monday gulf ,sa ,fg pick 4s - Page 4

SCUDSBROTHER · #61 01-15-2008, 05:05 PM

As far as wagering style goes,I think if ya wanna go thick,then ya better be able to go thin.Even if ya don't pick a winner(single,) then I think ya should be able to go 2 deep versus 3 deep,because you need to go 5 deep to get through tough races.2x5x3x3 (to me) is better than 3x3x3x3.........Some of this has to do with each individual's past history etc. I grew up with a guy who used to go to the track for one race,and bet $500 to win and place on one horse,and he stole 10k using his pop's atm card.He got kicked out of the house.He then spent a lot of time with Corey Nakatani's sister.Next thing I know he's arrested for murder,and he is probably still in prison.So,I am never gunna be a fan of large betting.I do think there is a vast difference between betting pick 3 tickets versus pick 4 tickets.I think handicapping will work pretty well for 3 races,but when you start talking 4 races,you get into the "**** happens" territory.

SCUDSBROTHER · #62 01-15-2008, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you are looking at it in somewhat the wrong way. It's not a case of making a " horses to watch " list as much as it is making careful notes of bias days, and then upgrading and downgrading horses when they return from those days based on their trips. It takes either detailed notes or a lot of replay watching when the horses come back but sometimes you will be surprised at all the hidden gems you will find.

A prolonged bias is a trip handicappers dream. You just have to be patient....the payoffs will come.

I got some dates.Like I said earlier, November 4th is a key date at OAKTREE. It really was difficult to get up if ya did't lay close up into the turn etc. Cherokee was best,and got 3rd.I think Street Boss was best, but was up against a strong bias.He may of injured alil something,but is working good again.Be tough Thursday( if the track doesn't have the same problem.) Solis is a f'n fossil though.

Bobby Fischer · #63 01-15-2008, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Are you really serious with this stuff?

serious question?

the 2 horse win bet was not as efficient as possible. Had it been perfect it would have been $115/$85 ratio (instead of $105/$95) out of the $200. At 2.1-1 and allowing for me to naturally be off a few dollars here or there, the pool change cost me about $20 additional profit.

Bobby Fischer · #64 01-15-2008, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

... How on earth is it a wise move to invest $200 into a race and basically bet short priced horses? The object is to win money and IMO that strategy is a sure fire way to lose in the long run.

Good question.

For that race it came down to deciding how likely I felt I would win with those two horses.
I was confident and felt that I had about 65% chance of winning covered.

The final price that I got from final odds would break even if I win 56% of the time.
Meaning as long as my opinion of confidence is accurate and higher than the 56% price, I am getting a good opportunity.

If I can buy a gallon of gas and a good cup of coffee for under $3.50 I take it.

SCUDSBROTHER · #65 01-17-2008, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I got some dates.Like I said earlier, November 4th is a key date at OAKTREE. It really was difficult to get up if ya did't lay close up into the turn etc. Cherokee was best,and got 3rd.I think Street Boss was best, but was up against a strong bias.He may of injured alil something,but is working good again.Be tough Thursday( if the track doesn't have the same problem.) Solis is a f'n fossil though.

Street Boss romps......11/4=key date

SCUDSBROTHER · #66 01-17-2008, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by merasmag

not only did i
1-not bet it but...
b-i like sa...she's already gone...was gonna drop her but thought she'd be a good test of the track....finished right where she should have

That horse is decent.Don't really understand how this guy can make a living as a trainer.Honestly,if Iwas to put % on it.He messes up 75% of horses he claims.20% of the claims stay as good as they were when he claimed them,and he improves 5% of the horses he claims.This horse is part of the 75% he has f'd up.Horse should miraculously wake up if she goes to another barn.