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  #41  
Old 04-14-2007, 09:25 PM
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SOREHOOF SOREHOOF is offline
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Polytrack Sucks!
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  #42  
Old 04-14-2007, 11:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Regardless, this edition of the Blue Grass, and probably everyone from now on, offers absolutely nothing predictive.

I'm not sure if I agree or disagree here but IMO the last 5-10 runnings of the Bluegrass have been far frompredictive. Millenium Wind and Sinister Minister looked like HOY candidates over the "old" Keeneland.
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  #43  
Old 04-14-2007, 11:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samarta
There was an inquiry, but no changes. I thought Nakatani said it best. He said it wasn't Prado's horse going out or Borel's horse lugging in, it was the slow fractions that caused it all. I think once he told that to the stewards it was a non issue.
Since when do slow fractions cause horses to crash into each other? In theory the most crashing should occur in exhausted animals after fast fractions, not those who have galloped for 7 furlongs.
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  #44  
Old 04-15-2007, 02:19 AM
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One thing Bailey said that stuck out was that if this race was run on dirt they would not end up all bunched up like this, a turf like finish for sure.

But then if it was on dirt who would have won?? Would Dominican come flying too late? Would SS have enuf left to finish? WHat about Great Hunter
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  #45  
Old 04-15-2007, 06:21 AM
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Steet Sense is a toss. Shot from the Tampa Bay effort. Horse had the long layoff due to physical issues. Even Carl said he wasn't doing well when they went to Florida. Comes back after layoff since November and grits it out in record time versus AGS.

Now people believe he will win at 10f in 3 weeks time. He was trying to win at Keeneland and if Dominican didn't have traffic issues and they went another furlong Dominican wins by 10.
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  #46  
Old 04-15-2007, 10:27 AM
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You do need to wonder if Street Sense can peak for the KD. Curlin will be the fav in the Derby.
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  #47  
Old 04-15-2007, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by todko
Steet Sense is a toss. Shot from the Tampa Bay effort. Horse had the long layoff due to physical issues. Even Carl said he wasn't doing well when they went to Florida. Comes back after layoff since November and grits it out in record time versus AGS.

Now people believe he will win at 10f in 3 weeks time. He was trying to win at Keeneland and if Dominican didn't have traffic issues and they went another furlong Dominican wins by 10.
I agree. In fact, I've got Dominican winning the triple crown. He will be Bernardini x 10.
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  #48  
Old 04-15-2007, 10:45 AM
todko todko is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
My first laugh of the day, thanks. Dominican had traffic issues? Where exactly? But the statement that takes the cake is that he wins by 10 if they went another furlong. How exactly can you determine this?
He didn't even get motoring until the last 1/16th. Was behind Street Sense and went around him with no difficulty. Watch the horses running out after.

Street Sense staggered off slow fractions. That's a dud on the first Saturday in May.
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  #49  
Old 04-15-2007, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by todko
He didn't even get motoring until the last 1/16th. Was behind Street Sense and went around him with no difficulty. Watch the horses running out after.

Street Sense staggered off slow fractions. That's a dud on the first Saturday in May.
The way I saw it, and I could be wrong (have been once or twice), is that Dominican was outrun by the leaders to the top of the stretch, then took advantage of the "bumper cars" game that Tuefelsberg created, and got up ONLY because Street Sense was bumped/bothered. Maybe we'll find out more in 3 weeks
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  #50  
Old 04-15-2007, 10:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by todko
He didn't even get motoring until the last 1/16th. Was behind Street Sense and went around him with no difficulty. Watch the horses running out after.

Street Sense staggered off slow fractions. That's a dud on the first Saturday in May.
Forgetting also, that Sense's biggest success has come as a one-run closer. Sitting just a few lengths off of a dawdling pace set by a vanity entrant wasn't exactly his typical running style. It reminded me a lot more visually of the Breeders Futurity last fall over the very same track, albeit with a different pace scenario. And we all know how that story ended.....

On Derby Day you won't find him tracking leaders three lengths off of fractions of 51.2 or 1:16.3 either.

I think he should have won, but it's not like the Derby is going to have the same ridiculous shape that this one did.
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  #51  
Old 04-15-2007, 10:57 AM
Samarta Samarta is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
Since when do slow fractions cause horses to crash into each other? In theory the most crashing should occur in exhausted animals after fast fractions, not those who have galloped for 7 furlongs.
That's just what he said and I tend to agree. Do you think it would have been the same had they gone out in 23 and 46? No way, they would have been more spread out and Street Sense and Great Hunter would have been battling down the stretch.
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  #52  
Old 04-15-2007, 11:11 AM
todko todko is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golfer
The way I saw it, and I could be wrong (have been once or twice), is that Dominican was outrun by the leaders to the top of the stretch, then took advantage of the "bumper cars" game that Tuefelsberg created, and got up ONLY because Street Sense was bumped/bothered. Maybe we'll find out more in 3 weeks
I can't wait. Street Sense was very mildly bumped. He staggered into Great Hunter and shut the door on him. Nafzger when asked, said he wouldn't put blinkers on Street Sense for the Derby. Why make the effort? Street Sense needs more than blinkers. Like maybe a new training program?

Dominican beats him again on the first Saturday in May. If they even run Street Sense. I think he scratches.
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  #53  
Old 04-15-2007, 11:14 AM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by todko
I can't wait. Street Sense was very mildly bumped. He staggered into Great Hunter and shut the door on him. Nafzger when asked, said he wouldn't put blinkers on Street Sense for the Derby. Why make the effort? Street Sense needs more than blinkers. Like maybe a new training program?

Dominican beats him again on the first Saturday in May. If they even run Street Sense. I think he scratches.
he scratches based on what?
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  #54  
Old 04-15-2007, 11:24 AM
todko todko is offline
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Teuflesburg hit Great Hunter didn't he? Looked like Street Sense did too.

Street Sense will get crucified in the Derby.
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  #55  
Old 04-15-2007, 11:26 AM
todko todko is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
he scratches based on what?
Comes out of the race bad. Doesn't have a 5 month layoff to work with. Has no chance to win. Lots of reasons.
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  #56  
Old 04-15-2007, 11:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brianwspencer
Forgetting also, that Sense's biggest success has come as a one-run closer. ...
I feel this way too. If memory serves, they told Mehrtens, on Assault, that "you have the fastest animal for 3/8 of a mile, but you've got to time your run." Something like that. Assult was considered a one run closer from what I read, he sure had a burst.

Curlin might be faster for a short distance. I think he put more ground between himself and Delightful Kiss in the stretch than did SS/AGS in the TB derby. Valid comparison?
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  #57  
Old 04-15-2007, 11:36 AM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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i just wonder how street sense will get crucified in the derby, if he's going to scratch for all kinds of reasons.
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  #58  
Old 04-15-2007, 12:16 PM
todko todko is offline
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If he runs he gets crucified. Pure and simple.

Whether he runs or not will depend on the usual battle between a trainer's ego and the facts. I say it's 50-50 whether he runs. If he does -- then more excuses and regrets.

This one has Bob and John written all over him.
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  #59  
Old 04-15-2007, 12:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by todko
If he runs he gets crucified. Pure and simple.

Whether he runs or not will depend on the usual battle between a trainer's ego and the facts. I say it's 50-50 whether he runs. If he does -- then more excuses and regrets.

This one has Bob and John written all over him.
What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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