Most Powerful Handicapping Angles

[wapete]

I only have anecdotal research to support this angle, which may not be the "most powerful" or academic but has certainly had its share of success.

I'll be glad to share it with you but understand that it cannot be found in the PPs, it requires you to be at the paddock pre-race.

First Step - Take a good look at owners as they enter the paddock. Keep a keen eye on the owner's group for young wives, hot daughters, emirate airlines stewardess and other Boom-Ba-Latties.

Second Step - Identify which group of owners has the most "back-class" in their posse.

Third Step - When the Jockeys enter the paddock, confirm that the Jockey riding the horse owned by the group selected in the second step is also interested in "back-class." Hugs, oddly-long handshakes, wandering eyes are all clear signals.

Fourth Step - Place a large win wager with confidence on those connections, regardless of horse. As logic indicates, that jockey has a solid 10 minute post parade to think about "back-class" and the possibility of meeting those owners again in the winner’s circle. Based on my experience, by the time the gates open, that horse has about an 80% chance of winning.

[dean smith]

That last tip actually makes a lot of sense.

When the owner(s) and/or trainer has gone to the trouble of bringing in all his people (friends, family, best looking hoes, etc.), he's probably not thinking, "this will be great! So-and-so's flying in, we'll party all day at the track, I'll get a chance to show off a little, and hopefully we'll finish fourth."

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So you guys think a good angle to teach to newcomers to the sport is to watch the owners and their entourage in the paddock? Hypothetically speaking, if you actually knew who all the owners were for each specific race do you really think it matters how many people they have with them in the paddock? You're better off just playing numbers....

It's a great angle as long as the horse is stretching out after clunking up in a fast paced, but slow, sprint.

[Danzig]

if a thread called 'most powerful' runs three pages, you're best off reading the first page, as things would most likely get watered down a bit by now. i think it's a stretch to rely on who shows up to watch a horse run-the belmont usually has more folks there when someone is going for the triple crown, fat lot of good that's done us since affirmed.

[dean smith]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So you guys think a good angle to teach to newcomers to the sport is to watch the owners and their entourage in the paddock? Hypothetically speaking, if you actually knew who all the owners were for each specific race do you really think it matters how many people they have with them in the paddock? You're better off just playing numbers....

Tongue-in-cheek, DaHoss. I wasn't completely serious. No, I don't think newcomers should learn that sort of angle in a college course. That sort of knowledge will come later -- after they've washed out of school and hang out at the track everyday.

[dean smith]

Stop it. No one's serious on this one, DaHoss. But if you are confident your horse has a good shot to win, you might invite more pretty women to the track to share in your victory, which in your mind would make you somehow more of a man in their eyes. Aha! There it is! But like I wrote, my response was tongue-in-cheek. Wapete was more talking about the jockeys wanting so badly to meet up with these women again in the winner circle that they would do more to win the race. Obviously, I think he was making a joke to begin with as well.

[dean smith]

With that last post I lost "Les Bois" under my name and gained "Pimlico"! Wow. Is the home of The Preakness Stakes really that low on the thoroughbred racetrack totem pole?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the distance cut-back was mentioned, and while I like this angle in certain spots, its far from fool-proof. some cutbacks are too far or don't make sense, and on some circuits cutbacks don't work worth a damn period. on the contrary, on some circuit cutbacks do very well. you have to do your research.

two examples, last year if you did nothing other than make flat win bets on every horse at Keeneland going route to sprint, you would have made a tidy +16% roi. do the same thing last year at Arlington and you lose 35%, at Santa Anita you lose 45%.

so I guess i'm just saying it is a good angle, but it takes some work to find the spots where it is best used.

Good data, but hard to know if those diffs are just random or real. If you can show a positive roi for the previous year or two at Keenland, that would mean more. Or better yet, include some measure of the uncertainty in the +16% fig.

fwiw, my fav angle is betting against a claimer who won last time out but is racing again for the same claiming value.

--Dunbar

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So you guys think a good angle to teach to newcomers to the sport is to watch the owners and their entourage in the paddock? Hypothetically speaking, if you actually knew who all the owners were for each specific race do you really think it matters how many people they have with them in the paddock? You're better off just playing numbers....

there are some goofy angles like that. At Emerald Downs, former NFL player turned trainer Junior Coffey is one of them. If he's got his Super Bowl ring on, then run to the windows, because he's getting his picture taken!!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by dean smith

With that last post I lost "Les Bois" under my name and gained "Pimlico"! Wow. Is the home of The Preakness Stakes really that low on the thoroughbred racetrack totem pole?

Yes.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I like a horse who has demonstrated need-the-lead traits in the past and has been caught up in speed duels and faded at a given distance (say, for example, 6f) in recent starts, and is then stretched out a furlong in its next start.
I think the average schmo thinks that if the horse faded on the lead going 6f, it will surely fade going 7f. In reality, however, a need-the-lead type is often able to get the lead much more easily at the longer distance (depending of course, on the makeup of that particular race), which can often be the difference.

I think this is an excellent one and one that is often overlooked. The first horses that came to my mind were Commentator and Lion Heart.

Along the lines of studying people, I'd like to point out one that I used to use a long time ago. Back in his heyday, when he was running multiple horses all over the country, I'd love to find out where Wayne Lukas was. Wayne loves the camera and so my thinking was that he'd be where he thought he had the best chance of getting his picture taken and being on tv. The better he was dressed, the more I figured he liked his chances.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good data, but hard to know if those diffs are just random or real. If you can show a positive roi for the previous year or two at Keenland, that would mean more. Or better yet, include some measure of the uncertainty in the +16% fig.

fwiw, my fav angle is betting against a claimer who won last time out but is racing again for the same claiming value.

--Dunbar

I don't know what the uncertainty would be for that number at Keeneland, but you're right it could be an aberration because of the relatively small number of races run there in one year. there does seem to be a polytrack edge for cutbacks, if you exclude Arlington that is.

fyi, on your favorite bet against angle, i just ran a query for that scenario for last year and found that you're definitely right in avoiding that one.

[infield_line]

when a first line barn tries a young horse in an allowance or stakes without success(but showing some talent), they will be dropping them for a tag at a level that they should be very competitive. The idea is that Pletcher, Dutrow, Baffert, don't have time to play around with horses destined for the claiming ranks........ they want a claim.. today

I also love 3 year olds that have been on the shelf and given time to grow up after an initial race or two to gain some experience

I/L

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

claiming horses that have won at the level entered today after getting beat in a higher class race.

2nd time starters in msw that get a better post position ie 10 hole or wider to the 1-8 hole

[Payson Dave]

Mdn 1st or 2nd time starters who worked in company with and out finished a non-mdn... having a double out time after the wire of two eigths each of which is under 14 seconds