No Wood for Circular Quay

[theiman]

I am guessing a weird angle on this.
His connections don't want to run him on the Big A track.

The main track opens today under rainy conditions. It will then be high temperatures in the 40's the next few days with lows in the 20's. The main track had a ton of problems last fall and I am guessing they are afraid of running him on that track. Wet, freeze, thaw on a track open for three days, that had a big question mark last November.

Thus Pletcher is now stuck as it seems he could find a race next week but doesnt want him going to the Derby on 3 weeks rest. Unless the Big A would write an Allowance race to get him a light tune up?

Most likely its an injury or sickness that we dont know of yet, but maybe its my angle.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by theiman

I am guessing a weird angle on this.
His connections don't want to run him on the Big A track.

The main track opens today under rainy conditions. It will then be high temperatures in the 40's the next few days with lows in the 20's. The main track had a ton of problems last fall and I am guessing they are afraid of running him on that track. Wet, freeze, thaw on a track open for three days, that had a big question mark last November.

Thus Pletcher is now stuck as it seems he could find a race next week but doesnt want him going to the Derby on 3 weeks rest. Unless the Big A would write an Allowance race to get him a light tune up?

Most likely its an injury or sickness that we dont know of yet, but maybe its my angle.

If he was worried about the track condition, then why would he take a chance running AGS there (who has a much better chance at winning the derby?)

[Thunder Gulch]

I can't believe Pletcher would jeopardize a relationship with Tabor to help another owner get earnings. Something is amiss.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by philcski

Keeneland opened 3 days later for 2-2.5x the MSW pot. If he ABSOLUTELY had to run, I understand it... needless to say, it was an excellent debut.

I agree, Pletcher even said that he knew AGS was classy when he got up to win that one sprinting when he knew he wanted a route.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I can't believe Pletcher would jeopardize a relationship with Tabor to help another owner get earnings. Something is amiss.

It seems tabor is fine with Rags to Riches having an 8 week layoff heading to the Oaks, so why not 8 weeks for CQ, too?

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I recently heard the exact opposite. Heard that Todd's main derby horse was Any Given Saturday, but that his sentimental fave was Scat Daddy. I got the impression that CQ wasn't as high up on the list as those two...

Steve had mentioned in a thread a few weeks ago that CQ was the barn pet, but Pletcher wanted to win with AGS (or at least, thought that was his strongest chance).

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Steve had mentioned in a thread a few weeks ago that CQ was the barn pet, but Pletcher wanted to win with AGS (or at least, thought that was his strongest chance).

Yep... we heard that from the same source.

[blackthroatedwind]

I think people are missing part of the equation. First, it makes obvious sense to run Any Given Saturday in the Wood as that is a likely spot for him to guarantee necessary Derby earnings, as there are basically only 1 1/2 other contenders in there, with NoBiz and maybe Summer Doldrums. As good as Any Given Saturday may be, and I think he's very good, the possibility of facing Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Blue Grass is simply a mathematically more difficult spot for a horse who NEEDS earnings to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Thus, Pletcher has clearly made the right choice shipping to the Wood. The funny thing is someone bringing up questions about the surface. The Big A main track is considered by the horsemen to be one of the best in the land, and though obviously the track super in NY screwed it up some last meet, just as he seemed unable to stop the inner from being a gold rail for most of the past four months, but there are NO indications it is not in fine shape now. However, many trainers are leary of the Hawthorne surface, saying it can be hard on horses, so that is very likely why Todd chose Aqueduct over the Illinois Derby.

However, why then not run Circular Quay in next week's Blue Grass? He handled the poly OK in the Breeder's Futurity, and as he doesn't need earnings, so what if he doesn't win, as theoretically what he should need is a prep. Is there another Pletcher horse now going in that race that needs earnings? I find this hard to believe as the race is very strong and a mediocrity doesn't seem likely to now crack the top contenders ( especially if he worried Any Given Saturday might not ). So, why not just run Circular Quay there? It seems the perfect " prep ". That is why I am suspect of his condition.

On the " who the barn favors ". Well, they do love Scat Daddy. He is the barn darling. However, Todd Pletcher is extraordinarily bright and he knows clearly if all horses are sound Scat Daddy is at best his third likeliest Derby winner behind Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay. You all are free to have whatever opinions you like, but Scat Daddy is a distant third choice to those two if all are healthy....and someone as sharp as Todd Pletcher is acutely aware of this. I would also believe that while it's nice to have as many bullets as possible, Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think people are missing part of the equation. First, it makes obvious sense to run Any Given Saturday in the Wood as that is a likely spot for him to guarantee necessary Derby earnings, as there are basically only 1 1/2 other contenders in there, with NoBiz and maybe Summer Doldrums. As good as Any Given Saturday may be, and I think he's very good, the possibility of facing Great Hunter, Street Sense and Hard Spun in the Blue Grass is simply a mathematically more difficult spot for a horse who NEEDS earnings to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Thus, Pletcher has clearly made the right choice shipping to the Wood. The funny thing is someone bringing up questions about the surface. The Big A main track is considered by the horsemen to be one of the best in the land, and though obviously the track super in NY screwed it up some last meet, just as he seemed unable to stop the inner from being a gold rail for most of the past four months, but there are NO indications it is not in fine shape now. However, many trainers are leary of the Hawthorne surface, saying it can be hard on horses, so that is very likely why Todd chose Aqueduct over the Illinois Derby.

