Lukas down to 40 horses

[cakes44]

I don't need a trainer's license to know that every time I bet one of his horses(or even just watch), the horse runs like a scalded dog either on the lead or pressing for most of the race, then folds up like a cheap suit at the quarter pole. His horses are rarely in the shape they need to be in order to win whatever races they are entered, and almost none of them know how to relax, whether they are trained that way, or the jockey is instructed that way by DWL.

I got into a group who owned part of a Lukas horse three years ago and we had absolutely no problem finding insurance for the horse. There is much more that goes into insuring a horse than just who the trainer is. I am neutral on Lukas. He has done some good for the sport and he has done some bad for the sport.

When a big time owner buys a horse and sends it to Lukas, they expect the horse to compete at the top. That is why you see so many of his horses in over their head. I think it is a combination of Lukas and the owner's expectations.

As far as breakdowns....well you can make numbers say what you want. The more horses you have in training the more that are going to breakdown. You also have to keep in mind that Lukas was the main trainer for Overbrooke who race offspring of Storm Cat. Everyone knows you cant keep them healthy no matter what. What would be interesting is to see how many of his breakdowns came from the Storm Cat family.

As far as Lukas not turning horses out, well that is semi-right. He is old school and there is nothing wrong with that.

Lukas was the mentor for the top trainers in the game today. I would say that he was doing something correct.

Again, I think it is good he is back with a small stable that he is personally supervising. I guess we will wait for the Oaklawn stats to decide this.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

leading breeders cup trainers by money won

no 1 d wayne lukas starters 145 1st 18 2nd 20 3rd 15 4th 9 5th 12 6th 12

total moneys won up to 2006 19,645,520

hes in front by 16 wins and 9,000.000...id say hes done a good job..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I don't need a trainer's license to know that every time I bet one of his horses(or even just watch), the horse runs like a scalded dog either on the lead or pressing for most of the race, then folds up like a cheap suit at the quarter pole. His horses are rarely in the shape they need to be in order to win whatever races they are entered, and almost none of them know how to relax, whether they are trained that way, or the jockey is instructed that way by DWL.

every time?! that's a sweeping generalization, isn't it? the man has won everything you can win, some races many times over...he was at the top of this game for many many years. no one can sustain a career at the very top for ever. he set the bar incredibly high-so high that even he couldn't sustain that pace. but then, who can?

Time has mellowed me toward Mr. Lukas. I prefer to think of him as the trainer of one of my all-time favorites Serena's Song, and keep it at that. DWL kept her racing at the highest level as one of the best distaffers in recent memory. He had to be doing something right.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

every time?! that's a sweeping generalization, isn't it? the man has won everything you can win, some races many times over...he was at the top of this game for many many years. no one can sustain a career at the very top for ever. he set the bar incredibly high-so high that even he couldn't sustain that pace. but then, who can?

In another post you compared him to an athlete such as Michael Jordan. The proper comparison would be to a coach, not an athlete. Trainers and coaches don't lose their skills when they turn 70. I don't think his downfall has anything to do with his age.

As I've said a number of times before, Lukas was way ahead of his time when it came to pharmacology. He was one of the only guys that had all of his horses on steroids back in the 1980s. Now all trainers pretty much use steroids. Do you have any idea what a huge advantage you would have if you were the only one using steroids? All of Lukas' 2 year olds were as big and strong as 3 year olds. His 3 year olds were physically as mature as 4 year olds. That's why he was winning everything in sight. Before you knew it, he had all the biggest owners. He was outspending everyone by 10x.

But once all the other trainers got caught up in terms of pharmacology, Lukas no longer had an advantage. He's been slowing going downhill ever since.

You keep saying that nobody can stay on top forever. We know that. Nobody expects someone to stay on top forever. But this isn't just a case of someone no longer being on top. This is a case of someone going from the top to the bottom. His win percentage is under 10%. And he still gets very good horses. He gets better stock than 99% of the guys out there. For the stock he gets, he does terrible.

Anyway, he has a terrible reputation for a reason. If you bring up his name around other trainers, they just shake their head in disgust. And it's certainly not out of jealousy. If they were going to be jealous, they would be jealous of the guys who are successful today such as Frankel, Mott, Pletcher, etc. If you bring up any of these names, people don't shake their heads in disgust.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I got into a group who owned part of a Lukas horse three years ago and we had absolutely no problem finding insurance for the horse. There is much more that goes into insuring a horse than just who the trainer is. I am neutral on Lukas. He has done some good for the sport and he has done some bad for the sport.

