Most Talented 3yo since the 90's?

[sham]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

As u know, I agree with u to an extent. Now most people will say I'm knocking Sec and that's not true. I do believe that he was one of the all-time greats just nowhere near the best ever. Probably not even top 10. I think it's just mostly mystique nowdays that make people want to list him in their top two or three ever. That Belmont race was a freak effort. He was NOT a 2:24 horse. Look at his Woodward and the turf race to get a better idea of how he was at 12f. Still good but not otherwordly. And just imagine if there had been a horse in the Belmont capable of going in 2:27. Then Sec's margin of victory would have been "only" 15. While still dominant, the perception wouldn't be the way it is today because it was 31 lengths. And who knows what he would have done as a 4yo? It's not a guarantee that they automatically improve. The way he ran as a 3yo could suggest that he was already at his peak. If u are going to say he would have improved, would we then have expected 1:57 10f races, 2:23 12f races, or 1:31 miles? Doubtful. And I think it's a mistake to overlook the fact that he lost two of three races when facing older horses on dirt and although he did run 1:45 2/5 in the Marlboro, remember it's Belmont and one-turn and good horses run fast times there. I have seen Go for Wand and Dispersal run 1:45 4/5 there. Secretariat was great. There is no doubt about that. But still overrated.

Perhaps you could share with us ten 3yos that were better than Secretariat.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by sham

Perhaps you could share with us ten 3yos that were better than Secretariat.

I've debated this for...well, since 1973. Secretariat was the greatest horse to ever set foot on a track...period! All you had to do was see him run to appreciate him...there was no PR campaign, no smoke and mirrors, just pure talent! I won't post in this thread again as folks have their minds made up one way or another...I've given the stats hundreds of times, broken down every race...some folks have an argument for every fact...so be it! He ran a 2:24 in the Belmont...to say he wasn't a 2:24 horse is ridiculous...he ran the race! And Sham was fully capable of running a 2:25...but not after going under 1:10 for 6f...pace makes the race and Secretariat's pace that day reduced the others to also-rans...name me a horse that could have run with him that day? Sham would run the likes Point Given, Sunday Silence and the other so-called "better" horses into oblivion, only Tiznow of the recent runners would possibly best him, and he would have to catch him!

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I've debated this for...well, since 1973. Secretariat was the greatest horse to ever set foot on a track...period! All you had to do was see him run to appreciate him...there was no PR campaign, no smoke and mirrors, just pure talent! I won't post in this thread again as folks have their minds made up one way or another...I've given the stats hundreds of times, broken down every race...some folks have an argument for every fact...so be it! He ran a 2:24 in the Belmont...to say he wasn't a 2:24 horse is ridiculous...he ran the race! And Sham was fully capable of running a 2:25...but not after going under 1:10 for 6f...pace makes the race and Secretariat's pace that day reduced the others to also-rans...name me a horse that could have run with him that day? Sham would run the likes Point Given, Sunday Silence and the other so-called "better" horses into oblivion, only Tiznow of the recent runners would possibly best him, and he would have to catch him!

I agree with you about Secretariat. Nice to see the facts to back up your position.
I don't know where this thread made a turn towards the rail, and you can correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the title of this thread "Most talented 3yo since the 90's"? Hmmmm.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

I agree with you about Secretariat. Nice to see the facts to back up your position.
I don't know where this thread made a turn towards the rail, and you can correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't the title of this thread "Most talented 3yo since the 90's"? Hmmmm.

Yep, always has to get off topic, doesn't it? I still stand by my two choices though... Holy Bull and Point Given.

[JJP]

Talent is meaningless. Its all about accomplishment. To many, Easy Goer was more "talented" than Sunday Silence. Yet SS accomplished more. People are obsessed with raw talent. The QB who can air it out 70 yards, the MLB pitcher who can hit the high 90s on the radar gun, the WR with 4.3 speed. But what good is it if the results aren't there?

[boswd]

Yeah that post by both King Glorious and Dixie Porter had to have been the most foolish post I have ever read.

Wins the the Triple Crown by setting Stakes records in all three races that still hold up today. Wins the Belmont by 31 lengths. YEAH. OVERRATED!!! Unbelievable someone can actually think that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by boswd

Yeah that post by both King Glorious and Dixie Porter had to have been the most foolish post I have ever read.

Trust me...it'll get curiouser and curiouser.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Trust me...it'll get curiouser and curiouser.

Usually does, especially when they forget to take their meds.

[boswd]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Trust me...it'll get curiouser and curiouser.

I am going to go out on a limb and say that at least one of them is from the West coast. I have no idea where there from but it's a hunch.

