FOCUS RACE: 7/2-Churchill 8th

[Kasept]

I know many can't bet and some may not be able to get ready access to PP's of this, but I'd like to follow up on the concept floated by Fats, DrugS, Hossy, Andrew, Matt-O, et al, of disxcussing focus races...

8th Wednesday at Churchill hs makings of a dandy...

Churchill Downs 8th (4:56)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $43,100

1 Sinister Lanerie C J 118 LA
2 War Ruler Leparoux J R 118 L
3 Coach Ryan Borel C H 118 L
4 Niobrara Mena M 118 L
5 E Z Phone Home Theriot H J II 118 LA
6 Dr. Nick Hebert T J 118 LA
7 Knock Out Cat Bridgmohan S X 122 LA
8 Siena Canyon Sterling L J Jr 122 LA
9 Fit for a Fight Castanon J L 118 LA
10 The Darp Albarado R J 118 LA

[eajinabi]

What are focus races?

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

What are focus races?

I don't know either but here are the pp's...

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_115552.pdf

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I know many can't bet and some may not be able to get ready access to PP's of this, but I'd like to follow up on the concept floated by Fats, DrugS, Hossy, Andrew, Matt-O, et al, of disxcussing focus races...

8th Wednesday at Churchill hs makings of a dandy...

Churchill Downs 8th (4:56)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $43,100

1 Sinister Lanerie C J 118 LA
2 War Ruler Leparoux J R 118 L
3 Coach Ryan Borel C H 118 L
4 Niobrara Mena M 118 L
5 E Z Phone Home Theriot H J II 118 LA
6 Dr. Nick Hebert T J 118 LA
7 Knock Out Cat Bridgmohan S X 122 LA
8 Siena Canyon Sterling L J Jr 122 LA
9 Fit for a Fight Castanon J L 118 LA
10 The Darp Albarado R J 118 LA

ok, 3 of the 10 are coming straight from a maiden claimer, that is not a angle i will touch.... 3-4 other's are just in bad form right now, to me the most likely winner is the #7 Knock Out Cat

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

by Fats, DrugS, Hossy, Andrew, Matt-O, et al,

Can we do anything else to get these guys heads just a lil bit bigger?

[ninetoone]

Sinister for me at what I would think would be a nice price.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I don't know either but here are the pp's...

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...ans_115552.pdf

Thank you Gioia...

Originally Posted by eajinabi

What are focus races?

A featured event singled out where a discussion can unfold as to the pace scenario, contenders merits/faults, prospective odds and wagering strategies, etc.. By bringing up one specific event that everyone focuses upon, we could ideally help many better understand handicapping stategies/approaches. This 8th at CD is an ideal opportunity because you've got horses of the same age, with a perfect smattering of running styles, in various form cycles, coming together at the most fair distance there is...

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Can we do anything else to get these guys heads just a lil bit bigger?

Hard to say... But I'll take the 'over'.

What's so good about this race?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

What's so good about this race?

It's a very well-matched field. Should be an interesting betting race.

Originally Posted by Kasept

It's a very well-matched field. Should be an interesting betting race.

It's a very bad field. That's why it's well-matched.

[parsixfarms]

This looks like a pretty non-descript NW1X allowance. In a race that looks to have a lot of speed, I'd be inclined to look for a closer, but most of those are the horses that just broke their maidens for a tag.

I generally like to avoid the horses that have disappointed in stakes when they drop down to allowance company at a shortish price, but The Darp looks like the most likely winner. Purchased for a solid (for a Proud Citizen) $130,000 as a yearling, he was obviously well regarded from the beginning of his career (broke slow from the rail in a well-bet debut against subsequent SW Eaton's Gift), and he quickly advanced through the maiden ranks. After two failed, two-turn stakes attempts at the Fair Grounds, he ran in a far stronger NW1X in his last, when defeated by the Keeneland-loving, stakes-placed St. Joe. He draws a favorable outside post and should be able to stalk the early leaders under Albarado and pounce when the real running begins.

Of the likely closers, I'd probably take a shot at price with the steadily improving War Ruler. Given the typical Wilkes/Nafzger education in his career debut, he had a wide trip from an outside post in a "live" maiden race at Keeneland in his second career start (runner-up, Cherokee Artist, broke his maiden next out on Derby Day). Throw out a failed try on turf. Wilkes dropped him to $50,000 maiden claimers and added blinkers, and War Ruler responded with a strong close to win going away over next-out winner (and rival Wednesday) Niobara. If the speed collapses, he should be running late at a nice price for a trainer that has had a real strong meet.