When a big time owner buys a horse and sends it to Lukas, they expect the horse to compete at the top. That is why you see so many of his horses in over their head. I think it is a combination of Lukas and the owner's expectations.

As far as breakdowns....well you can make numbers say what you want. The more horses you have in training the more that are going to breakdown. You also have to keep in mind that Lukas was the main trainer for Overbrooke who race offspring of Storm Cat. Everyone knows you cant keep them healthy no matter what. What would be interesting is to see how many of his breakdowns came from the Storm Cat family.

As far as Lukas not turning horses out, well that is semi-right. He is old school and there is nothing wrong with that.

Lukas was the mentor for the top trainers in the game today. I would say that he was doing something correct.

Again, I think it is good he is back with a small stable that he is personally supervising. I guess we will wait for the Oaklawn stats to decide this.

Pletcher's owners have high expectations. You don't see him constantly running horses way over their heads.

We all know that the more horses a trainer has, the more horses he will have breakdown. We all know that. The number of absolute breakdown is not relevant. It's the percentages that matter.

With regard to young assistant trainers, you're not going to have much of a chance to make it on your own unless you worked for a big-time trainer. If you work for a no-name trainer, how are you going to get any decent owners? It's only if you work for a big trainer that you will make contacts with big owners. Not only that, but the big trainers get the best assistants. The best young talent is obviously going to want to work for a big trainer. If Scott Blasi ends up going on his own and is a successful trainer, how would you explain his success? I would not explain his success as a result of Asmussen teaching him. The most obvious answer would be a combination of things. First, I would say that he was very talented to begin with and that is why Asmussen hired him. Then I would say that he made a lot of contacts while working for Asmussen.

You say that the reason Lukas doesn't turn out horses is because he is old-school? I wasn't talking about turning a horse just to give the horse a break. I was talking about turning a horse out that is hurt. If a horse has a minor injury that requires 60 days at the farm, most guys will turn the horse out. Lukas will not. He will just keep running the horse. I don't know how you can defend that.

You say that Lukas will now be personally supervising the training of his horses. For years, the joke was always that his horses would do much better when he wasn't around because his assitants were much better trainers than he was.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Pletcher's owners have high expectations. You don't see him constantly running horses way over their heads.

We all know that the more horses a trainer has, the more horses he will have breakdown. We all know that. The number of absolute breakdown is not relevant. It's the percentages that matter.

With regard to young assistant trainers, you're not going to have much of a chance to make it on your own unless you worked for a big-time trainer. If you work for a no-name trainer, how are you going to get any decent owners? It's only if you work for a big trainer that you will make contacts with big owners. Not only that, but the big trainers get the best assistants. The best young talent is obviously going to want to work for a big trainer. If Scott Blasi ends up going on his own and is a successful trainer, how would you explain his success? I would not explain his success as a result of Asmussen teaching him. The most obvious answer would be a combination of things. First, I would say that he was very talented to begin with and that is why Asmussen hired him. Then I would say that he made a lot of contacts while working for Asmussen.

You say that the reason Lukas doesn't turn out horses is because he is old-school? I wasn't talking about turning a horse just to give the horse a break. I was talking about turning a horse out that is hurt. If a horse has a minor injury that requires 60 days at the farm, most guys will turn the horse out. Lukas will not. He will just keep running the horse. I don't know how you can defend that.

You say that Lukas will now be personally supervising the training of his horses. For years, the joke was always that his horses would do much better when he wasn't around because his assitants were much better trainers than he was.

Does a horse named Keyed Entry come to mind as a horse than was put in spots that were over his head. And I am sure I can name more. I just dont feel like doing the research. Every top trainer has horses that run in races above their head.

And percentages DO NOT MATTER. It is the whole number that matters. If you have 10 horses and one breaks down then you are at 10%. If you have 200 horses and 20 breakdown then you are at 10%. You can make numbers say whatever you want. That is why you need to know the number of horses trained compared to the number that broke down. You look at the whole number.

I think assistant trainers learn a great deal from their mentor. That is how it is. U will get no argument from me that Lukas was blessed with talented assistant that may or may not be better trainers than him.

And again, we will see how well Lukas does down at Oaklawn. I don't care either way, but the man has won everything but the Triple Crown. I don't see how you can see he isnt any good.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Does a horse named Keyed Entry come to mind as a horse than was put in spots that were over his head. And I am sure I can name more. I just dont feel like doing the research. Every top trainer has horses that run in races above their head.