[sham]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I've debated this for...well, since 1973. Secretariat was the greatest horse to ever set foot on a track...period! All you had to do was see him run to appreciate him...there was no PR campaign, no smoke and mirrors, just pure talent! I won't post in this thread again as folks have their minds made up one way or another...I've given the stats hundreds of times, broken down every race...some folks have an argument for every fact...so be it! He ran a 2:24 in the Belmont...to say he wasn't a 2:24 horse is ridiculous...he ran the race! And Sham was fully capable of running a 2:25...but not after going under 1:10 for 6f...pace makes the race and Secretariat's pace that day reduced the others to also-rans...name me a horse that could have run with him that day? Sham would run the likes Point Given, Sunday Silence and the other so-called "better" horses into oblivion, only Tiznow of the recent runners would possibly best him, and he would have to catch him!

You get only agreement from me. Secretariat also grades-out as the best 3yo in every analysis I have done. His closest competitor is Man O'War and they were pretty much even in my opinion. My data base is limited to only horses that raced in the US since 1900. I have no idea how the horses stack-up Euros vs. US for example. The best female...Ruffian...and it's not even close as to 2nd best among the ladies. I also don't compare 3yos to the 4&up group. Elders have a definite advantage...about 4 lengths on average at a reference distance of 10fl. Many, when comparing the past greats, forget about this fact. Secretariat and Spectacular Bid is a good case in point. Those that consider Bid to be better than Red are remembering the 4yo Bid and the 3yo Secretariat. As 3yo to 3yo, Secretariat ran several lengths faster than Bid on average. As to the chances that Secretariat would have improved had he raced as a 4yo?...It works out like this. 70% of horses that go on to race as elders improve their average run times. Of the remaining 30%, many have injury related issues. This means that the odds that Red would improve is greater than 70 percent. Actually, he would have needed no improvement to defeat all but a very small number of the very best past greats. I apologize for getting off topic.

[todko]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Just a reminder, Smarty ran the following fractions in the Belmont:
24 2/5, 48 4/5, 1:11 3/5, 1:35 2/5, 2:00 2/5....before struggling home in 2:27 3/5.
That means his first half mile was in 48 4/5
The second suicidal half he ran in 46 3/5 including 22 4/5 for the two furlongs between 4-6f
so...2f splits: 24 2/5, 24 2/5, 22 4/5, 23 4/5, 25, 27....horses can't do that second half in a 12f race and survive!

I was a big fan of Smarty but did bet Birdstone also that day. Birdstone had the rest, the breeding, the trainer, plus the price.

The thing we forget, is what Birdstone was doing during those fractions. He wasn't exactly standing still either. He ran a very good race and may have won anyway. With slower middle fractions Smarty might have had more left and won -- but then maybe Birdstone would have tackled him earlier and won in a long duel. It's tough to say. Zito had Birdstone primed that day.

It seems that right now both Smarty and Birdstone are almost never mentioned in the press.

Smarty was a hell of a horse who brought serious game every time he was in the gate. Some of his races as a two year old were stunning.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by JJP

Talent is meaningless. Its all about accomplishment. To many, Easy Goer was more "talented" than Sunday Silence.

not likely to acomplish much without talent...
and this thread asked for an opinion on talented 3yo not necessarily most accomplished..

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by sham

You get only agreement from me. Secretariat also grades-out as the best 3yo in every analysis I have done. His closest competitor is Man O'War and they were pretty much even in my opinion. My data base is limited to only horses that raced in the US since 1900. I have no idea how the horses stack-up Euros vs. US for example. The best female...Ruffian...and it's not even close as to 2nd best among the ladies. I also don't compare 3yos to the 4&up group. Elders have a definite advantage...about 4 lengths on average at a reference distance of 10fl. Many, when comparing the past greats, forget about this fact. Secretariat and Spectacular Bid is a good case in point. Those that consider Bid to be better than Red are remembering the 4yo Bid and the 3yo Secretariat. As 3yo to 3yo, Secretariat ran several lengths faster than Bid on average. As to the chances that Secretariat would have improved had he raced as a 4yo?...It works out like this. 70% of horses that go on to race as elders improve their average run times. Of the remaining 30%, many have injury related issues. This means that the odds that Red would improve is greater than 70 percent. Actually, he would have needed no improvement to defeat all but a very small number of the very best past greats. I apologize for getting off topic.

Not to belabor the "off topic"...

Distance Man'O War Secretariat Margin

6 furlongs 1:11 1/5 1:09 4/5 +7 lengths
1 mile 1:35 4/5 1:33 2/5 +12 lengths
1 1/16 1:44 4/5 1:42 4/5 +10 lengths
1 1/8 1:49 1/5 1:45 2/5 +19 lengths
1 3/16 1:56 3/5 1:53 2/5 +16 lengths
1 ¼ 2:01 4/5 1:59 flat +14 lengths
1 3/8 2:14 1/5 2:12 1/5 +10 lengths
1 1/2 2:28 4/5 2:24 flat +24 lengths
1 5/8 2:40 4/5 2:37 4/5

Now back to "The most talented 3yo since the 90's"

[boswd]

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

Not to belabor the "off topic"...