Of the others: Sinister has been running in weak starter allowances; Niobara pressed very soft fractions in a maiden claiming 7F last out and faces much tougher task from class and pace perspective; E Z Phone Home's lone win came in an off-the-turf event at Belmont last fall, and while he could hit the board, I wouldn't take a short price on a horse that figures to be part of a strong pace; Dr. Nick was outrun in return and Romans, who has not been setting the world on fire, uses Hebert, not a positive sign; Knock Out Cat has the pedigree and connections to improve but he would need to improve significantly - and at an extended sprint distance - so taking a short price is not warranted; and Siena Canyon and Fit for a Fight look like pace factors (although I could take a shot with the improving Siena Canyon off his line against recent blow-out winner I. M. Boomer).

[MaTH716]

I like War Ruler too, 3rd start on conventional dirt and 2nd with the shades. It looks like there is a lot of speed in the race and I think he could sit off it and wait for the race to fall apart.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thank you Gioia...


A featured event singled out where a discussion can unfold as to the pace scenario, contenders merits/faults, prospective odds and wagering strategies, etc.. By bringing up one specific event that everyone focuses upon, we could ideally help many better understand handicapping stategies/approaches. This 8th at CD is an ideal opportunity because you've got horses of the same age, with a perfect smattering of running styles, in various form cycles, coming together at the most fair distance there is...


Hard to say... But I'll take the 'over'.

This should be done for almost every race at The Spa.....Brain storming sans the insults would help most of us be 's

Originally Posted by asudevil

This should be done for almost every race at The Spa.....Brain storming sans the insults would help most of us be 's

Not really.

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Not really.

I just gotta ask.. wtf is your avatar? A loaf of bread?

[GPK]

I love this concept.

Won't comment much without watching replays, but NIOBRARA seems interesting to me on paper. Willing to toss the debut and the sloppy race after that. Seems to have figured it out a little bit now with the last 2 and with only 4 races under his belt, certainly eligible to move forward again. Should be a decent price as well.

Will try and watch some replays and possibly comment further.

Thanks again guys. Great idea and looking forward to reading others take on this race.

[wac]

Thanks for this Steve!!!! ive always wondered how some on here look at races. Just from the initial posts here looks like a lot of people use the replays but i have a hard time finding them and being able to look at them and finding sites. Which one has the best "quaility" replays not grainy etc etc. im willing to pay but want to know which one is the best. I'll look at the race myself and post my thoughts as well. i like the idea of doing this with a "normal" race. ONce again thanks steve great idea!!!

[Bobby Fischer]

1Sinister (FL)8/1
2War Ruler (KY)6/1
3Coach Ryan (KY)8/1
4Niobrara (KY)10/1
5E Z Phone Home (FL)6/1
6Dr. Nick (KY)12/1
7Knock Out Cat (KY)5/1
8Siena Canyon (KY)12/1
9Fit For A Fight (KY)9/2
10The Darp (KY)7/2

GREAT ml odds. Fit for a Fight as 2nd choice is baffling.

[declansharbor]

My pick in this one would be COACH RYAN. I think he could sit a stalk and pounce trip. The cutback to 7 panels could also aid him as he'll be charging home, roping in the front runners. The fact that a red hot Amoss is his conditioner can only bode well, 3rd off the positive trainer switch. Looking for an improve off of his last two over this strip and his numbers are headed that way.

One horse I wouldnt touch with an enemies money is THE DARP. If he's good enough, I'll let him beat me, but at no way would I touch him at his expected low odds. I know he has a big class edge over the field, but when a horse loses some of his early footing just as he has, its usually not a good sign. Again, he takes a class plunge and maybe the freshening did him well, but I am inclined to look elsewhere.

TRI- Coach Ryan, Sinister, and War Ruler. Add Niobrara for the quad.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

My pick in this one would be COACH RYAN. I think he could sit a stalk and pounce trip. The cutback to 7 panels could also aid him as he'll be charging home, roping in the front runners. The fact that a red hot Amoss is his conditioner can only bode well, 3rd off the positive trainer switch. Looking for an improve off of his last two over this strip and his numbers are headed that way.

One horse I wouldnt touch with an enemies money is THE DARP. If he's good enough, I'll let him beat me, but at no way would I touch him at his expected low odds. I know he has a big class edge over the field, but when a horse loses some of his early footing just as he has, its usually not a good sign. Again, he takes a class plunge and maybe the freshening did him well, but I am inclined to look elsewhere.

TRI- Coach Ryan, Sinister, and War Ruler. Add Niobrara for the quad.

Nice call...you should have stopped after the first paragraph