And percentages DO NOT MATTER. It is the whole number that matters. If you have 10 horses and one breaks down then you are at 10%. If you have 200 horses and 20 breakdown then you are at 10%. You can make numbers say whatever you want. That is why you need to know the number of horses trained compared to the number that broke down. You look at the whole number.

I think assistant trainers learn a great deal from their mentor. That is how it is. U will get no argument from me that Lukas was blessed with talented assistant that may or may not be better trainers than him.

And again, we will see how well Lukas does down at Oaklawn. I don't care either way, but the man has won everything but the Triple Crown. I don't see how you can see he isnt any good.

I said it is rare that Pletcher runs horses over their head. I didn't say it has never happened. But it is extremely rare.

Percentages don't matter? That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. Percentages are the most important thing. If a guy is a brand new trainer and he only has 10 horses and one of them breaks down, we don't have enough of a sample to make any clear conclusions. But when you have guys who have trained thousands of horses over 20 years, percenatges are extremely important. There is no way to twist the numbers. If one guy has 50 breakdowns per thousand horses and another guy only has 12 breakdowns per thousand horses, you would know that there is a problem with the guy who has 50 breakdowns per thousand.

I never said Lukas did everything wrong. He obviously did a lot of things right back in the 1980s. You have to do a lot of things right to be a successful trainer. You have to have good help, you have to be well organized, you have to have good vets, you have to know how to use your vets, you have to be able to attract owners, you have to be able to raise money, you have to be a good salesman and self-promoter, you need good people skills, etc. There are a ton of different factors. I think Lukas possessed practically all the qualities that a trainer needs to be successful. His biggest weakness was his actual training ability. But if you are a smart guy and you have great assistants and good vets, you can succeed even if you're not a very good trainer, especially if you are years ahead of practically all the other trainers in terms of pharmocology.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Does a horse named Keyed Entry come to mind as a horse than was put in spots that were over his head. And I am sure I can name more. I just dont feel like doing the research. Every top trainer has horses that run in races above their head.

And percentages DO NOT MATTER. It is the whole number that matters. If you have 10 horses and one breaks down then you are at 10%. If you have 200 horses and 20 breakdown then you are at 10%. You can make numbers say whatever you want. That is why you need to know the number of horses trained compared to the number that broke down. You look at the whole number.

I think assistant trainers learn a great deal from their mentor. That is how it is. U will get no argument from me that Lukas was blessed with talented assistant that may or may not be better trainers than him.

And again, we will see how well Lukas does down at Oaklawn. I don't care either way, but the man has won everything but the Triple Crown. I don't see how you can see he isnt any good.

he has won the triple crown, altho not with just one horse. he beat his derby winner with his preakness winner. i think at one point he won about 7 tc races in a row.
but i don't think he having steroids is the sole reason he won so much, there's more to it than that. and wasn't he a successful basketball coach, and then a QH trainer before taking off with thoroughbreds?


saw above about his work with serena's tune. he also did well with spain, who was the top $ earner for distaffers until azeri took the top spot away.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I said it is rare that Pletcher runs horses over their head. I didn't say it has never happened. But it is extremely rare.

Percentages don't matter? That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. Percentages are the most important thing. If a guy is a brand new trainer and he only has 10 horses and one of them breaks down, we don't have enough of a sample to make any clear conclusions. But when you have guys who have trained thousands of horses over 20 years, percenatges are extremely important. There is no way to twist the numbers. If one guy has 50 breakdowns per thousand horses and another guy only has 12 breakdowns per thousand horses, you would know that there is a problem with the guy who has 50 breakdowns per thousand.

I never said Lukas did everything wrong. He obviously did a lot of things right back in the 1980s. You have to do a lot of things right to be a successful trainer. You have to have good help, you have to be well organized, you have to have good vets, you have to know how to use your vets, you have to be able to attract owners, you have to be able to raise money, you have to be a good salesman and self-promoter, you need good people skills, etc. There are a ton of different factors. I think Lukas possessed practically all the qualities that a trainer needs to be successful. His biggest weakness was his actual training ability. But if you are a smart guy and you have great assistants and good vets, you can succeed even if you're not a very good trainer, especially if you are years ahead of practically all the other trainers in terms of pharmocology.

