betting perspective though, if Sir Greeley hovers around 5/1 I think he may be the best value bet in the race. He is the horse who will most relish this distance and lets face it, the other two arent going to kill themselves to win it. They may be that much better on talent alone, but is that enough to beat Sir Greeley, who isnt exactly a slouch? Tough race, a good one to watch.
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#77
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#78
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#79
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#80
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You think Sir Greeley will be making 12-15 starts a year? How many, pray tell, did this running machine make last year? |