Distance Man'O War Secretariat Margin

6 furlongs 1:11 1/5 1:09 4/5 +7 lengths
1 mile 1:35 4/5 1:33 2/5 +12 lengths
1 1/16 1:44 4/5 1:42 4/5 +10 lengths
1 1/8 1:49 1/5 1:45 2/5 +19 lengths
1 3/16 1:56 3/5 1:53 2/5 +16 lengths
1 ¼ 2:01 4/5 1:59 flat +14 lengths
1 3/8 2:14 1/5 2:12 1/5 +10 lengths
1 1/2 2:28 4/5 2:24 flat +24 lengths
1 5/8 2:40 4/5 2:37 4/5

Now back to "The most talented 3yo since the 90's"

Point Given

Raw talent: Holy Bull; Accomplishment: A.P. Indy; Potential: Bernardini

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Bold Reasoning

Raw talent: Holy Bull; Accomplishment: A.P. Indy; Potential: Bernardini

I know this is all opinions, so what makes you think Holy Bull had more raw talent than Bernardini?


You're Accomplishment selection could make for another very interesting topic; What sire has the most combined accomplishments? (sire & individual race record)

[pmayjr]

Seriously, if Lost in the Fog would've won the B.C. Sprint last year- Could you leave him out?

About Bernardini- It sucks that him and Barbaro weren't able to develop a rivalry. He (Bernardini) might be a better horse, but those 2 goin at it would've made for a great summer (if Barbaro wouldn't have been subsequently retired for any other reason already).

How can Secretariat be overrated when he wins the T.C.? The first one to do it in what was it? 25 years? So he lost some subsequent races. But the T.C. accomplishment should stand on it's own. It's not his fault if the competition level wasn't there. But with that being said... why is he even being brought up? "Since the '90s" is the topic here.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Seriously, if Lost in the Fog would've won the B.C. Sprint last year- Could you leave him out?

About Bernardini- It sucks that him and Barbaro weren't able to develop a rivalry. He (Bernardini) might be a better horse, but those 2 goin at it would've made for a great summer (if Barbaro wouldn't have been subsequently retired for any other reason already).

How can Secretariat be overrated when he wins the T.C.? The first one to do it in what was it? 25 years? So he lost some subsequent races. But the T.C. accomplishment should stand on it's own. It's not his fault if the competition level wasn't there. But with that being said... why is he even being brought up? "Since the '90s" is the topic here.

Because some would rather talk about hypotheticals, and some don't know much about racing since the days of Man of War and Secrtariat.
Bogus opinions and "maybe" races don't gain support.
Times are numbers, and that's a fact!

[todko]

There is some debate here about "talented" versus "accomplished". To me, the two go hand in hand.

The two go hand in hand because "talented" horses "accomplish" wins in major races. Sure, there are other talented horses who don't accomplish much (Ghostzapper at 3). It's a lot of conjecture to say such and such horse is so "talented" if the horse never actually wins anything major.

In the case of Ghostzapper, he made his case as an older horse more so than as a 3 year old due to nagging minor injuries in his 3 year old season. He was clearly one of the fastest horses ever. Since the '70s and early '80s (I was a kid then), his race in the Breeders Cup Classic clearly stands out as the most stunning performance I've seen.

Smarty Jones was very talented. His Preakness, coming after a Kentucky Derby win, was more impressive to me than a rested Bernardini's Preakness this year.

I don't think we saw anything near what Barbaro's talent really was. Derby fractions of :46 and change, 1:10 and change, and the 2nd fastest final quarter (only Secretariat ran a faster final) in Derby history. Never asked, never touched. Wins on turf, dirt, slop, you name it. Late foal -- 4/29. He had a lot of talent to show.

I'm not too high on Bernardini. Every race his main competition was injured (Barbaro, Sunriver, Bluegrass Cat) and his fractions in the Travers were nothing to write home about. And he was definitely urged in the Travers -- hit and urged. He only beat a staggering SNS by 5 lengths or so in the Preakness after skipping the Derby. Skipped the Belmont. Ran against nothing (with Sunriver and BC injured during races) since. His races looked more visually impressive than they really are. Maybe he'll prove me wrong later -- but I doubt it.

This year, other than Barbaro, Bright One is intriguing. 1:33 and change at CD for a mile. Saw him in person the following race and he is the real deal. He's a little green but he can fly.

Discreet Cat looks to be a possible freak. Definitely would have won the Travers with ease. Maybe he's a Ghostzapper type -- freakishly fast but cant' run very often.

Most talented 3 year old since 1990 -- probably go with Barbaro. 13th fastest Derby of all time -- 2nd fastest closing quarter. Came back on his toes nipping at the pony. It was like he was saying, "you call that a Derby? . . when we gonna race? . . . let's go around again". I don't think there was any 3 year since 1990 who could have beaten Barbaro at a distance.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by todko

Discreet Cat looks to be a possible freak. Definitely would have won the Travers with ease. Maybe he's a Ghostzapper type -- freakishly fast but cant' run very often.

Discreet Cat would " definitely " have won the Travers? With ease no less!