However, why then not run Circular Quay in next week's Blue Grass? He handled the poly OK in the Breeder's Futurity, and as he doesn't need earnings, so what if he doesn't win, as theoretically what he should need is a prep. Is there another Pletcher horse now going in that race that needs earnings? I find this hard to believe as the race is very strong and a mediocrity doesn't seem likely to now crack the top contenders ( especially if he worried Any Given Saturday might not ). So, why not just run Circular Quay there? It seems the perfect " prep ". That is why I am suspect of his condition.

On the " who the barn favors ". Well, they do love Scat Daddy. He is the barn darling. However, Todd Pletcher is extraordinarily bright and he knows clearly if all horses are sound Scat Daddy is at best his third likeliest Derby winner behind Any Given Saturday and Circular Quay. You all are free to have whatever opinions you like, but Scat Daddy is a distant third choice to those two if all are healthy....and someone as sharp as Todd Pletcher is acutely aware of this. I would also believe that while it's nice to have as many bullets as possible, Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.

5 rattles.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

5 rattles.

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

Todd Pletcher probably makes less " dumb moves " than any trainer I have ever seen...and that is while making many more starts than most. Thus, there has to be a missing part of this story.

[theiman]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

If he was worried about the track condition, then why would he take a chance running AGS there (who has a much better chance at winning the derby?)

His connection being Tabor.
Tabor wanted his horses to train on cushion track at Hollywood.
I dont think he wants to gamble on the Big A surface.

Just an angle, most likely its not that.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

It seems tabor is fine with Rags to Riches having an 8 week layoff heading to the Oaks, so why not 8 weeks for CQ, too?

No one is suggesting that's such a brilliant move either.. But she won't be facing a field of 19 at 10f.. She may in fact not be facing even a field of 13 things that are considered opponents by a strict definition. It doesn't look like the Oaks group has any Gallorettes in it.. excepting perhaps her.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Todd Pletcher probably makes less " dumb moves " than any trainer I have ever seen...and that is while making many more starts than most. Thus, there has to be a missing part of this story.

The guy manages his barn with incredible detail and rarely starts horses where they cannot win (the Dubai trip with Honey Ryder nonwithstanding.)
There HAS to be something missing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

It seems tabor is fine with Rags to Riches having an 8 week layoff heading to the Oaks, so why not 8 weeks for CQ, too?

I'm not fine with it. Rags will be an underlay when she's 4-5 or so in the Oaks. I'll be looking elsewhere.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No one is suggesting that's such a brilliant move either.. But she won't be facing a field of 19 at 10f.. She may in fact not be facing even a field of 13 things that are considered opponents by a strict definition. It doesn't look like the Oaks group has any Gallorettes in it.. excepting perhaps her.

I agree with that, and it's obvious the Oaks is a far less demanding and difficult race (not to mention, less prestigous).

But until it's clear that CQ has some soundness issues that prohibit him from running in the Derby, I'll assume that he has Mr. Tabor's full support with this move and they think his conditioning level will be good enough to compete on May 5th. But I admit, it's wishful thinking because I'm a big fan of CQ.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat is no bigger a Derby contender than Byk and me in a horse suit. He's so slow that he is much more reminiscent of the animal in the first part of his name than the latter.

As I have said before while others were making their predictions for who would win the Derby, I don't know who will win it, but I guarantee that Cowtown Cat will make the field and finish EXACTLY 16th.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by philcski

I second that. Andy, you nailed it. Sending AGS to the Wood is the RIGHT move, from an earnings perspective as well as profile perspective... but why can't CQ at least run around the track in the Blue Grass if he's sound?!? Who cares if he finishes 3rd, 4th, 5th if it sets him up better for the big day (worked out just find for his charge last year)? Isn't that the point of a PREP?

For a guy as smart as Pletcher, he's making a really dumb move if CQ is sound enough to run this week or next and training him up to the Derby.

I do not approach second guessing trainers decisions. I try, instead, to just deal with them, rather than contemplating and expounding on them.

In this particular instance though, it appears that Pletcher is quite concerned about Keeneland's poly surface. From the last paragraph in the article reported by DRF, he will be noting this weekend's races.

This was my first and only thought on the deal. The surface.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I guarantee that Cowtown Cat will make the field and finish EXACTLY 16th.

WOW

What a bet to take here

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

dosent make since to me, i guess nobiz gets to beat any given saturday now

I wouldn't count on it. Street Sense and Any Given Saturday are the class of the 3yr old division.