i think you pretty much summed up why he was able to be such a success--he put together a team effort and was able to train on a much grander scale than many other trainers. and it's what pletcher does now--obviously pletcher doesn't personally train all those horses, and neither did lukas in his heyday. baffert is another who is helped a WHOLE lot by his assistant trainers.
and it also explains why lukas is no longer such a force, he taught his students well and now they are following his lead--and he probably no longer has the drive to do what he did then. i can't imagine being the head of an operation like what he put together.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i think you pretty much summed up why he was able to be such a success--he put together a team effort and was able to train on a much grander scale than many other trainers. and it's what pletcher does now--obviously pletcher doesn't personally train all those horses, and neither did lukas in his heyday. baffert is another who is helped a WHOLE lot by his assistant trainers.
and it also explains why lukas is no longer such a force, he taught his students well and now they are following his lead--and he probably no longer has the drive to do what he did then. i can't imagine being the head of an operation like what he put together.

In a lot of ways, he was like a CEO and he obviously did an excellent job in running his company. But I think his strength was as a CEO rather than as a trainer. By the way, his son was an excellent trainer. Jeff was a very good horseman and a very bright guy. It's very tough to replace someone like that. When you lose someone like that, it really hurts your operation. A lot of these guys get lazy. D Wayne is not one of those guys.

I think that losing good assistants really hurts. I think it really hurt Ron McAnally to lose both Eduardo Inda and Lewis Cenicola.

I disagree with your contention that Lukas is no longer driven. He is incredibly competitive and I'm sure he is extremely frustrated right now. He's a workaholic. He's there every day. He works harder than some trainers in their 20s and 30s. There is a young trainer out here who shall remain nameless, that shows up to the track in the mornings about twice a week. A lot of these guys get lazy but D Wayne is not one of those guys.

If the media followed Cole Norman or Steve Assmussen around (as much as they did Lukas in his prime), and reported/or kept track of all the horses they break down AND give heart attacks to, their rate would exceed Mr. Lukas' tenfold. They make Wayne look like a saint.

Originally Posted by Cardus

And earlier in this thread, someone -- or perhaps a few people -- mentioned that Lukas places his horse's over their heads.

Do you remember when EVERYONE panned Lukas for running Serena's Song -- one of my favorites, too -- in the Black-Eyed Susan after she was scorched in the Derby after setting grueling fractions? NO ONE thought it was a good idea.

She rolled by nine.

Yes, I remember that. How about running Surfside against the boys in the Clark, thus her winning the Eclipse as best three-year-old filly! I think he has been particularly strong with fillies.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cardus

He has been exceptional with fillies at both two and three-year-olds. Numerous times he dominated the BC Juvenile Fillies... one of my favorites was when Flanders and Serena's Song dueled through the Churchill Downs stretch in '94.

"Don't count Flanders out yet!"

What a race!

What was even more exciting about that was the complete disinterest Lukas showed in Flanders after the race when she broke down.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What was even more exciting about that was the complete disinterest Lukas showed in Flanders after the race when she broke down.

What did you want him to do?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

What did you want him to do?

Give a **** that his filly just broke down.

But hey, that's just me, a goofy softy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cardus

As soon as I posted, I was waiting for someone to write, "You could count her out immediately after the race," or something like that.

That isn't at all what I said and what I was referring to was a well known incident where Lukas showed callous disregard for his horse's welfare on national TV after she had just broken down. John Veitch, who was commentating, was unimpressed with Lukas's nonchalance as well as I recall.

At least I give Lukas credit for not being a phony.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That isn't at all what I said and what I was referring to was a well known incident where Lukas showed callous disregard for his horse's welfare on national TV after she had just broken down. John Veitch, who was commentating, was unimpressed with Lukas's nonchalance as well as I recall.

At least I give Lukas credit for not being a phony.

Frankel isn't everyone's cup of tea, but one of the reasons I like him is the fact that he has so much emotion over the horses he cares for. Zito is the same way, ask him about a horse under his care and his face lights up.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't know if Lukas did that or not, because I didn't see it. But you would think a normal reaction would be to run to the horses aid. Like Matz did with Barbaro.

Who is to say what a normal reaction is. Maybe isnt the type of person to rush to aid. Maybe he was stunned. Who knows, but to say that he didnt care without knowing what was going on in his mind is very calous. Who even knows when Lukas knew that Flanders was hurt. The horse wins and gallops out - the last thing on his mind was the possibility of the horse being injured. It wasnt like an injury to Barbaro where the horse was pulled up.